Atlanta Braves

Braves vs Dodgers; NLCS Preview and Prediction

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The matchup of the two best teams in the national league will culminate in an epic showdown in the NLCS.  Both teams have gone undefeated throughout the first two rounds, they both feature great offenses and marquee names.  These teams have a history of winning, but not a recent history of winning the big one.  What will be the difference?  Let’s break it down. 

Can Braves pitching face the challenge?

Atlanta took some blows to their pitching staff throughout the season.  Losing offseason signees Felix Hernandez and Cole Hamels, one to injury and one to Covid worry set the Braves back right away.  The rapid decline of Mike Foltynewicz took another name off the table almost immediately into 2020.  The final straw in the deterioration of the staff was losing ace Mike Soroka to an achilles injury. 

Max Fried stepped up during the regular season. Despite getting knocked around in the NLDS he is still the clear #1 for the Braves.  Fried has limited hard contact all season holding opposing lineups to just a 23% rate.  The Dodgers are not a heavy strikeout team so limiting the contact will be important.  

Rookie Ian Anderson has been overwhelming to start his career.  He has held opposing hitters power in check so far giving up just a .7% homerun rate.  That ranks #1 in the league for any pitcher that has faced at least 156 hitters.  Anderson’s changeup has kept hitters off balance, as long as he continues to hit the strike zone and avoid free passes he matches up well with the Dodgers front line starters.  

The depth of the Braves bullpen has bailed them out from their injuries. Tyler Matzek, Will Smith, Darren O’Day and Mark Melancon all have been great with sub 3.00 ERA’s in at least 18 appearances each.  They have to ride the bullpen arms to overcome their young rotation that will have problems with the Dodgers patience at the plate. 

The Dodgers offense is matchup proof.

Los Angeles has the best offense in the league in every advanced statistic.  They have a wRC+ of 122, along with the Mets as the best in the league.  What makes the Dodgers extremely dangerous is their ability to score without utilizing the homerun.  They showed in the Padres series they have multiple ways of manufacturing runs.  There is not one person on the team that beats you, it could be anyone. 

The Braves feature an extremely young pitching staff that will have to throw strikes. The Braves sit at the bottom five in steals allowed per game.  The Dodgers will have a chance to make things happen when they get on base. 

The Braves are in the bottom five in stolen bases against during the season. The Dodgers have multiple players that can take advantage of the Braves issues with runners on.  Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger are just a few that can swip a bag at any moment.  LA will make it tough for Atlanta as they also feature a low strikeout rate.  The power is real, accompanied by the ability to use their contact ability speed to cause trouble.  

Who will win?

Both teams feature the best offenses in the National League.  The Braves however will feature a rotation that includes Kyle Wright….and nothing else.  The Dodgers feature a perfect matchup with the Braves bats Julio Urias and Dustin May both feature great movement on their pitches that will be a problem for Atlanta bats.  The depth of the Dodgers pitching will ultimately outmatch the Braves.  

Dodgers in 5

Who should replace Markakis in Atlanta?

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The Braves have been hit pretty hard by COVID-19.  First it was offseason addition Felix Hernandez opting out and now veteran outfielder Nick Markakis has decided to do the same.  Atlanta plans to not only contend in the NL East but they actually see themselves as real candidates to win the NL pennant.  They have to find a replacement for Markakis.  The in-house options are solid but who should be the man to take over right field?

Austin Riley-

Riley’s power is legit.  He is going to have to find consistency on the major league level.  Bursting onto the scene in 2019, it looked like the Braves had a future star at 3rd base or outfielder ready to take over for the departing Josh Donaldson. Opposing pitchers were having a problem leaving the ball over the middle of the plate to the power hitting prospect.  

Eventually Riley ran into some trouble as pitchers began to figure him out.  During his last 123 plate appearances of the season the slash line is not positive, .150/.202/.293. Riley became susceptible to the slider which forced him to try and change his swing to adjust.  His hand trigger became slower which is allowing pitchers to take advantage with high hard fastballs.  

Austin Riley is still young and his problems can be fixed.  If Riley is able to adjust he can fit in nicely in right field and Johan Camargo can take over full time at the hot corner. 

Ender Inciarte-

Inciarte’s injuries saw him lose his spot in the starting lineup. Even before the injuries the writing was on the wall for Ender losing his job.  The 2017 All-Star saw a decline in his OBP in 2018, falling to just .325. 

Ender will have his chance to reclaim his spot in the starting lineup due to his defense. He is a 3-time gold glove award winner will bring his glove but the offense has to show in the lead up to the season.  If Inciarte is able to reclaim his form from 2017 he will be a great place holder for some developing stars that will come on this list.  

Adam Duvall-

Maybe the most established major league player on this list is Adam Duvall.  The long time Red has had spurts of brilliance in 2016 and 2017, hitting 30+ homers over those two seasons.  The power Duvall brings comes at a cost as his career OBP is a pedestrian .292.  In 41 games last year he showed the Braves what he can bring to the table slugging .567.  

The Braves are a team built around a core of power bats already, Duvall seems to fit better in the power off the bench role.  While he could win the job, it may be hard to keep the job. 

Cristian Pache- 

The top outfield prospect in Atlanta will most likely have a legit shot at making the opening day roster.  A potential five tool prospect was a late bloomer in terms of power but saw his slugging percentage rise to .462 in 2019 reaching as high as triple-A.  

Pache looks the part standing at 6’2” and runs like a gazelle.  He has not developed into a legit base stealer but his first to third speed is exceptional.  His speed transitioned well into the defensive.  Pache has center field skills that will work in the right.  With Pache and Ronald Acuna a gap shot in right center field may disappear.  The Braves would be gambling on exposing Pache before necessary but he should have an impact on this season before it’s over.  

Drew Waters-

Waters had a great 2019 season.  Jumping up to compete with Cristian Pache as the #1 outfield prospect in the Braves system, Waters turned some heads last season.  The Georgia native led all Braves minor leaguers in hits, doubles and triples.  If Waters can find a way to cut down the strikeouts, his hard contact rate is hard to ignore.

Waters had a solid .360 OBP split between triple-A and double-A.  He could be a future top of the lineup standout for the Braves but he will have to show an ability to knock down the strikeouts leading up to the first games or he will be relegated to a bench role or not making the team at all. 

Who should it be?

Atlanta will allow everyone to have a chance to win the position. In my opinion if Cristian Pache shows an ability to hit he should be the man to be given the chance.  Adam Duvall’s skills seem perfect for the power bat off the bench and Ender Inciarte has had problems staying healthy.  

While I like Pache, it will most likely be Inciarte getting the first chance.

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Teams that should thrive in a 60 game schedule.

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American League Central: Minnesota Twins

The Twins were already going to be favored in the AL Central, a shortened season fits perfectly for the power heavy Twins.  An already powerful offense adding free agent prize Josh Donaldson in the offseason to put him in the middle of the lineup along with the ageless Nelson Cruz.  Minnesota’s lineup depth is arguably as good as any team in baseball. Less games means more rest for 2019 breakouts Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco.  Polanco, a 2019 all-star, saw some regression in the second half but in a shortened season his .880 first half OPS last year shows the type of potential he can bring to the table in 2020. 

The Twins biggest question leading into the 2020 campaign was going to be their pitching staff behind ace Jose Berrios. They didn’t address it as drastically as the fanbase would like adding Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers being the biggest marquee name.  The Twins still have a serviceable rotation backed up by a very solid bullpen.  The aforementioned Berrios should excel in a condensed season. His second half numbers seemed to show the wear and tear of a long season.  

Minnesota has the bats and the bullpen to be dominant out of the gate.  While the White Sox have improved and the Indians still have a great core, Minnesota is built for immediate impact. 

American League East: Toronto Blue Jays

Youth and power.  The Toronto Blue Jays have a litany of both and that is as dangerous as it can come in a shortened season.  A young team getting off to a good start doesn’t always carry the full length of 162 games.  With just a sixty game season by the time Toronto realizes that they aren’t supposed to win we could be in the playoffs.  

Toronto overhauled their rotation in the offseason adding Chase Anderson, Tanner Roark and Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Ryu is the most notable addition from the LA Dodgers immediately jumps to the top of the rotation for Toronto and brings some much needed playoff experience.  Top prospects Nate Pearson, Simeon Woods Richardson and Anthony Kay could factor into the season if there is a playoff push down the stretch. 

The most exciting part of the Blue Jays will be their exceptional power throughout the lineup.  Vlad Guerreo Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio are ready to make an impact right now. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has legit 30 homer power and the rest of the lineup has legit 25-30 homer power.  This team can erase a deficit very quickly, all it will take is a good start to make them a problem for the American League. 

American League West: Texas Rangers

I loved the Rangers leading into the 2020 season as a dark horse playoff contender.  The additions of Corey Kluber and Robinson Chirinos added playoff experience to a talented team that seemed to be missing something.  They sured up the rest of their rotation by adding two other veteran starters with high upside in Jordan Lyles and Kyle Gibson. Texas may arguably have one of the deepest rotations in the American League one through five.  Their top three starters Kluber, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor can match up with most rotations.  Texas still has some questions in the back end of the pen but Jose Leclerc seemed to settle into the closer role and minor league signee Cody Allen could emerge as a reliable late inning arm down the stretch. 

The Rangers have studs on the offensive side of the ball and the delay in the season allowed Willie Calhoun to heal from getting hit in the face by a fastball in spring training.  Texas has the offensive firepower to hang with anyone.  If they can cut down the strikeouts they can be a serious threat in a shortened season.  The Astros are the clear favorite in the NL West but they will not be able to relax as the rebuild in Texas is nearly finished.

National League Central: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers could not have asked for a better situation heading into 2020.  A shorter season seems to work right into the hands of Manager Craig Counsel.  Counsel has morphed into the ultimate game manager during his young career.  The Brewers rotation is not built to handle big inning seasons so the bullpen would again have had to eat a bulk amount of innings.  The shortening of the regular season allows the power arms in the pen to conserve some of their best stuff for the stretch run heading into October.

The Brewers will have a fully healthy Christain Yelich and will have a new cast of power bats lining up behind him.  Avisail Garcia should thrive in Miller Park and a second season of super prospect Keston Hiura should make for a lineup that will provide plenty of pop.  

Milwaukee would have run into problems with the rotation if they had to go a full 162 but this set up makes them a serious threat to take the NL Central.

National League East: Atlanta Braves

Heading into the 2019 postseason it seemed like the Braves were the clear favorite to match up with the Dodgers in the NLCS.  Amazingly neither of those teams were able to overcome their first round opponents but a shortened 2020 season could be just what the club needs to get over the hump of the previous year.  

Atlanta lost Josh Donaldson in the offseason but found a more than adequate replacement in Marcel Ozuna.  Ozuna’s stint with the St. Louis Cardinals didn’t pan out the way the former all-star had hoped but he moved from a pitcher friendly park to a much more hitter friendly Suntrust Field.  Ozuna will also have a full season of Austin Riley at 3rd base.  He will be given the reins to handle the hot corner and hopefully find the skills that showed in his first few weeks in the bigs.  

The Braves swapped out Dallas Keuchel for Cole Hamels in the rotation.  Hamels still has a lot in the tank and should be a huge asset for the Braves behind Mike Soroka and the re-emerging Mike Foltynewicz.  Atlanta doesn’t have the same top of the rotation as the Mets or Nationals but both have better bullpens and lineups which should thrive in this situation. 

National League West: Arizona Diamondbacks

The NL West is tricky.  The obvious favorite and most likely winners will be the LA Dodgers.  Nearly every other team in the division could benefit from a shorter season and expanded playoffs.  My favorite team for this situation though is the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The D-Backs made headlines picking up veteran ace Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is still just 30 years old and brings an imposing figure to the desert.  A leader in his many years in San Fran the Diamondbacks sport a still very young core that needed an on field presence like Bumgarner.  Behind Bumgarner, talented Robbie Ray will have less pressure to be the ace and allow him to just show off his impressive skill set.  

The D-Backs had a few stellar offseason additions in the outfield adding Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun.  Arizona’s dynamic of speed and power throughout the lineup will bring fits for opposing pitching staffs.  Ketel Marte has more protection in front of him and behind.  A ful commitment to Christain Walker at first base and Carson Kelly behind the plate is going to pay dividends offensively.  

Arizona’s bullpen is led by Archie Bradley and has plenty of solid arms to hold up over the shortened time frame.  Arizona is going to be fun to watch and should see themselves in the thick of the playoff race.

Bounce Back Players

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Mike Foltynewciz, Pitcher, Atlanta Braves

Folty had a terrible start to his 2019 season. His first half of the season was a complete dumpster fire that was impossible to put out.  Foltynewciz was coming off of an All-Star appearance in 2018 where he had a 4.0 WAR. He was supposed to be the ace of a potential playoff team but that’s not how it went for him.  

Foltynewicz had a real problem with the long ball.  His HR/FB rate increased by 7% in 2019, giving up 16 homers in the first half of the season. He was sent to the minors in order to figure out what was causing the regression.  The send down was exactly what was needed for the potential ace. The second half of the season showed the pitcher that the Braves thought they would have in 2019. The second half of the season.

IPERATBFH2B3BRERHRBBIBBHBPSOAVGOBPSLGwOBA
1st Half59.16.372606494474216202250.275.336.554
2nd Half57.22.652314510018177170055.211.270.357.269

The Braves added a few veteran starters in Felix Hernandez and Cole Hamels.  The two veterans will help stabilize the rotation and give leadership to a young rotation.  Foltynewciz will now have two players to turn to if things begin to go wrong. Look for a bounce back season from the fireballer. 

Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians

The bar was set very high for Jose Ramirez.  Two straight seasons finishing third in the MVP voting. Ramirez was an offensive beast in 2017 and 2018 finishing both seasons with a WRC+ of 146. Ramirez was putting himself in elite categories of offensive players in all of baseball. Then a slump of epic proportion took place actually beginning for him in late August of 2018 continuing into June 0f 2019.

Ramirez was having problems hitting fastballs. 

Before August 18, 2018- BA .336

After August 18, 2018- BA. 190

Ramirez began facing more shifts.

Before August 18, 2020- Shift percentage 18%

After August 18, 2020- Shift percentage 60%

Ramirez BABIP plummeted.

Before August 18, 2018- .301

After August 18 208- .209

The slump to start the 2019 season put Ramirez in a hole that was tough to pull out of.  He began to make adjustments that turned his season around. His slash line in the second half showed the player that was a preseason MVP candidate .327/.365/.729.  The return of power for Ramirez was a huge factor in the turn around of his season. His .412 ISO and a .302 BABIP propelled him back to offensive relevancy. Heading into the 2020 season Ramirez has a chance to reestablish himself as a premier hitter in the league.  

Justin Upton, OF, Los Angeles Angels

A knee injury plagued Upton’s 2019 season, only playing in only 63 games.  Upton will have a chance to bounce back in 2020 if fully healthy. The Angels have loaded up talent around Upton with the addition of Anthony Rendon.  Upton will be battin being Mike Trout and Rendon giving him ample opportunity to drive in runs, something that he has done throughout his career. When fully healthy Upton has the ability to be a premium level producer.  His 2018 campaign was below his usual level of production but he still produced a wRC+ of 123 and hit thirty homers.  

A fully healthy Justin Upton will be a force in the middle of a potentially explosive offense in Los Angeles. 

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Atlanta Braves

Marcell was supposed to have a huge payday this offseason.  Unfortunately he was a by product of the new analytical world.  Ozuna’s ISO (.231) and OPS (.800) are both above league average but doesn’t warrant the nine digit contract he was looking for. The Braves took a chance on Ozuna signing him to a one-year “prove it” deal that has become popular among major league teams.  Ozuna’s 2019 team was not horrible but he has elite skills that will thrive in the steamy summers in Atlanta.  

Ozuna had a portion of bad luck in 2019 with a BABIP of just .257, the lowest of his career.  Despite the low batting average he actually had the best hard hit percentage of his career at 48.4%.  Ozuna has real power that will thrive in a more hitter friendly park in Atlanta. With the MLB season being delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic Ozuna will have a chance to heal up heading into the season and should be able to show the potential we all saw when he was traded to St. Louis in 2017. 

Honorable Mention: 

Cory Knebel, Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers

Yu Darvish, Pitcher, Chicago Cubs

Ian Happ, Utility, Chicago Cubs

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

Alex Wood, Pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Story of Marcell Ozuna and the St. Louis Cardinals

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Marcell Ozuna signe a 1-year $18 million dollar “prove it” contract with the Atlanta Braves officially ending his two-year relationship with the St. Louis Cardinals.  The St. Louis Cardinals were in need of an impact bat in the middle of their order. Long gone were the days of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday anchoring the middle of the order striking fear into the opposing pitching staff.  Ozuna had two years left on his contract when he was picked up in 2017. Those two years were supposed to be a showcase of his excellency, forcing the Cardinals to make him a huge offer cementing him as the new face of baseball in the gateway to the west. Ozuna was going to cash in and both the player and the team will live happily ever after.  That would have been a great story unfortunately professional sports is not a fairy tale.

The Cardinals picked up a 27-year old, two-time all-star coming off of a breakout season where he posted a .312/.376/.548 slash line to go along with 37 homers, 128 RBI and a gold glove.  It wasn’t former teammate Christian Yelich that was the future MVP, Ozuna was considered as the prized piece. The Cardinals gave three pitching prospects Daniel Castano, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara and outfielder Magneuris Sierra for Ozuna.  Alcantara was named an all-star in 2019 giving him one more than Ozuna in his time with St. Louis while Zac Gallen has become a part of the rotation for the Arizona Diamondbacks.  

When the acquisition was made the Cardinals looked like the clear winner adding the power that was going to take them out of the dreaded middle pack of the central division.  The days of Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyroko and Randal Grichuck batting cleanup were over. Finally a power bat to accommodate the on-base prowess of Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler.  The 2017 Cardinals needed this bat.

2017 Team Stats (Non-Pitcher)

ISO: 176

Slug: .439

WRC+: 107

Entering 2018 was exciting with their new power bat the Cardinals had to improve their offense…right?

2018 Team Stats (Non-Pitcher)

ISO: .169

Slug: .419

WRC+: 100

Ozuna’s first season in St. Louis was marred by a shoulder injury, limiting his production.  His slash line .243/.330/.435 was not nearly as productive as his final year with Miami. Coming into the 2019 season the team added Paul Goldschmidt to go along with Ozuna, that should have helped…right?

2019 Team Stats (Non Pitcher)

ISO: .177

Slug: .428

WRC+: 105

The Cardinal offense continued to be mediocre in 2019 even though Ozuna was electric to begin the season hitting ten homers in his first 27 games, he floundered down the stretch, hitting just .219 in the second half.  Ozuna had a chance to erase two years of sub-par production and looked to be on the right track in the NLDS, hitting two homers with a slash line of .429/.478/.857 in five games against his new team. Continuing that production could have changed the opinion of the public on Ozuna, unfortunately the NLCS wiped away any memory of dominance at the plate.  The numbers are literally not worth typing at this point.  

Two years with Marcell Ozuna did not change the offense for the St. Louis Cardinals.  Ozuna provided the fanbase with some mathom shots that showed the potential he brings to any lineup but he came into the 2018 season out of shape and injured.  His swing produced long home runs but resembled a cleanup hitter at your local slow pitch softball league. Those guys can hit the ball pretty far to, doesn’t make them major league All-Stars.  Both the Cardinals and Ozuna have found themselves in a place that they could have never imagined.   

St. Louis is currently looking at a potential outfield of Tyler O’Neil, Dexter Fowler and Harrison Bader.  Banking on a bounce back season from Bader and a breakout season from O’Neil are large questions marks for a team that is always looking to compete.  With super prospect Dylan Carlson on his way there is some hope for the future of the Cardinals outfield but if Ozuna could have been the player the Cardinals thought they traded for it you could have the building blocks of a great outfield for years to come. 

Ozuna was supposed to be that building block entering his age 29 season, this offseason was supposed to be the one that paid off in the long run of his career.  Whether it was the Cardinals or someone else this was the time that the “Big Bear” was supposed to get his contract that could allow him to find a permanent spot to hibernate for the rest of his career.  Accepting a one-year deal was the worst case outcome for him. If he is not able to pick up his production this could be a trend that follows him for years to come.  

Trades don’t always work out for most teams.  This one didn’t set the organization back, but it leaves them in a vulnerable place as we see the progression of the prospects.  Marcell Ozuna and the St. Louis Cardinals was supposed to work. Sports stories don’t always have happy endings…luckily for both their stories continue, this was just a crappy chapter.