Big 12 Championship

Big 12 Championship- This is going to be a grind

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears +5.5 Total: 46.5

The Big 12 Championship game looks kind of odd without Oklahoma participating, nevertheless there will be a team from the state that is looking to find itself in the college football playoff.  The Cowboys are one win away from forcing themselves into the conversation, the Baylor Bears will look to be dream killers on Saturday in what is sure to be a hard hitting affair. 

This will be the second time these two teams have met, the first was won by Oklahoma State 24-14.  The Cowboys were able to overcome three interceptions thrown by QB Spencer Sanders. Oklahoma State dominated on the ground, led by Jaylen Warren’s 125 yards and two touchdowns.  Sanders was able to add 76 yards on the ground but this time around he will have to limit the turnovers and utilize their strong run game.  

The Baylor Bears will have a similar offensive game plan, they are a run first team that has averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground.  In their first meeting the Bears fell behind early 14-0 and were outgained in the first half 240 – 90. The Oklahoma State defense is good all around but they thrive against the run, allowing just 2.8 yard per rush. Baylor will likely be without QB Gerry Bohanon, who is dealing with a hamstring injury, if he does play he will have to graduate from game manager to big play threat to challenge the Cowboy defense.  If Bohanon can’t go, the Bears will have to lean on Redshirt Freshman Blake Shapen.

The Big 12 has a rare matchup of defensive minded teams in their championship game. This one will be old school.  Both teams will battle in the trenches which will slow the pace down a lot.  Oklahoma State has a lot more to play for, if Sanders can avoid the turnovers that have plagued him in big games this season this should be a win and an easy cover. I like the Cowboys to win by a touchdown.  

Ok State being the choice to win the game also means I think they will dictate the pace.  That means running and controlling the clock. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium.  While I am sure based on location the fan bases will be split, I look at this like an away game for both teams.  These two are a combined 8-2 to the under on the road and I expect that trend to continue.

Pick: Under 46.5, lean hard OK State -5.5

NCAAF Picks, Big 12 and Conference USA plus Mizzou

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs 

Mizzou reached their peak getting ranked in the top 25 last week.  They didn’t do anything with their momentum getting obliterated in the second half against the far superior Georgia Bulldogs.  Missouri has still had a solid year under first year Head Coach Eli Drinkwitz.  The Tigers are 5-4 and will be looking to get themselves to a bowl game.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs on the other hand have had a terrible season in their first season with Head Coach Mike Leach, going 2-7.  Their season opening upset over defending national champion LSU is just a blip in the season. 

The Tigers have leaned on RB Larry Roundtree, running for 851 yards and 12 touchdowns.  The Tigers have steady QB play since switching full time to Connor Blazek.  The Tigers have a lot to play for going into this game.  Their defense has given up 30 ppg on the season but Miss St has had some problems finishing drives.  They will need every point they can get in this one as the defense will be without senior defensive lineman Marquiss Spencer.  

Mike Leach has publicly come out about his frustrations for this season and his team has seen a lot of players call it quits due to covid.  Mizzou has a lot to play for in this one and will be inspired to put on a good performance.  They lean on Roundtree and out score the Bulldogs.  The Tigers roll and it won’t be close. 

Pick: Missouri -1

UAB Blazers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

UAB will enter its third straight Conference USA Championship game against the team that had been dominating the conference for most of the season.  Marshall’s shocking 20-0 loss to RIce two weeks ago was their lone setback of the season. The Thundering Herd are 5-3 against the spread this season led primarily by their defense.  Marshall has given up just 10 points per game this season.  An outstanding number no matter what conference you are in.   As an overall unit they are ranked 35th in the nation.  

Marshall’s freshman QB Grant Wells has had a few weeks to think about his worst performance of the season against RIce.  If you take the Rice game out, Wells has been solid for the Marshall offense throwing for 16 TD and 4 interceptions.   The Thundering Herd will go back to the basics on offense to allow the young QB to just manage the game and let the defense do its thing.  

UAB has been killed by turnovers this season.  The Blazers have 15 turnovers this season including multiple turnovers in 4 straight games before ending the streak last week against Rice.  UAB has to hold onto the ball to have a chance in this game.  Marshall has a better offense and defense.  This will be a low scoring defensive showcase that Marshall will dominate.  

Pick: Marshall -5

Oklahoma Sooners vs.  Iowa State Cyclones

Oklahoma has turned its season around after a disastrous start that included a loss to Iowa State .  Freshman QB Spencer Rattler has progressed through his early struggles to put together a nice season with 2,512 yards and 24 TD.  It has been the Sooner defense that has stepped up the most, especially against the run.  Oklahoma has allowed just 93 yards per game on the ground, ranking them 7th in the nation.  

Iowa State has had a great season.  RB Bryce Hall was a one man show in his last meeting with Oklahoma running for 139 yards and 2 TD in their first meeting.  Hall did that to most opposing defenses this year running for 1,375 yards and 17 TD.  The Cyclones are one of the slower offensive units in college football.  They will look to utilize Hall to move the ball while eating up the clock.  Their commitment to the run has allowed QB Brock Purdy to find success downfield.  If Iowa State wants to win this game they have to be able to win the battle on the ground.  

Oklahoma has had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Their last game on December 5th against Baylor.  Lincoln Riley should have his freshman QB prepared for this but I think this is going to come down to the stable play of Brock Purdy.  Purdy has been great down the stretch throwing no interceptions in their last three games and connecting on 80% of his passes.  The Iowa State offensive line will keep Purdy upright and they will control the clock with their superior run game.  

Pick: Iowa State +5.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 18-13

Championship Week Picks

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Pac 12: Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies -5

The Pac 12 may not be heading to the College Football Playoff but a champion must still be crowned and a participant in the Rose Bowl.

Washington hopes to build off the big victory over rival Washington State in their regular season finale. Washington will have the advantage at QB with Jake Browning, who threw for 2,692 yards and 16 touchdowns during the season.  He will lead an offense that will look to jump out early on Utah.

The Huskies defense was able to hold a powerful Washington State offense to 15 points. The Utes don’t possess the offense to compete with Washington.

PicksWashington -5.5

Big 12: Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -7.5

Let me set the scene.  Two hated rivals.  One looking to not only avenge their only loss but also give themselves a shot at the college football playoff.  The other with the chance to beat their rival twice and keep them out of the college football playoff. This game has ESPN 30 for 30 written all over it.

Kyler Murray has been as good as advertised all season.  He will keep that going against a stout Texas defense.  All season Murray has not been the problem.  The Oklahoma defense is going to the be issue in this game.  Texas QB Sam Ehlinger was impressive in their first matchup throwing for 314 yards and two touchdowns.  Texas is a tough matchup for the Sooners,  they are 6-0 ATS versus Oklahoma in their last six.  Oklahoma wins but its close.

PicksTexas +7.5

AAC: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights -3.5

Mackenzie Milton’s injury season ending injury may be to much to overcome for the “National Champs”.  Memphis enters this game with thoughts of last years epic showdown in the AAC Championship game, losing by a touchdown in double overtime.  The Tigers are out for blood in this one, looking to end the UCF 24-game win streak and any hope for the Knights to make it into the College Football Playoff. 

Memphis will run the ball straight down the throats of the UCF defense, managing the clock and dominating the time of possession. Look for Memphis to stack the box and make unproven true freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. make throws down field.  Even if Mack Jr. does play well it will still be a lot to overcome.  I like Memphis to cover the +5.5 and I may even look to the moneyline.

PicksMemphis +3.5

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have seen Tua in their nightmares for about a year now.  They will have a chance to face their fears on Saturday as they go into the SEC Championship.  

The betting public is going to look at Georgia’s loss to LSU and compare it to the domination Alabama showed against LSU.  I am looking at these two teams differently.  I see a Georgia team fighting for their life with a QB Jake Fromm that has no fear of Alabama. Georgia surrenders the 10th-fewest points per game at 17.2 and the 14th-fewest passing yards per game at 175.1. 

Alabama is a juggernaut of offense but their defense has shown holes this season. Georgia will come out and take an early lead and ride it until the 4th quarter where Tua makes the big plays necessary to overcome them.  This game is going to be a good one and a lot closer then the point spread is going to be. 

PicksGeorgia -13.5

ACC: Clemson Tigers -26.5 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

I’m not wasting a lot of time on this one.  Pittsburgh is overmatched this one should be a beatdown of epic proportion.  Do I hope I am wrong? Yes.  But unlikely, Clemson rolls into the College Football Playoff. 

PicksClemson Tigers -26.5

Big 10: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

Ohio State opened some eyes last week in their beatdown of rival Michigan last week. The Buckeyes defense finally showed up in the win against Michigan, but they still have to prove that they can consistently play at a high level. As good as the defense looked it has been Dwayne Haskins that has been playing at a NFL level.  He was second only to Gardner Minshew in passing yards this season, had five more touchdown passes than runner-up Will Grier, and torched the FBS’ top defense from Michigan for 396 passing yards, six passing TDs and 62 points in The Game.

Northwestern enters this matchup as over achievers in a matchup that does fit their strengths.  The Wildcats are 79th ranked passing defense in the country giving up 238 yards per game on average.  

The Buckeyes not only need to win this game but they have to show that they are a dominant force.  Urban Meyer won’t take his foot off the gas in this one. 

PicksOhio State -13.5