NCAAB Play of the day: Duquesne Dukes at La Salle Explorers

The Duquesne Dukes are just 7-7 on the season but they have been red hot ATS, covering 6 straight games.   They build their brand on the defensive end ranking 65th in defensive efficiency, they give up just 65 ppg.   The Dukes had a three game win streak ended by Richmond this weekend, but they gave the Spiders all they could handle.  The Duke’s are led by a trio of seniors Marcus Weathers (14.9 ppg), Michael Hughes (11 ppg & 8 rpg), and Tavion Dunn-Martin (10.8 ppg).

La Salle has been on a horrible run, losing four straight games including a recent loss to St. Joe’s and a loss to Fordham.  The Explorers are just 160th in adjusted offensive efficiency and even worse on the defensive end ranking 250th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  La Salle will not be able to get anything going on offense.  The Dukes can slow down the pace and dominate the exterior and interior of the defensive end.  La Salle’s defense has been a problem all season and will continue on Wednesday night. 

This game features two teams going in opposite directions.  The Duke’s have been playing at a high level while the Explorers have had trouble even competing in games. Duquesne is led by seniors while La Salle is led by underclassmen.  This is going to be a low scoring affair that fits right into the mold of the game plan for Duquesne.  This game should be set more around a 6 point spread which means there will be value on the Duke’s

Play of the day: Duquesne Dukes -4 

NCAAB Play of the day: Robert Morris Colonials at Detroit Titans

The Robert Morris Colonials head to the Detroit Titans Friday night in a Horizon League matchup featuring two of the weakest defenses in all of college basketball.  Detroit and Robert Morris both rank worse than 280th in defensive efficiency in the nation.  Robert Morris in particular has given up at least 79 points in seven of their last eight games.  The Titans have scored over 80 points in three of their last four.

Robert Morris can’t guard the perimeter, they give up threes at 38% per game on the season.  The Titans are a great outside shooting team, as a team they shoot 38% from deep.  Detroit guard Antoine Davis leads the offensive attack, averaging 22 ppg, he has scored 23 points in five straight games..  Along with Davis Detroit features guards Noah Waterman and Bul Kuol, both are double digit scorers. Detroit doesn’t move quickly but they are all about efficiency on the offensive end.  

The Colonials give up 77 ppg on the season. Their offense has begun to catch up with their defense scoring 81 and 88 in their last two games. Guard AJ Bramah leads the offensive attack averaging 21 ppg and 10 rpg, they only feature one other double digit scorer but the offensive works well around Bramah and their recent offensive output makes them a real problem for the Titans defense.  

The Colonials and the Titans are both terrible on the defensive end.  They both can shoot the ball well from deep and it should be an easy flow for both offenses.  Detroit is a 9.5 point favorite that should be able to cover the spread, their offense should be able to get to 80 and Robert Morris is red hot on the offensive end.  This number is too low for how bad these defenses are. 

 Play of the day: Over 143.5

NCAAB Play of the day: Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

The Eastern Kentucky Colonels started the OVC season on a tear.  They started 7-0 in conference feasting on the lower tier of the conference.  Their run included a 10-point victory over their opponent on Monday night the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles.

Eastern Kentucky has been fast all season.  They rank in the top ten in tempo, they force teams to move at their pace which causes havoc for opposing offenses.  The Colonels force turnovers 24% of opposing offensive possessions. The ballhawking defense of Eastern Kentucky will be a huge problem for Tennesee Tech who turns the ball over at a 22.9% rate. Eastern Kentucky has multiple options to score with eight different players that average over seven points per game.  Their leading scorer is Tre King, averaging 15.7 ppg, as a team they are averaging 82.7 ppg on the season.  They are a high level offensive team that has a goal to dictate the pace of the game.  Versus the lower level teams in their conference their has been no answer for the fast paced action.  

Tennessee Tech was able to cover the 10.5-point spread in their first matchup of the season mainly due to their ability to hit the three.  The Golden Eagles were 15/31 from behind the arc, shocking numbers from a team that only shoots 30% from deep during the season.  The Golden Eagles snapped a six game losing streak in the OVC with a victory over Eastern Illinois but they are up against a much tougher offensive team on Monday night.  They will need a similar effort from deep to compete with the high paced Colonels offensive attack.

Eastern Kentucky has fallen off a cliff since their hot start to the season but they are still a much better offensive team then Tennessee Tech.  The Colonels are solid on the road with a 7-3 record ATS, they are facing a team that has given up an effective field goal percentage over 50% on the season. Having confidence in the Colonels is tough but they are a much better team, I actually took this game at -9, you can now get it at -7.5 and I would jump on that line.

Play of the day: Eastern Kentucky Colonels -7.5

NCAAB Play of the day: Ohio Bobcats at Central Michigan Chippewas

The Ohio Bobcats are on a 3 game winning streak, that has been led by the return of their star guard Jason Preston.  With Preston on the court the Bobcats are a lethal offensive team ranking 27th nationally in effective field goal percentage at 55.1% on the season.  Preston is a stat stuffer that leads the offense in multiple categories, his ability to penetrate the defense opens up multiple passing lanes that create easy shots for his teammates.  The matchup with the dreadful Central Michigan Chippewas defense should turn into a showcase of the Junior point guard’s skills.  He is currently leading the Bobcats in points (16.4) and assists (7.5), second in rebounds (6.9), while shooting over 50% from the field.  With Preston on the court the Bobcats are a force in the offensive minded MAC. 

Central Michigan has allowed 78 ppg this season ranking near the bottom of all division 1 basketball.  They have given up 81, 89 and 83 over their past three games, all losses.  Overall Central Michigan has lost 7 of 9 in conference.  On the season they are just 4-7-2 against the spread, losing three straight numbers.  The Chippewas defense has had issues defending the interior, defensively they give up 52.6% on 2-pt field goals.  Ohio averages 55.8% from inside the 3-pt arc, ranking them top 20 in the nation.  

The Chippewa’s defensive issues will be on full display on Tuesday night.  They haven’t stopped anyone the entire season and the Ohio Bobcats with Jason Preston have been a juggernaut, running through everyone in front of them.  Central Michigan will not be able to stop Preston’s penetration.  Bobcats will win by double digits with ease.  

Play of the day: Ohio Bobcats -8

NCAAB Picks 2.15.19

Clemson Tigers at Louisville Cardinals -4.5, Under 131.5

Louisville enter this game on the wrong side of one of the biggest and most televised come backs of the season. The Cardinals came out on fire against the highly rated Blue Devils but were unable to handle the late pressure and dynamic offensive weapons.  They face a different challenge on Saturday with the Clemson Tigers in need of a marquee victory to put themselves back in contention for the NCAA tournament.

Like Louisville, Clemson is coming off a weekday loss to the Miami Hurricanes.  The loss brought an end to the Tigers four game win streak which saw them reemerge as a potential contender in the top heavy ACC. 

Chris Mack has proven his toughness as a coach and his team will back him up on Saturday. Clemson, despite being 21st in scoring defense, has their struggles with perimeter teams as they rank a dismal 279th in three-point field goal percentage defense (35.9 percent) this season. This will be a slow-paced game that will be controlled by the superior strength of Louisville’s Dwayne Sutton and Jordan Nwora.  I like the Cardinals to cover and the under

Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Wolverines -6

First instinct says that the Michigan Wolverines are getting to many points against a Maryland team that has taken two straight from Nebraska and the red-hot Purdue Boilermakers.  The difference for Maryland will be the defensive juggernaut Michigan.  John Teske and company will look to force the ball out of the hands of Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, packing the defense on the interior and force the guards to make plays.

Michigan is 15-0 at home, Maryland has while Maryland is 0-18 on the road against top 25 teams.  Michigan is 9-1 ATS after a straight up loss. I see Maryland struggling on the road against causing a double-digit loss.

Tennessee Volunteers +3 at Kentucky Wildcats

Despite Tennessee’s record their still seems to be some debate about whether they are at the top of the SEC pecking order.  Entering this game as a 3-point dog seems like a bit of a surprise. The Volunteers will bring their veterans into a hostile environment that they have seen before.

On the season, the Volunteers are fifth in the nation with 85.4 point per game, while also just allowing 68.5 points per contest. They are also efficient with their shots, making them even more dangerous.  Tennessee is seventh nationally with a high 57.0 effective field goal percentage.

The Wildcats have made big improvements since their beatdown on opening night. They will be a force to reckon with in March but for now this Tennessee team is on a mission to dominate the SEC.  Grant Williams will be the player to watch, Kentucky will have no answer for him on Saturday.  Bet the Volunteers, consider the moneyline.

Other games:

Auburn -9.5

Drake -5         

Virginia Tech/ Pittsburgh over 133

UCF/ Memphis under 150