NCAAB Play of the day: Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

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Big Ten basketball is about as unpredictable as any conference on any night.  On Monday night we get a matchup between the rising Ohio State Buckeyes and the upset minded Maryland Terrapins. 

The Terps are literally a box of chocolates, never knowing what you are going to get.  They feature wins over Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all are great individual wins in a season where they are just 10-9 overall.  Maryland has a lot of talent, they are led by Junior guard Eric Ayala who is coming off of his best game of the year putting up 23 points in their loss to Penn State Friday night. The Terps were not impressive in their their loss Penn State, they only put up 50 points in a matchup with a weaker defensive unit in the Nittany Lions.  They will have to find more points if they want keep up with one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are on a roll. The Buckeyes have established themselves as the top of the food chain in the loaded Big Ten winning 7 of 8 and sitting just behind Illinois and Michigan for the top overall record in the conference.  The Buckeyes have a dynamic connection between EJ Liddell and Duane Washington, either one has the ability to take over a game at any moment. The offense has been on a tear scoring at least 74 points per game in four straight, if they are able to reach 70 that could be well out of the range for the Terps as they live up to their namesake with one of the slowest paces in the Big Ten. 

The Buckeyes are able to run their offense through EJ Liddell in the post.  Maryland won’t have a big that can hang with him,  they will be forced to pack the defense in, allowing the Ohio State motion offense to work around the athletic Maryland wings.  Ohio State has been efficient on offense ranking top five in the country in offensive efficiency.  Maryland’s experience and athletes will keep this one tight but Ohio State is awesome from the free throw line and should lock this one down in the end.  

Play of the day: Ohio State -3.5

NCAAB Play of the day: George Mason Patriots vs Dayton Flyers

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The Dayton Flyers and George Mason Patriots will face Friday night both trying to rebound from conference losses.  The Flyers were upset on the road against Duquesne while George Mason got rolled by conference powerhouse St. Bonaventure.  These two teams will be meeting for the second time this season, the Flyers winning and covering in their first matchup. 

Dayton could not find their offensive flow in their last game shooting just 40% as a team.  They are one of the better teams offensively in the country shooting 47% on the season ranking them 40th in the country.  They are led by guards Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson, both were able to put up 42 total points in their last matchup with the Patriots. The emergence of forward Mustapha Amzil has helped deal with the losses of Chase Johnson and Rodney Chatman. The Flyers offense is efficient with 2-point and 3-point field goal percentages ranking in the top 20. 

George Mason has not been effective consistently on the offensive end .  They are led by guard Jordan Miller, averagin 15ppg on the season and was the lone bright spot in their loss to the Bonnies.  The biggest problem for George Mason has been their inability to take freebies at the free throw line.  They rank at the bottom of the nation from the free throw line.  The Patriots seem to run their offense better on the road, their record of 6-1 to the over on the road is both baffling and intriguing for the fanbase and the  betting community. 

Dayton’s offense is almost elite level ranking 28th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, they are also great from the free throw line shooting 74% from the line.  While their offense is great their defense is far from effective. George Mason shouldn’t have problems running their offense.  With the talent on the Flyers offensive end and their struggles on defense I am rolling with the over 131.  These two teams hit the over in their first matchup and the overall total dropped by 5 points.  I would like to go with the Flyers covering the -6 spread but they have had a lot of problems closing out teams in the second half.  This total is too low, so that seems like the better play. 

Play of the day: George Mason/Dayton Over 131

Rockies Rebuild

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The Rockies trading away Nolan Arenado was not surprising.  They are beginning a rebuild around one of the best young shortstops in the game in Trevor Story and to be able to afford his impending free agency, moving on from $215 million seems like a no brainer.  What was really surprising is the reported return for the 5-time All-Star.  The Rockies did not get any of the top 7 prospects in the Cardinals system.  They got one major league ready player in Austin Gomber but injuries and inconsistencies have made him a question mark at best as to what he will be in the future.  Still the Rockies did add more prospect depth to their system and freed up a lot of money, they still have a lot of work to do to raise their farm system ranking (currently 27th).  If they are committed to full rebuild they have a few players that could bring them value.  I am going to rank the best value they have excluding Trevor Story.  

5. Ian Desmond, 35, OF

Three years ago Ian Desmond wouldn’t have been worth the paper his contract was written on. Desmond sat out the 2020 season and is building off of a solid 2019.  Desmond has versatility and an affordable contract for $8 million in 2021.  He has a club option for 2022 which can be exercised if he has a productive season.  Desmond has versatility and power that teams are looking for.  He won’t bring in the top prospect for any organization but his 20 homers over the last two active seasons still gives him value.  He can get a few nice pieces at the lower level, with the current situation the Rockies are in they need a lot of depth.  

4. Kyle Freeland, LHP

Kyle Freeland looked like a pitcher that the Rockies were going to build around after a stellar 2018 season.  The former first round draft pick stumbled hard in 2019 and was up and down in 2020.  Freeland is still just 27-years-old and has arbitration for the next two years.  

Freeland has had trouble getting out right-handed hitters, giving up big power numbers to the opposite side of the plate.  A large portion of those fingers were given up at Coors Field.  Take Freeland out of Coors and he could return to his 2018 form.  If he is anything close to that he can be a great addition for a playoff team looking for a fourth starter with years of potential.  

3. Scott Oberg, RHP

Scott Oberg dealt with some serious injuries in the 2020 season, which forced him to miss the entire year.  The 30-year-old right hander began a throwing program in November and should be ready to go for 2021. Oberg’s last two active seasons he was a high level reliever in a place that is not friendly for pitchers.  Oberg had two straight seasons with elite level ERA+ with 193 (2018) and 230 (2019).  Oberg will be a commodity if healthy at the trade deadline.  If he comes back from his injury and shows the ability that he has he can be a great trade deadline piece for a team that needs bullpen help.   

2. Charlie Blackmon, OF 

Charlie Blackmon has been a part of trade rumors for multiple seasons. Blackmon has two years left on his current contract with $44 million due.  His player option for the next two seasons makes him a gamble for most teams, which will reduce the cost on the market for the 34-year-old.  

Blackmon is still an effective player at the plate.  He is matchup proof, having no problem with lefties, crushing 14 homers against them in 2019.  His numbers away from Coors Field are always a question mark, but his OPS in away games is still above league average and his ability to play multiple OF spots also makes him an asset.   

1. German Marquez, RHP

German Marquez is a 25-year-old starter with three years left on his current contract.  He has 41 wins over the last four years.  Marquez has great swing and miss stuff that will translate to any team and any park.  Over the last three seasons Marquez has featured an xFIP of 3.83 or below. His contract has two years left on it with a third year club option, any organization that makes a move for him will get him in his prime years for his second contract.  

Marquez is an asset, he has the most potential of anyone on the Rockies pitching staff.  Teams like the Twins, Yankees, Braves and Rays are all loaded in the farm system and could really use more starting pitching help.  

NCAAB Play of the Day: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Pacific Tigers

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Sometimes the obvious is boring or misleading.  You see a line that is too good to be true and think, no I should stay away.  Fight the urge to be different on Thursday night when the #1 team in the nation the Gonzaga Bulldogs go on the road to face off against the Pacific Tigers.  The Zag’s put a beating on Pacific in their first matchup winning by 46 points in their first matchup of the year. We should see something similar in their second meeting.  

The Zags have won 5 of 6 by 22 points most recently beating and covering versus Pepperdine.  The Zags have so much depth that even if this game gets out of hand early the bench is still strong enough to dominate a terrible Pacific team.  The only chance Pacific has is to slow down the pace and force Gonzaga to defend and not run their offense.  The Tigers are slow ranking 272nd the nation in tempo, the problem is they don’t take advantage of their slow pace with an effective field goal percentage of 44.3%.  They don’t score nearly enough to truly compete. 

Laying 23 points on the road in a conference game is always a scary situation but Mark Few will have his guys ready to go and they will jump out early.  Pacific has no answer for Corey Kispert, Drew Timme or Jalen Suggs.  At each position there is a matchup nightmare.  Take the first half and the game spread.  I am playing the game spread for my play of the day because Pacific can’t score and the Zags can score at an insane rate.  

Play of the day: Gonzaga Bulldogs -23.5 

NCAAB Play of the Day: Seton Hall Pirates at Providence Friars

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A matchup between two of the most confusing teams in college basketball will take place on Wednesday night with the Seton Hall Pirates face off against the Providence Friars.  This Big East showdown could be a potential eliminator for a shot at a birth in the NCAA tournament.  

Seton Hall is coming off of one of the toughest stretches of any team in the country.  Playing Villanova, Creighton and Villanova over their current three game losing streak.  The Pirates have been a predictable team when it comes to SU wins and losses.  They have beaten the teams they should and lost to the teams they should.  With no marquee wins on their resume they cannot afford another let down to a mid-tier Big East foe.  They have done most of their damage offensively this season by penetrating the paint and making things happen.  Currently they rank in the top 25 in offensive efficiency and effective shooting percentage.  They get to the foul line a lot and shoot at a high percentage.  

Providence is coming off of a loss to Georgetown, where they blew a ten point second half lead.  The Friars lean on the two man show of guard David Duke and center Nat Watson, both average double digits and take over a large amount of the usage rate on the offense.  In the first matchup with Seton Hall they were able to combine for 41 points and 21 rebounds.  The Friars are a strange statistical team, they rank 199th in effective field goal percentage, yet they rank top 50 in adjusted offense according to Kenpom.  They have the ability to put the ball in the hoop but they will be without a key component in point guard Jerad Bynum who sliced up the Seton Hall defense last time they played scoring 9 points and adding 8 assists. 

Providence was able to defeat Seton Hall in their first matchup of the year because they shot 9-18 from three and the Friars had Jerad Bynum.  Seton Hall has issues defending the three but without Bynum the Friars won’t be able to penetrate the defense as easiliy which should allow the Pirates guards to stay home on the shooters.  Seton Hall is in need of a win and they will lean on their star Sandro Mamukelishvli.  This game has a -1.5 spread,  I would lean going with the spread but I figure why not just go ML to be safe.  

Play of the day: Seton Hall ML (-130)

NCAAB Play of the day: Ohio Bobcats at Central Michigan Chippewas

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The Ohio Bobcats are on a 3 game winning streak, that has been led by the return of their star guard Jason Preston.  With Preston on the court the Bobcats are a lethal offensive team ranking 27th nationally in effective field goal percentage at 55.1% on the season.  Preston is a stat stuffer that leads the offense in multiple categories, his ability to penetrate the defense opens up multiple passing lanes that create easy shots for his teammates.  The matchup with the dreadful Central Michigan Chippewas defense should turn into a showcase of the Junior point guard’s skills.  He is currently leading the Bobcats in points (16.4) and assists (7.5), second in rebounds (6.9), while shooting over 50% from the field.  With Preston on the court the Bobcats are a force in the offensive minded MAC. 

Central Michigan has allowed 78 ppg this season ranking near the bottom of all division 1 basketball.  They have given up 81, 89 and 83 over their past three games, all losses.  Overall Central Michigan has lost 7 of 9 in conference.  On the season they are just 4-7-2 against the spread, losing three straight numbers.  The Chippewas defense has had issues defending the interior, defensively they give up 52.6% on 2-pt field goals.  Ohio averages 55.8% from inside the 3-pt arc, ranking them top 20 in the nation.  

The Chippewa’s defensive issues will be on full display on Tuesday night.  They haven’t stopped anyone the entire season and the Ohio Bobcats with Jason Preston have been a juggernaut, running through everyone in front of them.  Central Michigan will not be able to stop Preston’s penetration.  Bobcats will win by double digits with ease.  

Play of the day: Ohio Bobcats -8

NCAAB Play of the Day: Illinois State Redbirds at Drake Bulldogs

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The Drake Bulldogs streak of covers was finally ended yesterday in an overtime victory against the Illinois State Redbirds, winning 78-76.  The Bulldogs struggled from the field the entire game, notably they struggled from behind the arc, shooting just 4-30 from three.  Star forward Shaquan Hemphill was also held in check, scoring just 6 points total in the game. Drake’s offense was not clicking; it was notable that their defense was not able to get stops down the stretch of the game.  Drake had only given up 61 ppg and allowed just 39% shooting on the season ranking them in the top 20 in the entire nation.  

Illinois State was able to strike fear into the Bulldogs and their fans making a solid second half comeback and forcing overtime.  They had a perfect game plan on Sunday afternoon forcing Drake into tough shots, while hitting three’s at nearly 50%.  Drake has been great at defending the three all season. They will not allow Illinois State to hit nine threes in their second contest.

Everything had to go right for Illinois State to pull off the upset on Sunday and it nearly did.  The Drake Bulldogs will be able to fix the problems they had in game one and will feed the ball to Shaquan Hemphill early to establish the inside game and open up the outside shooting.  Despite their solid play Illinois State still turned the ball over 18 times yesterday and that will be a big problem in the rematch.  Drake will clean up their mistakes and shoot more effectively.  I would look at the first half spread and see if it is manageable, but really like this to be a dominant effort from Drake to wash away the taste of near defeat heading into some bigger upcoming matchups in the Mo Valley.  

Play of the day: Drake Bulldogs -17.5

NCAAB Play of Day: Bellarmine Knights at Kennesaw State Owls

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In their first year of division 1 basketball the Bellarmine Knights have turned heads with their efficiency on the offensive end.  They are currently tied for second in the conference one game behind North Alabama. The Knights win by moving the ball and making the most of every trip, they have an effective field goal percentage of 54% which ranks them in the top 50 in the entire nation.  They have a team field goal percentage that ranks 18th in the nation. They are the top three-point shooting team in the Atlantic Sun shooting 39% from behind the arc.  They are led by Pedro Bradshaw in points and boards averaging 13 ppg and 7 rpg.  

Kennesaw State is a trainwreck on offense, averaging just 63 ppg and shooting just 30% from behind the arc.  They lean  on the duo of Spencer Rodgers and Chris Youngblood who are the only double digit scorers on the roster, averagina a combined 28 ppg.   As a team they don’t put the ball in the basket enough to be successful. They shoot just 42% from two and 27% from three on the season.  

Bellarmine has been disruptive on the defensive end causing turnovers 21% of the time.  Kennesaw State has turned the ball over 21% of the time on offense.  The Owls combination of poor shooting along with a high turnover rate will be a detriment to an efficient Bellermine Knights offensive attack.  Bellarmine has won and covered in four straight games while Kennesaw State has lost 11 straight games while only going 3-3 ATS at home on the season.  Bellarmine is 5-0 ATS on the road this season and that should continue in this matchup.  

Play of the day: Bellarmine Knights -7.5

NCAAB Play of the Day: Bradley Braves at Valparaiso Crusaders

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Two middle tier Missouri Valley teams face off in what looks to be a defensive minded affair between the Bradley Braves and the Valparaiso Crusaders.

The Bradley Braves enter this contest on a 3-game conference losing streak, falling short of taking down conference favorite Loyola-Chicago in a two game set and dropping a shocking game to Illinois State in a spot where they were clearly looking ahead.  They have had time to process the loss and now get a matchup with a low scoring Valpo team. Bradley ranks 81st in defensive efficiency in the country and  will stifle a Valpo offense that has scored under 69 points in 4 of 5 games.  

On the offensive side of the ball Bradley will have the best player on the court in Senior forward Elijah Childs averagin 14 points and 7 rebounds per game.  He is a do it all player on the offensive end and should be able to carry the load for the Braves.  The emergence of Junior guard Terry Nolan Jr. has been a big part of establishing the Braves offense along with Childs, Nolan has been shooting a respectable 35% from three for the season.  Bradley hopes to have Ja’Shon Henry backin the lineup, his 11 ppg and 60% shooting have been missed over the last three games.  If he is not able to go they should still be able to muster enough offense to grab an early lead and utilize their defense to hold down a Valpo team that has no one outside of Sophmore forward Ben Krikke that has been reliable on offense. 

Bradley’s defense will be too much for the struggling Crusader offense.  Bradley doesn’t allow you to score inside and their perimeter athletes are just better than what Valpo can bring to the table.  If you like a low scoring affair this one will be for you, I would think this game is going to stay under the 130 point mark but I feel more confident in a dominant effort from a Bradley squad looking to reestablish themselves in the Missouri Valley. 

Play of the day: Bradley Braves -5.5

NCAAB Play of the Day: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

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A clash of styles is going to take place Wednesday night when the Ole Miss Rebels visit the Arkanas Razorbacks.

The slow pace, defensive minded Rebels are coming off of two straight victories over Texas A&M and Mississippi State.  Both victories were played out in the same style, a slow grind it out affair where the Rebels were easily able to dictate the pace.  That pace is very slow, ranking 278th in the nation.  To win they just have to slow everything down and not allow the potent Arkansas offense to get rolling.  On offense the Rebels feature Senior guard Devontae Shuler, averagin 14 ppg and 4.1 apg, his ability to manage the slow pace on offense and find the best shot is literally the only offense they bring to the table. 

Arkansas rebounded from two straight losses with two straight victories over Vanderbilt and Auburn.  Their offense has been the story of the program all season, led by Freshman guard Moses Moody who is averagin 17 ppg this season and running the fast paced and efficient Razorbacks offense.  Arkansas is averaging 85 ppg this season ranking #9 overall. 

This game will be a clash of styles but the Arkansas offense is much more explosive. Ole Miss has had problems with efficient offensive teams, being dominated in their matchups with LSU, Alabama and Georgia.  The Rebels inability to shoot the ball from three or from the free throw line will be impossible to overcome a powerful offense.  Ole Miss shoots just 29% from behind the three,  that will limit any chance they have to overcome an Arkansas offense that will keep attacking.  The defense of Arkanas is underrated and their offense is going to be very tough to stop.  Razorbacks will be to efficient to overcome.  

Play of the day: Arkansas Razorbacks -4.5