Philip Rivers Sucks


I’m going to start by saying that I am not bashing a guy coming off of a bad performance. He was horrible last night in tough conditions but his four interceptions last night is not what this is about.  If you follow me on Twitter I have been saying this for the last two seasons, Philip Rivers sucks! He is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the history of the league. He has now put his team in a situation where they are not ready to move on from him right away and if they don’t they will waste a roster that should be better than it is

Rivers was drafted 4th overall by the New York Giants in 2004, famously moved to San Diego for Eli Manning.  Rivers is currently the last remaining QB from that class starting for his respective team, Manning being benched for Daniel Jones and Big Ben getting injured earlier in the season.  Rivers has been a Hall of Fame caliber player in his career currently sitting sixth on the all time passing yards, sixth in passing touchdowns and tenth in passer rating. Sometimes you can’t look at the numbers when you are breaking down a QB.  In this era all passing numbers are inflated due to the changing of rules protecting offensive players. 

Rivers has continual lead his team to mediocre play.  From 2010 to 2017 the Chargers made the playoffs just one time. In Rivers entire career he has won just five total playoff games.  This season Rivers has arguably his most talented group of skilled players, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler and the returning Melvin Gordon.  Despite the talent on the offensive end Rivers has continued to make wild erratic throws that don’t benefit himself or his team. He has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games and all of them are on throws that he should not have made. 

Philip Rivers is an old unathletic quarterback with a track record of being good.  He is not good, he was never going to be a top player in this league coming into the season.  The league is changing and players like Rivers are the old guard. He is not like Tom Brady. He doesn’t have the game changing understanding of defenses and intelligence to make the right call on the fly.  The Chargers have too many talented skilled players to put up with this ridiculously horrible gunslinger.  

Philip Rivers is holding this team back, if you watched last night you saw a guy that lost the game for his team.  It’s time to move on from Rivers. It has been time to move on from Rivers for two years and they have not equipped themselves to do so.  The Chiefs saw that they were stagnant with Alex Smith and moved on. The Giants saw that Eli was declining and finally made the right move benching the guy that was not able to transition to the current state of the league.  Next season there are multiple QB prospects that will be coming through the draft, with the new stadium on the way on a team that is ready to compete now you can’t wait around.  

If you are looking for more statistical reasons for his awful play the link below will breakdown his situation statistics. The most shocking be that he has thrown six interceptions in the fourth quarter and six more in his first 1-10 throws of the game. He literally turns the ball over at the two most critical points of games!

http://www.nfl.com/player/philiprivers/2506121/situationalstats?season=2017

Rivers has had a great career, but let’s face the facts.  Philip Rivers Sucks.

Thursday Night Pick Steelers vs. Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -3 

The Steelers have won four straight games propelling them into AFC playoff contention.   It’s been the defense that has taken the reigns with the loss of Big Ben and injury to James Conner. The Steelers defense has allowed fewer than 193 passing yards and 96 rushing yards over their last three games. Pittsburgh was able to bottle up the red-hot Cooper Kupp last week.  They will look to do the same to Odell Beckham. Beckham was targeted ten times last week but was still unable to make an impact in a game that Cleveland actually won. 

Cleveland’s offensive line has been solid on the run but has had serious problems protecting Baker in throwing situations. The Steelers are third in the league in sacks, while applying a ton of pressure.  Baker Mayfield has been subpar under pressure this season.  Mayfield has a completion percentage of just 37% while under pressure this season. Mayfield’s flaws are apparent, this matchup is not good for the struggling former #1 pick. 

Both of these teams need this win.  The Cleveland flaws are obvious.  Pittsburgh will be able to exploit those flaws while Mason Rudolph does what he does best: game manage.  Steelers are just a better overall team, most importantly better coaching. 

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3

NFL Week 9 picks ATS

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals +10

This line is interesting, seems like a letdown spot for the 49ers heading to Arizona.  The Cardinals have had issues in the red zone and the 49ers are great defending the red zone.  Arizona has problems against the tight end and the 49ers have the best tight end in football.  This is a smash spot for San Fran.  They will cover, don’t over think it.

Pick: San Francisco -10

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London) +1

I want to take the Texans. I love Deshaun Watson, but they have had their issues with the Jags.  The Houston line is in trouble, offseason acquisition Laremy Tunsil is very questionable which is a problem for the Texans.  The Jaguars have the pass rush to give Watson a lot of trouble, while the Texans have lost JJ Watt which obviously will hurt their pass rush. 

Jacksonville has been through these London games before,  that matters.  Jags will win a close one.

Pick: Jacksonville +1

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills -9.5

Washington is bad on offense, but they seem to know how to cover.  Dwayne Haskins does not look ready to be the starter, a matchup with the Bills terrible. My pick is based on assuming Case Keenum will play, if he plays they will find a way to cover.  

Pick: Washington +9.5

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers -4

I try to avoid the Titans because they are so unpredictable.  Ryan Tannahill has been great over his first two starts.  Notably dominating a poor Buccaneers secondary. This is going to be a different challenge for the former Miami QB.  The Panthers are coming off a shellacking at the hands of the 49ers last week which should put them in a foul mood heading into this game.

Carolina is a different team at home.  They will lean more heavily on their star running back Christian McCaffery, I will also look for Curtis Samuel to breakout in this one.  I think we are getting a great buy low on a Carolina team that is better than what we saw last week

Pick: Carolina -4

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles -5

Been back and forth on this one all week.  Trubisky has been horrible all season.  He gets a favorable matchup with the Eagles secondary.  This will be the time that we see the Trubisky of last season.  The Bears defense will keep them in the game by supplying a ton of pressure on Carson Wentz.  

Bear’s defense keeps them in it and cover.

Pick: Chicago +5

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins +3

The Jets are better than the Dolphins.  I see a big game from Sam Darnold.  Jets win by at least ten.

Pick: New York Jets -3

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers -1

The Colts are another case of public playing a recency bias, struggling mightily against the Denver Broncos last week.  Indianapolis has been good on the road going 2-1 covering or pushing the spread in each game. 

The Steelers will fall behind early in this game and the superior Colts offensive line will work the clock. Indy is the better team and has no fear of the road.

Pick: Indianapolis -1

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders -2

Two similar teams meeting in a must win situation makes for what should be a really fun matchup.  The way to beat the Raiders is to pressure on Derek Carr.  That is something that the Lions have not been successful in doing this season.  Oakland will lean on the running game and Josh Jacobs which will open up the passing game for Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams. 

The Raiders are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games.  The Lions have had problems ever since they lost Kerryon Johnson. Raiders win by 3.

Pick: Oakland -2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks -6

This is going to be an offensive explosion on both ends. The Buccaneers are going to bring their air raid offense to Seattle.  The time of the Legion of Boom is very over.  Seattle has been crushed through the air this year and will continue on Sunday. 

The Seattle Seahawks have failed to cover all four games at home this season.   They are a run first team which plays right into the hands of the Buccaneers who love to sell out to the run.  If Winston can avoid multiple turnovers this one should be close.

Pick: Tampa Bay +6

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos +3

Baker better come to play in Denver.  If the Browns lose to a rookie QB there will be full on anarchy.  Cleveland will put up too many points for the Broncos to keep up with.

Pick: Cleveland -3

Green Bay Packers at LA Chargers +4

This will be a home game for the Packers.  The Chargers were able to get to a much-needed victory of the Chicago Bears last week.  They face Aaron Rodgers this week rather than Mitchell Trubisky. Rodgers will reportedly have the services of Davante Adams

The Packers are already 3-0 against the spread on the road already and will continue their success. 

Pick: Packers -4

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens +3.5

You can run on the Patriots. Just hold on to the ball.  The Ravens will do their best to make sure that they keep Tom Brady off the field.  Baltimore is not scared of the Patriots and they will show it Sunday night.  

This is the toughest matchup of the year for New England.  They will be challenged in this one.  I see it as a field goal game.  Not sure which way so I have to go with the underdog at home.

Pick: Ravens +3.5

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants +7

I am keeping this last one simple.  I believe a lot of money will be on the Cowboys in this one.  The Giants have their full complement of offensive weapons. The Giants will be able to move the ball,  I wonder whether they will be able to stop the Cowboys.  I’m taking the home team with the points.  

Pick: New York Giants +7

Bets that should have won week 3

Giants beat the Buccaneers with a rookie QB. Took Tampa Bay

The matchup between Tampa Bay and New York was the definition of gambling  gone wrong. A rookie Quarterback on the road versus a well-rested Buccaneers team coming off of a huge upset victory over the Panthers. 

Jamies Winston came out firing, finding his number one target Mike Evans for 135 yards and three touchdowns in the first half! Tampa Bay took a 28- 10 lead into half time. This game was not only over but the -6 cover was a given.  No way a rookie Quarterback is going to lead a comeback victory on the road when their best player Saquon Barkley is no longer a part of the game plan. 

The Buccaneers then decided that it was time to be the Buccaneers.  Despite their dominance through the air Byron Leftwich decided it was time to lean on a non-existent run game.  Instead of relying on what was working they decided to go in the opposite direction.  Not many would agree with leaning your game plan on Jameis Winston, but it was working!

Daniel Jones went on to torch the Buccaneers along with our dreams of covering.  Jones became the first ever rookie quarterback to throw for 300 yards, touch owns and run for two touchdowns.  The media will play up Jones as a savior of New York Giants football. While he killed me this weekend, I will be fading him next week.  

Panthers win without Cam. Took Arizona +2.5

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals were at home, the Panthers were without their Quarterback.  Arizona was coming off of two large late game comebacks versus the Ravens and Lions.  The momentum of Arizona rightfully put them as the favorite.  The Cardinals were going to face Kyle Allen, an undrafted free agent out of Houston. 

The Cardinals fast paced offense was supposed to lead to big points, the pace worked against Arizona as Allen was able to pick them apart utilizing CMC and the ageless wonder Greg Olsen. Arizona has a strong future ahead of them but they let us down in week 3 and continue tough matchups in week 4. 

Seahawks lose at home to a backup QB. Took Seattle -4

I had two locks this week. The first of those being the Seahawks at home -4 versus the New Orleans Saints without Drew Brees.  This was a game that I though Vegas had lost its mind. The Seahawks were coming off of two victories in a row where they dominated on the offensive end.  Seattle was playing at home against a Quarterback that hadn’t played a full game in like two years.  

Seattle decided to pick this weekend to lay an egg.  Literally seems like Chris Carson believes the ball is an egg and it can only stay safe on the turf. New Orleans showed up on defense and special teams allowing Teddy Bridgewater to play the role of game manager.  New Orleans got a boost from their ancillary pieces, something they cannot rely on in the weeks to come.  

Seattle’s defense is not what I thought they would be when they picked up Jadaveon Clowney, continually giving up big plays.  Their offense makes for a great matchup for week 4 when they face the Cardinals.

Forget the Waiver Wire- Play your Bench

Injuries week one are going to open the door for multiple “handcuffs” and waiver wire pickups to make an impact in week two.  Injuries to Darrius Guice, Nick Foles, Tevin Coleman and Joe Mixon should leave other players with a chance to make impacts.  I am looking more toward the players that showed up bigger than expected the first week of the season.  Here are three players that are will continue to overplay their preseason fantasy value in week two. They are most likely owned in your league, put them in the lineup!

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Baltimore Ravens (32% ESPN) (30% Yahoo)

Speed plays in the NFL. Look at the breakouts of Alvin Kamara and Tyreke Hill over the past few seasons.  Marquise Brown showed off that speed in his first career NFL game. Catching his first pass for a 47-yard slant straight to the endzone.  Brown continued to dominate the field going for 147 total yards and adding another 40-yard touchdown reception.  

Marquise will get another favorable matchup in week 2 when the Ravens take on the Arizona Cardinals who just gave up 385 passing yards to the Detroit Lions in week one.  Danny Amendola put up huge numbers last week hauling in seven catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.  While Brown will have his ups and downs during his first season in the league he will have flashes of brilliance like he did Week 1.  Week 2 should be just as explosive. 

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets, (70% ESPN) (46% Yahoo)

Drafting Jamison Crowder always comes with its risk.  As a multi time Crowder drafter I have been bite quit a few times.  Like an addict though I just couldn’t get enough of the potential high that Crowder can bring.  Taking Crowder looks like it may pay off heading into week one.  Crowder found himself as the favorite target for Sam Darnold. catching 14 of 17 passes for 99 yards. While Crowder didn’t find the endzone he still brought tons of value especially in PPR leagues. 

The best part about Crowder is that he is still available in over 50% of leagues.  Crowder’s health during a full season is always up in the air. In week two the Jets will matchup with the Browns coming off of an embarrassing defeat against the Tennessee Titans 43-13.  Marcus Mariota was able to torch the Browns secondary, the Jets should have a similar chance to do that on Monday.  

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills, (70% ESPN) (71% Yahoo)

Singletary was listed at the top of the depth chart in Buffalo to begin the season.  Playing 70% of the snaps for the Bills in week one showed who was considered to be the #1 RB for Buffalo but his actual carries were limited to just four actual carries.  Singletary was able to gain 70 yards as well as bring in five catches. Singletary showed the bust-out potential he has, which will make him a featured back going into week 2. 

A matchup with the Giants defense is just what the doctor ordered for a potential impactful game. New York gave up 151 rushing yards to the Dallas Cowboys last week, they should not bring an impactful push against the run heavy Buffalo Bills.  Singletary will be the featured back and should have a very solid game ahead of him.  I’m looking for 100+ rushing yards and 50+ receiving yards.

NFC East- A Two Team Race

The NFL is giving social media dramatic gold over the last few months.  The Antonio Brown Saga, Zeke and Gordon’s holdouts and just Baker Mayfield being Baker Mayfield. While I love drama, I prefer to talk about the play of the field.   I am starting my NFL previews with the top-heavy NFC East.  

The Cowboys finished one game ahead of the Nick Foles lead Philadelphia Eagles last year.  A lot has changed for both teams heading into the 2019 season.  With Foles now taking his snaps in Jacksonville the Eagles are planning to lean solely on their injury prone Quarterback. The Cowboys have seen few actual changes, but they do have some bigger issues, that being the new contract for star running back Ezekiel Elliot as well as the new contract for the “franchise” quarterback Dak Prescott. 

Washington Redskins

The Redskins did the right thing, taking Dwayne Haskins with the number 15 pick in this year’s draft. Alex Smith will not be a part of the conversation any time soon, so they had to look towards the future. Haskins will compete for a job that most likely will be going to veteran Case Keenum, but the future looks bright along with the returning Derrius Guice.  

The Redskins will have a lot of offensive struggles this season. They have built a strong core for their defense with the pickup of Landon Collins.  Collins will sure up the secondary while fellow first round pick defensive end Montez Sweat, first team All-American from Mississippi State will sure up a defensive line that already features All-Rookie nose tackle Da’Ron Payne

Washington should be in full rebuild mode. Jay Gruden needs to make the youth movement happen in Washington.  It’s time to move on from Adrian Peterson and Case Keenum, if Washington focuses on the veterans rather than the future, they will not only suffer this year but for years to come. 

New York Giants

New York’s offseason was dysfunctional.  Moving on from Odell Beckham, Olivier Vernon, Landon Collins and drafting Daniel Jones were all questionable moves.  Filling in for Beckham was veteran Golden Tate who began his career as a Giant with a suspension.  

The Giants have last year’s offensive rookie of the year Saquon Barkley leading their offense, all they need is for Eli Manning to play mistake free football and to find a way to protect him to be successful. New York has to begin the rebuild.  They have the pieces to begin the rebuild but will be far from where they need to be.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are loaded offensively.  Re-Adding DeSean Jackson gives them a deep threat that will open up the middle for Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.  Philly quietly added even more depth to the running game with the additions of bruiser Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders joining the litany of other running backs.  Fantasy owners will have inner turmoil, while Doug Pederson utilizes each running back to their strengths.  

Philly has fixed their secondary issues from last season by simply getting healthy. The addition of Malik Jackson from Jacksonville should help clog up the middle allowing the elite outside pass rushers force throws.  The Eagles should have advantages on both sides of the ball next year.  In the end the health of Carson Wentz will determine the success of the Eagles and the division.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas has built one of the best young defenses in the NFL.  DeMarcus Lawrence, Leighton Vander Esch and the newly extended Jaylon Smith made Dallas a defensive force that gave the LA Rams all they could handle in last year’s playoffs.  The Dallas D will be the backbone of the Cowboys team.  

Jason Garrett will have a few more weapons this year.  A full season of Amari Cooper, an emerging Michael Gallup and free agent Randall Cobb should make for an explosive passing game.  The contract issues with Ezekiel Elliott will be huge in determining what the Dallas offense is going to look like this season.  Rookie Tony Pollard has stepped up early in the preseason but potentially not having the best running back is obvious bad news.  The Cowboys will be forced to rely on Dak Prescott taking the next step in his progression as a player. 

Prediction

The NFC East is a two-team race.  The Cowboys and the Eagles will compete for superiority in the division while the Giants and the Redskins will be fighting for mediocrity.  Saquon Barkley and Dwayne Haskins will be fun players to watch progress but for those teams to be successful they will need above average play from players that are not ready to play at a championship level. 

Eventually it will come down to Carson Wentz versus Dak Prescott.  Wentz ultimately has more talent on the offensive end to make the plays down the stretch.  The inner locker room turmoil of the offseason will be too much to overcome for “America’s Team”

  1. Philadelphia Eagles
  2. Dallas Cowboys
  3. Washington Redskins
  4. New York Giants

Three Fantasy Sleepers- Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have lost both Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson in the offseason leaving a huge gap in the wide receiving core of the Buccaneers heading into the season. Godwin had a breakout campaign last season going for 59 catches, 842 yards and 7 touchdowns. Godwin will now step into a starter role for the Buccaneers who have shown an inability to run the ball as well as hold onto leads.  That means they are going to have to throw the ball.  

The Buccaneers have two obvious high valued receivers in Mike Evans and OJ Howard.  Godwin should be able to slip down in drafts; his current ADP is projecting him as a 5thround pick.  Most drafters will not look to him that high, he can be a steal on an up-tempo offense.  

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

I was a major believer in Christian Kirk last season, and he had moments where he proved me correct. Kirk will enter the season with a new QB at the helm and a new offensive game plan. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury will lead to major production for most Cardinals offensive players.  We know Kingsbury will be pass happy with his offense, so Kyler Murray could easily put up north of 500 pass attempts in 2019. 

Kirk is currently projecting as a seventh-round pick. Overall his ranking is as high as the #32 pick in some drafts. In this new offense Kirk will have the chance to be a top receiver on teams especially in PPR.  

Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders

Williams has moved out of the shadow of Keenan Allen and entered the shadow of Antonio Brown. Taking over the number two receiver role in Oakland doesn’t sound like a big deal but the history of the second receiver behind Antonio Brown should be something to look in to.  Juju Smith-Schuster and company have built their careers on being the second option opening up the field for single coverage. 

Williams has only had over 100 targets one in his career. In 2016 getting over 100 targets led to major production with 69 catches, 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns.  The Raiders have to replace over 359 targets from last season, if Brown plays then obviously, he will get over 100 but Williams should be second.  The Raiders have a lot of inner turmoil, but Williams speed and upside should make him a target for later rounds.  You can easily get him with one of your last couple picks, he will have the potential be a huge player down the stretch of your fantasy season.