College Basketball Betting Picks

NCAAB Play of the day: Lipscomb Bison at Jacksonville Dolphins

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The Jacksonville Dolphins are losers of 7 straight games.  They have lost the last five games by an average of 13.4 ppg.  Jacksonville is a dumpster fire on offense, averaging just 66 ppg and average a turnover in 20% of their offensive possessions.  The Dolphins offense doesn’t get much from deep, shooting just 31% from three.  Jacksonville’s only offense comes from forward Dontarius James averaging 17 ppg.  Even with the offense of James the Jacksonville Dolphin are ranked 337th in the nation in offensive efficiency.  

The Lipscomb Bison looked like they were turning things around in early January getting two straight victories over Bellarmine. They followed that up with a 4-3 record, sitting in the middle of the Atlantic Sun Conference.  The Bison have a dynamic backcourt tandom in KJ Johnson and leading scorer Romeao Ferguson.  Ferguson and Johnson both shoot over 44% from three, as a team the Bison shoot 37% from behind the arc.  They are archored in the middle by Ahsan Asadullah, averagin 13 ppg, 7 rpg and a team leading 3 apg.  

Lipscomb’s defense is not stellar, but it doesn’t take a great defensive unit to keep Jacksonville in check.  The Dolphins don’t do anything well.  They don’t shoot well from three  and are one of the worst teams in the nation at the free throw line.  Lipscomb’s offense isn’t elite other than their long range shooting but they do rank 105th in effective field goal shooting which is enough to put pressure on a Dolphins team that is unable to put the ball in the basket.  The Bison are the better team and all tehy have to do is stop Dontarius James to be successful. Easy cover for Lipscomb. 

Play of the day: Lipscomb Bison -5 

NCAAB Play of the day: Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal

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Colorado has the leadership of one of the best guards in the country McKinley Wright.  Wright has been amazing this season averagin 14 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists.  He has a great backcourt mate in D’Shawn Schwartz who is shooting 40% from three on the season.  As a team Colorado is shooting 38% on the season which is tied for the best mark in the Pac12. The Buffaloes have a solid interior presence with Evan Battey, who had a stellar performance against Stanford in their first meeting scoring 13 points and adding 12 boards.  Colorado’s defense has had its issues defending the three, luckily for them they are facing the worst three point shooting team in the Pac12.

Since the loss of Daejon Davis the Stanford Cardinal have had an issue turning the ball over.  They are the worst in the Pac12 giving the ball away nearly 20% of the time.  Freshman Zaire Williams has come back to the team in a limited role as he recovers from an injury. The young forward  was great against Colorado in their first game, putting up 17 points in 33 minutes.  Without him the Stanford offense has struggled, losing 5 points per 100 possessions with him out.  Oscar Da Silva and Jaden Delaire have both stepped up in the absence of Williams, to find the offense they will have to lean on their frontcourt and play the slow game.  

Colorado is an efficient offense with a point guard advantage.  The Cardinal without Daejon Davis have not been the same offense.  They don’t have the guards to handle the pressure of an elite level defense.  Bryce Wills return will help the offense avoid the turnover bug, but they still have a lot of issues if he can’t play a full allotment of minutes.  The Buffaloes will take care of business on defense and their offense is efficient enough to put up points.  

Play of the day: Colorado Buffaloes Pick 

NCAAB Play of the day: Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

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Big Ten basketball is about as unpredictable as any conference on any night.  On Monday night we get a matchup between the rising Ohio State Buckeyes and the upset minded Maryland Terrapins. 

The Terps are literally a box of chocolates, never knowing what you are going to get.  They feature wins over Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all are great individual wins in a season where they are just 10-9 overall.  Maryland has a lot of talent, they are led by Junior guard Eric Ayala who is coming off of his best game of the year putting up 23 points in their loss to Penn State Friday night. The Terps were not impressive in their their loss Penn State, they only put up 50 points in a matchup with a weaker defensive unit in the Nittany Lions.  They will have to find more points if they want keep up with one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are on a roll. The Buckeyes have established themselves as the top of the food chain in the loaded Big Ten winning 7 of 8 and sitting just behind Illinois and Michigan for the top overall record in the conference.  The Buckeyes have a dynamic connection between EJ Liddell and Duane Washington, either one has the ability to take over a game at any moment. The offense has been on a tear scoring at least 74 points per game in four straight, if they are able to reach 70 that could be well out of the range for the Terps as they live up to their namesake with one of the slowest paces in the Big Ten. 

The Buckeyes are able to run their offense through EJ Liddell in the post.  Maryland won’t have a big that can hang with him,  they will be forced to pack the defense in, allowing the Ohio State motion offense to work around the athletic Maryland wings.  Ohio State has been efficient on offense ranking top five in the country in offensive efficiency.  Maryland’s experience and athletes will keep this one tight but Ohio State is awesome from the free throw line and should lock this one down in the end.  

Play of the day: Ohio State -3.5

NCAAB Play of the Day: Seton Hall Pirates at Providence Friars

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A matchup between two of the most confusing teams in college basketball will take place on Wednesday night with the Seton Hall Pirates face off against the Providence Friars.  This Big East showdown could be a potential eliminator for a shot at a birth in the NCAA tournament.  

Seton Hall is coming off of one of the toughest stretches of any team in the country.  Playing Villanova, Creighton and Villanova over their current three game losing streak.  The Pirates have been a predictable team when it comes to SU wins and losses.  They have beaten the teams they should and lost to the teams they should.  With no marquee wins on their resume they cannot afford another let down to a mid-tier Big East foe.  They have done most of their damage offensively this season by penetrating the paint and making things happen.  Currently they rank in the top 25 in offensive efficiency and effective shooting percentage.  They get to the foul line a lot and shoot at a high percentage.  

Providence is coming off of a loss to Georgetown, where they blew a ten point second half lead.  The Friars lean on the two man show of guard David Duke and center Nat Watson, both average double digits and take over a large amount of the usage rate on the offense.  In the first matchup with Seton Hall they were able to combine for 41 points and 21 rebounds.  The Friars are a strange statistical team, they rank 199th in effective field goal percentage, yet they rank top 50 in adjusted offense according to Kenpom.  They have the ability to put the ball in the hoop but they will be without a key component in point guard Jerad Bynum who sliced up the Seton Hall defense last time they played scoring 9 points and adding 8 assists. 

Providence was able to defeat Seton Hall in their first matchup of the year because they shot 9-18 from three and the Friars had Jerad Bynum.  Seton Hall has issues defending the three but without Bynum the Friars won’t be able to penetrate the defense as easiliy which should allow the Pirates guards to stay home on the shooters.  Seton Hall is in need of a win and they will lean on their star Sandro Mamukelishvli.  This game has a -1.5 spread,  I would lean going with the spread but I figure why not just go ML to be safe.  

Play of the day: Seton Hall ML (-130)

NCAAB Play of the Day: Bradley Braves at Valparaiso Crusaders

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Two middle tier Missouri Valley teams face off in what looks to be a defensive minded affair between the Bradley Braves and the Valparaiso Crusaders.

The Bradley Braves enter this contest on a 3-game conference losing streak, falling short of taking down conference favorite Loyola-Chicago in a two game set and dropping a shocking game to Illinois State in a spot where they were clearly looking ahead.  They have had time to process the loss and now get a matchup with a low scoring Valpo team. Bradley ranks 81st in defensive efficiency in the country and  will stifle a Valpo offense that has scored under 69 points in 4 of 5 games.  

On the offensive side of the ball Bradley will have the best player on the court in Senior forward Elijah Childs averagin 14 points and 7 rebounds per game.  He is a do it all player on the offensive end and should be able to carry the load for the Braves.  The emergence of Junior guard Terry Nolan Jr. has been a big part of establishing the Braves offense along with Childs, Nolan has been shooting a respectable 35% from three for the season.  Bradley hopes to have Ja’Shon Henry backin the lineup, his 11 ppg and 60% shooting have been missed over the last three games.  If he is not able to go they should still be able to muster enough offense to grab an early lead and utilize their defense to hold down a Valpo team that has no one outside of Sophmore forward Ben Krikke that has been reliable on offense. 

Bradley’s defense will be too much for the struggling Crusader offense.  Bradley doesn’t allow you to score inside and their perimeter athletes are just better than what Valpo can bring to the table.  If you like a low scoring affair this one will be for you, I would think this game is going to stay under the 130 point mark but I feel more confident in a dominant effort from a Bradley squad looking to reestablish themselves in the Missouri Valley. 

Play of the day: Bradley Braves -5.5

NCAAB Play of the Day: Toledo at Miami-OH

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The top team in the MAC the Toledo Rockets are in action on Tuesday night against a surprise competitor in the MAC East the Miami-OH Redhawks.  

The Toledo Rockets are 8-1 in the conference averaging 79 ppg in 2021.  The Rockets are putting the ball in the hope consistently and quickly.  Their 79 ppg rank them 25th in the nation and have an effective FG% of 53.5%. They have multiple scorers that make life tough for opposing defenses. Their leading scorer is Marron Jackson who is averaging 17 ppg and is coming off of a 31 point game against Akron.  

Toledo will have to deal with the red hot Miami-OH Redhawks who have won three straight games and put up 85, 96 and 81 over that span.  Much like their counterparts the Redhawks have been lighting it up from three.  They are second in the MAC in 3-pt % at 38% (31st in the nation).  The Redhawks are led by guard Dae Dae Grant, averaging 13.4 per game and coming off of a career high 27 points in their latest victory over Eastern Michigan.  

These two teams are both on fire offensively.  Toledo has especially been an over machine on the road with a 6-1 record to the over away from home.  Miami-OH has been 4-2 to the over at home on the season and have hit the over in 3 straight games.  While neither team is highly touted for their pace they are both offensive efficient and shoot the three at a high level.  This game should be set around 150, it currently sits at 146 which gives some great value for Tuesday’ action.  I am rolling with the over in a game that should stay competitive.  

Play of the day: Over 146 

CBB pick ATS Jan. 21

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Florida Gators at LSU Tigers -2.5

Florida’s had a disappointing start 2019-2020 campaign.  Their loss to Missouri on January 11th was not only bad, it was downright embarrassing.  Florida has bounced back with two straight victories and covers versus Ole Miss and Auburn.  The Florida defense has been outstanding all season and they were able to shut down Auburn the entire game holding the undefeated Auburn Tigers to just 47 points.  

LSU is currently on a six game win streak, currently being undefeated in the SEC.  The Tigers will face their stiffest competition within the league. 

Florida’s offense has not been great most of the season but they have seemed to find it in SEC play averaging 80 points per game in their five games.  Florida will be able to cause problems for the LSU offense with Kerry Blackshear and 6-10 freshman Omar Payne both controlling the paint. Florida has found their mojo as they have begun to play well as all the new pieces are beginning to fit together.  Mike White has found the right mix that works. The Gators were a top ten team to begin the season and they will begin their climb back up the NCAA rankings.  

Pick: FloridaGators +2.5 

Texas Tech Red Raiders at TCU Horned Frogs +3

Texas Tech has the best player on the court in guard Jahim’us Ramsey.  Ramsey will have trouble tonight versus Jamie Dixon’s TCU defense. Known for their tight man to man coverage should be a problem for Ramsey but the Red Raiders have more to offer on the offensive end than just their freshman guard.  Kyler Edwards, Davide Moretti and Chris Clarke are all offensive options that can be a problem for the Horned Frogs. 

The Red Raiders have been streaky all season but have wins over Louisville, Iowa State and Kansas State were all wins that show the potential they have to take over the Big12.  Texas Tech will have the advantage on the offensive end, the key will be to keep TCU off of the boards. TCU is just 4-7 ATS the spread at home in 2019-2020, Texas Tech is also 5-0-1 in their last six versus the Horned Frogs.

Texas Tech is in need of another signature win and their ability to utilize multiple players on the offensive end should be enough to cover.

Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3

College Football Championship Weekend Picks ATS

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Pac 12 – Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes -6.5

Does anyone remember when Utah was beat by USC?  That was all the way back on September 20th. The Utes have become a top ten team both offensively and defensively.  Utah QB Tyler Huntley has developed into a huge threat averaging 11.1 yards per attempt which has ranks him 3rd nationally. 

Oregon has to find a way to make stops as their defense vanished against better talent giving up big points to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State.  Oregon will have problems dealing with Huntley and Utah runningback Zack Moss.  

Justin Herbert will be running for his life against the Utah pass rush most notably Bradlee Anae. The Ducks have a verteran QB and a coach that has played these big games before.  I like Utah to win and Oregon to cover on a garbage time TD.

Pick: Utah wins, Oregon covers +6.5

Big 12 – Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners -9

To have a chance at the College Football Playoff both of these teams would need some help.  The Sooners have the best chance based on their placement at the moment. The Sooners have escaped multiple games over the last month and they have to come out and have a dominant performance on Saturday.  

Baylor came out and took care of business the last two weeks dominating Kansas and beating in state rival Texas. The Bears big play ability is scary for the leaky Oklahoma defense. Baylor is top twenty in the nation in yards per play averaging 6.56. Baylor will put up points, it’s whether or not they can force turnovers.  If Baylor is able to force mistakes from the Sooners they have a chance.

Oklahoma will have the services of CeeDee Lamb in the game, something they didn’t have in their prior matchup. That makes a dangerous offense even more explosive.  The Bear’s have only given up a shocking seven touchdowns this season. Those numbers will increase by a lot on Saturday. 

AAC – Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Memphis Tigers -10

I feel like I have seen this before.  Oh it was last week. Memphis was able to topple the Bearcats by ten in their first matchup.  Memphis was able to win but it was Cincinnati was able to cover the 14 point spread. 

The Bearcats may have a wrinkle in their scheme come Saturday as quarterback Demond Ridder may be able to suit up.  While he doesn’t have the arm strength of last Saturday’s starter freshman Ben Bryant, Ridder does bring a much more athleticism.  I look for Cincinnati to utilize both QB’s if available. That means Memphis is not going to see the same game plan they saw the week before. 

If Ridder plays I like the chances for Cincinnati, their defense has what it takes to win this game.

Pick: Cincinnati Upsets Memphis

SEC – Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers -7

THIS IS YOUR MAIN EVENT OF THE EVENING!!! It’s hard for me not to imagine someone saying that as these two teams take the field Saturday.  The entire landscape of the College Football Playoff could be changed by the outcome of this game.   

Joe Burrow has burst onto the scene throwing himself right in the middle of Heisman talk as well as a bright NFL future.  LSU has scored 36 points in all but one game this year. I can list off the Burrow’s statistics but they are pretty easy for anyone to find.  He will outplay the steady Jake Fromm on Saturday, with the help of a strong running game and the red hot Clyde Edwards-Helaire.  

Georgia will be the toughest test defensively for LSU.  The Bulldogs are just behind Clemson with 10.4 points per game this season.  As good as they are they will not be able to contain LSU for a full 60 minutes.  LSU and Georgia have played four similar foes this season with LSU putting up 183 points compared to Georgia’s 94.  This game could be interesting but I see LSU with too much firepower to handle. 

Pick: LSU wins, Georgia Covers

ACC – Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers -28.5

Is Virginia good? Not really.  Beating their rival Virginia Tech got them the chance to play spoiler for Clemson Tigers.  That means they get a chance to play tune up for the only ACC team worth anything this season.  Looking past just the stats Virginia has really only been great at times this season at home and with this being on a neutral site any advantage for Virginia is gone. 

Clemson is better on both sides of the ball. They win and cover with ease.

Pick: Clemson -28.5

Big 10 – Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers +17

There is only one way I see Wisconsin actually winning this game…..sorry  really thought I had something. Wisconsin hasn’t beat Ohio State since 2010. Wisconsin is one dimensional, they will need to use the run game to control the pace and keep the #1 ranked offense in the country off the field.   Ohio State will have all the motivation in the world to pour it on and insure themselves a shot at the #1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.  

I would love to see Wisconsin make this a game, but they had their chance week nine when the weather fit their game plan.  Wisconsin has a puncher’s chance at best.  

Pick: Ohio State -17

NCAAB Picks ATS for Thanksgiving Season Record 25-13-1

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NC State Wolfpack vs. Memphis Tigers

A matchup between two teams that are hanging out next to each other on the Kenpom ratings with the Wolfpack at 41 followed directly by the Tigers at 42.  

Memphis has won three straight since losing prized big man James Wiseman, they have done it by working the ball inside. Precious Achiuwa and DJ Jefferies carried the load against Ole Miss putting in 25 each.  Achiuwa and Jefferies will have a premier matchup as the Wolfpack have had their issues guarding the interior, allowing lesser competition to dominate them. 

NC State is lead by a great player in guard Markell Johnson.  Johnson is going to have to deal with some serious pressure from the Memphis defense which will force turnover which will lead to easy points that the Wolfpack won’t be able to make up for. 

Pick: Memphis Tigers ML

Davidson Wildcats vs Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquettes lone loss on the season came at the hands of Wisconsin who was able to control the pace of the game.  Davidson this season has not been able to hold down the pace of anyone, ranking near the bottom of division one in defensive efficiency.  Davidson just gave up 81 and 92 on back to back games against Wake Forest and Nevada, two teams that don’t bring the potential firepower that Marquette will.  

This game will come down to the easy factor of controlling the glass.  Marquette has a clear advantage lead be Theo John on the inside. This one could be close but the Golden Eagles have clear advantages. 

Pick: Marquette -3

CBB Picks ATS 2.23.19

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Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers

Tennessee was primed to make a statement last week in Lexington. They had control of the SEC and could bury the “mighty” Kentucky Wildcats.  Instead they saw an end to their 20-game winning streak and found themselves just one game up the aforementioned Wildcats and their opponents on Saturday the LSU Tigers.

This is a matchup of offensive teams both ranking in the top ten in scoring in all of college basketball.  The difference on Saturday will be the ability of either team to establish themselves on the defensive end.  In LSU’s loss to Florida on Wednesday night the Tigers were unable to adjust to a Florida that tried to slow down the pace. If Tennessee is able to establish a slower pace and dominate the ball control LSU will not be able to adjust.

We have seen the Volunteers win scrappy games when they have to.   I like Jordan Bone holding Tremont Waters in check and the Volunteers to prevail on the road.  I’m not going to worry about last week or the Rick Barnes curse.  Give me the Volunteers in a huge SEC game.

Pick: Tennessee -1

Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

Every week I look at Maryland and see a potential second weekend team.  It could be my love for the traditional big that you really only see in college basketball.  Bruno Fernando is a throwback to the basketball I watched as a kid.  Throw it to the big man and impose your will.  The sophomore center enjoyed his matchup in Columbus putting up 13 point and 15 rebounds.  He will be on the attack early against Ohio State’s Kaleb Wesson whom was no match in the first meeting.  If Wesson gets into foul trouble the deficiencies of Ohio State’s depth will show.

Neither team will bring a potent offensive attack, but if Maryland is able to avoid a sluggish start that they are known for they should be able to coast to an easy victory at home.  They also have to find a way to cut down on their turnovers.  If they play smart and feed Fernando early it will open up looks for the slick shooting freshman guard Aaron Wiggins whom has hit 9 of 18 from behind the arc over the teams last 3 games. 

Maryland is 3-0 ATS in their last three home games.  Give me Maryland to cover. Take care of the ball!

Pick: Maryland -6.5

Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange

We all know Duke without Zion Williamson is going to cause some problems.  What is being ignored is that a healthy Tre Jones is back in the lineup for the Blue Devils.  In the first matchup his injury forced the Blue Devils to run the point with RJ Barrett and company.  With Jones as the helm Barrett will be free to work inside the Syracuse zone.  His ability to create at the top of the key will be a huge factor.  I assume Coach K will utilize one of his big’s in Zion’s spot, while that may be the game plan to start don’t be surprised to see a lot of sharp shooting sophomore Alex O’Connell. 

Syracuse shot lights out in the first matchup, Frank Howard will have the defense of Tre Jones hounding him all night which will lead to more turnovers not allowing the Orange to set their press.  Duke has the superior athletes even without Zion.  If utilized correctly they should cover the spread.

Pick: Duke -4.5

Other games I like:

Illinois/Penn State Under 145.5

MO State/ Indiana State Under 131.5

Purdue -5

Marquette -3

Texas +3.5

Kansas State -10.5

SLU +6.5