NFL

Waiver Wire adds week 3

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Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

Tua threw for 469 yards in a miracle comeback in week 2.  Should we overreact to this heading into week 3?  The answer is yes, but honestly it isn’t actually an overreaction. The Dolphins brought in the fastest receiver in all of football, adding Tyreke Hill to go along with Jaylen Waddle.  Collectively the Dolphins arguably have the two most talented receivers in all of football.  

Miami has a tough matchup with the powerful Buffalo Bills but after that matchup they have five straight awesome matchups.  The Dolphins may have been a sleeping giant that was woken up by the abilities of their QB and receivers.  SnagTua now and stash him as your future starter the rest of the season. 

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

Remember Elijah Moore? Nope me either.  It has been the Garrett Wilson show in New York.  Joe Flacco targeted the rookie out of Ohio State 14 times on Sunday.  Those targets were productive, Wilson finished with 114 yards and 2 touchdowns.  His breakout performance wasn’t out of nowhere, he had 8 total targets in week one.  

He is the one of only two receivers ever to put up 30 fantasy points in one of their first two games of the season in the last decade. Wilson was a top ten pick in the 2021 draft for a reason, right now he appears to be Joe Flacco’s favorite receiver.  

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Every week I am going to keep trying to find a tightend worth the start.  This week I focused on Jacksonville’s new tightend, the often disappointing Evan Engram. Engram is coming off of an 8 target day against the Colts.  He hauled in 7 catches for 46 yards, in a PPR league a TE with those kinds of numbers going along with a snap share over 70% is a need. 

The Jaguars have moved the ball around on offense but the upside of Engram is impossible to ignore.

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire adds Week 1

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Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders

Jahan Dotson exploded onto the scene in week one catching three passes, two for touchdowns.  Dotson had five total targets but the fact that he was targeted in the redzone for his first touchdown and grabbed a 24 yard touchdown for his second.  Dotson ran 40 routes while playing a total of 88% of the team’s snaps. 

His versitility for the scores makes him a feasible addition to any fantasy team, especially  in a three receiver league. 

Jeff Wilson, RB, 49ers

The premier target for most teams looking for an RB will be Steelers Jaylen Warren.  The injury to Najee Harris will open up a lot of options for Warren, but I would prefer going for the proven commodity that is a TD vulture.  Jeff Wilson will never get 20+ carries in a game but with the most recent injury to Elijah Mitchell, Wilson will likely be listed as the starting RB in week 2. 

Wilson will lose carries to the multi-talented Deebo Samuel but it’s more than likely Wilson will see the ball in goal line situations. 

OJ Howard, TE, Houston Texans

Howard was not a snap percentage monster, but at a position where outside of the top three there isn’t much depth a red zone target like Howard is a needed addition on most fantasy rosters . 

Hayden Hurst would likely be my favorite overall addition to a roster but I had him as a sleeper already in a write up, in this instance I think the former Crimson Tide tightend brings so much value in a position that you really just need TD’s he has to be added.  Likely will be most managers first choice.  

NFL Division Picks – 2023

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I am a day late on these picks but Thursday’ game confirmed my thoughts on a few spots. Below are the each divisions

NFC West- San Francisco 49ers 

Trey Lance is going to make the difference.  The 49ers and Rams are pretty even if you spread out the overall talent. The biggest difference for Los Angeles is consistency at QB and ofcourse Aaron Donald.  

Lance is a dynamic athlete that is going to challenge opposing defeneses.  Donald will not have a stagnant Jimmy G in the pocket, it will be a bigger challenge for the all-time great.  The Rams will be in the playoffs but it is concerning that your QB had offseason surgery on his throwing arm.  I am going to give the Niners the edge, not by much.  Lance could struggle to start the season but his talent is limitless.

NFC South- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady’s return locked up the division for the Bucs. Even at his senior age Brady can manage an offense loaded with weapons.  The NFC South will have an improved Carolina team with hopefully a healthy Baker Mayfield and a Saints team with a healthy Jamies Winston, but both of those QB’s are unproven in the big moment. 

The Bucs can rely on their run game with Leonard Fournette and rookie Rashaad White.  Give Brady a solid run game and he will be able to pick apart one on ones all over the field.  Tampa also has the best defense in the conference.  

NFC North- Green Bay Packers

The Packers don’t really care who takes the field with Aaron Rodgers.  Put out whomever you want and he will find a way to make them great.  This has been the game plan for the last few years in Green Bay.  Somehow a team that traded away arguably the best receiver in the NFL is a considerable favorite to not only take their division but many see them as a threat to win the NFC. 

There are questions on the offensive line, questions about receivers, questions about Rodgers hair length.  Lots of questions but the only answer needed is Aaron Rodgers is so much better than every other QB in this division.  The defense is legit and they have a two man running attack that will cause teams problems.  Vikings should make it interesting, the Lions are better but in the end Rodgers will lead the Packers to the NFC North title. 

NFC East- Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles made the sexy moves in the offseason, adding WR AJ Brown and CB James Bradberry.  Philly made the statement that they are going to rely on Jalen Hurts to run their revamped offense.  If Hurts can take the next step with his accuracy to go along with his dynamic running ability then the Eagles may have something. 

Philly will be fun on the offensive end but the problems will still be there on defense.  Against quality QB’s they will continue to stuggle.  Dak Prescott is healthy and still has elite level weapons. The x-factor could be the continued use of Tony Pollard in the short pass game, his ability to create will help while the Cowboys figure out their offensive line questions. The Dallas defense has more playmakers that can make a difference. They win the division but it will be down to the last game per usual.

AFC South- Indianapolis Colts

Matt Ryan is super exciting, but adding an MVP QB that seems like he still has the ability to make plays is always a good thing.  Ryan’s biggest attribute will be his leadership.  Compared to Carson Wentz it’s pretty much as solid an upgrade as you can get.

The Jags will be better in 2022 but the only real competition comes from Derrick Henry and the guys that play with him (Titans).  Tennessee lost a big part of their defense when Harold Landry went down with an ACL injury.  Tennessee will have to lean on the run game and hope the defense can hold up.  This is Jonathon Taylor’s division and he will own it. 

AFC West- Los Angeles Chargers

Easily the most competitive division in football. The Broncos added Russell Wilson, the Raiders added Davante Adams, the Chargers and Chiefs have two QB’s competing for the MVP. 

The Chargers will return their entire offense that was tops in the league last season.  Austin Ekeler will be joined by promising rookie Isiah Spiller, while Joshua Palmer is considered a potential breakout candidate.  Oh, they also added a solid TE in former Ram Gerald Everett.  The Chargers also addressed a huge problem from last season, adding Sebastian Joesph-Day and Austin Johnson to slow down opposing run games.  They also added Khalil Mack, he and Joey Bosa will make things fun for Patrick Mahomes.  The Chargers will be a problem on both sides of the football. 

AFC North- Baltimor Ravens

If DeShaun Watson was playing before week 11 the Browns would have a shot at this division. Since he is not this is a two team race between the Ravens and the Bengals.  Cincy has another year of progression for Joe Burrow will make the Bengals offense something fun to watch all season.  They should put up a great fight against the Ravens, but Balitmore has a better coach and better defense.  Lamar Jackson still lacks the weapongs Burrow has but there is enough there for the Ravens to put up plenty of points.  

Don’t sleep on Rashad Bateman and rookie tightend Isiah Likely.  They can both be huge for the Ravens in 2022.  I think Jackson puts up MVP numbers, and the Ravens take the division by one game. 

AFC East- Buffalo Bills

Maybe the Dolphins test the Bills? Ha, no Bills win this division without a challenge if Josh Allen is healthy.  He is too good and the pass rush is ferocious. 

Fantasy Longshots

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QB: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

The Raiders added arguably the best wide receiver in all of football in the offseason.  When you add a star like Davante Adams your offense immediately goes to the next level.  Aaron Rodgers former #1 target gives the Raiders a threat in the red zone that they seemed to lack for most of the 2022 season. It also doesn’t hurt that there is a built in connection with Carr and Adams from their time playing together at Fresno State. 

Carr has the most weapons he has ever had while under center with the Raiders, a clear #1 receiver, a freak athlete and tight end, Darren Waller, and a reliable slot receiver in Hunter Renfrow.  He also has a great mind at the helm, new coach Josh McDaniels could be a big factor in his progression to upper level fantasy QB territory.

WR: Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs

Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore was undervalued in the draft, likely due to being a part of a league that is not really known for being very defensive. Moore is “more” than just a product of MACtion.  He fell to the second round in a receiver heavy draft.

Moore will have to compete with fellow offseason additions Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the speedy wideouts looks like a perfect fit to replace the departed Tyreke Hill. His impressive YAC ability was tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles. Patick Mahomes will need someone to pull the safeties deep to open up the middle for Kelce and company. Moore has the chance to be an immediate impact for the high powered offense in Kansas City.

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson finished the 2021 season with 606 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. As part of a three headed RB attack along with Brandon Bolden and Damien Harris.  Stevenson will not be the everydown back for New England but he should see plenty of opportunities out of the backfield in what they are calling the “James White” role of the New England offense. 

New England QB Mac Jones will likely see Stevenson as his safety net over the middle and on third downs.  Stevenson could become a serious red zone threat as well if he is about to be as productive as the former receiving RB James White was able to be.  Stevenson is also versatile in the running game, his ability to break tackles is on an elite level.  Bill Belichek tends to be unpredictable at times with his RB roles but this one looks like a solid lock as a weekly flex option, with explosive potential. 

TE: Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati Bengals

When the Falcons drafted future star Kyle Pitts, most forgot that they actually had a pretty talented tightend on the roster in Hayden Hurst. In 2020 Hurst put up 600 yards to go along with 6 touchdowns, he was emerging into a solid plug and play tightend. 

Hurst now finds himself on a Bengals team with an emerging offensive  and a litany of talent on the outside that will open up opportunities for him to return to his productive form.  Hurst will take over the role vacated by CJ Uzomah.  Uzomah had a route running participation of 78%, which is extremely valuable for any player that is not a primary receiver.  While being on the field doesn’t always lead to production, Hurst could find himself in so favorable one on one matchups because of the speed of Jamar Chase on the outside.  

His 6’4” 245lb frame could also make for a nice red zone target for Joe Burrow.  Hurst will likely go undrafted in many leagues but could be a sneaky addition in season or a late round pick for someone taking a gamble at the position.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers ATS

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers -6

The Packers are unbeaten at home this season. Perhaps even more impressive they are 7-1 ATS the spread at Lambeau, averaging 30 ppg.  Green Bay will enter this game fully healthy with the return of David Bakhitari on offense, Jaire Alexander and Whitney ZaDarius Smith on the defensive side of the ball. The defensive goal will be to limit the big plays of the versatile Deebo Samuel. Samuel averages 18.2 yards per catch and 6.2 yards per carry.  He is the spark that lights the fire for the San Francisco offense.  

The 49ers have already pulled off an upset in these playoffs.  They defeated the Dallas Cowboys in AT&T Stadium.  The 49ers were able to jump out to a lead early and coast their way to victory.  The game got interesting downt he stretch because the San Francisco defense lost two key players, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. To hold down Aaron Rodgers and company they will need their defense at full force. 

The Packers defeated the 49ers on a late field goal in San Francisco in week three of the regular season. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams were able to connect for 12 catches, 132 yards and a touchdown.  Aaron Jones ran the ball effectively, going for 82 yards and a touchdown.  The Packers have been in a grove all season, if you take away the abomanation of week one.  The 49ers will have to be able to create pressure to be able to slow down the Green Bay offense.  If Bosa can’t go, they will be in a lot of trouble.  

Green Bay will be able to score early and put the pressure of Jimmy G who is still not playing at 100%.  When Green Bay grabs the lead the 49ers will have to throw and when the pressure is on the San Fran QB tends to make mistakes. 

Pick: Green Bay Packers -6

Bengals vs. Titans ATS

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Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans 

The Bengals won their first playoff game in 31 years last week.  They got the monkey off their back, now they have to deal with a bull. The Titans will be welcoming back Derrick Henry for the first time since he broke his foot at the end of October.  

Without their star the Titans were still able to lock down the #1 seed.  The game plan did not change much even without Henry, they ranked 5th in the league in rushing.  The Bengals have been great against the run all season but they lost multiple defensive lineman last week including Larry Ogunjobi and leading pass rusher Trey Hendrickson.  Cincy will have to stack the box to stop Henry, which will open up the passing game for Ryan Tannahill and his finally healthy receiving core.  This could be  a big opportunity for veteran Julio Jones who will get a lot of one on one coverage from secondary CB’s.  This game is the reason the Titans got Jones in the offseason, he will have a huge day.  

Joe Burrow can be lethal if he has a clean pocket. The Bengals will have a tough time keeping him clean, Tennessee has multiple dominant pass rushers.  Harold Landry leads the way with 12 sacks, Denico Autry has 9 and Jeffery Simmons has 8.5.  Cincinnati has given up a league leading 53 Sacks on the season and Saturday their biggest weakness will be exposed. 

The Bengals are ahead of schedule, Burrow and the boys have a great core to build around but the losses on the defensive side and the return of Henry will be too much to overcome for a Titans team that is 6-3 ATS at home.  I am going to buy a half point and hammer the titans to cover.  

Pick: Titans -3

AFC Playoffs Picks ATS

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Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders dispatched Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers to earn the last playoff spot in the AFC. Their reward is a matchup with another stud QB Joe Burrow and the NFC North Champion Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals are ahead of schedule in their rebuild. The Bengals were road warriors this year, going 6-2 ATS and 5-3 overall on the road. One of those road wins was a 32-13 beating of the Raiders on November 21st. Joe Mixon dominated on the ground, running for 123 yards and two touchdowns. The time of possession was widely in favor of the Bengals at +15 minutes.

The Bengals are not a run first team but they are able to lean on Mixon in the right matchups. If they can establish the run again they can neutralize the biggest defensive asset of the Raiders, their pass rush. Joe Burrow has multiple weapons to take advantage of the Raiders stacking the box and should be able to pick apart the defense if he gets 1on 1 coverage on Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase.

Their defense may have a slight advantage but I don’t see how their offense can keep up with Joe and the boys. Vegas leads the NFL in penalty yards per game at 63 yards per game, while the Bengals are one of the more disciplined teams in football. This is a ten point game at least. Rolling with Joe, cigars for everyone.

Pick: Bengals -6

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

This game is simple. Can Buffalo stop the New England run game? They stop the run, they win the game. They don’t stop the run, they lose.

The Bills have the #1 overall defense in the NFL. They however possess the #13 overall defense against the run. The Patriots have shown the ability to run the ball in their two matchups with Buffalo, the infamous “wind” game was a ground dominate effort leading the a Patriots victory, in matchup two the Bills offense shined. Josh Allen led the Bills to a 33-21 victory in Foxboro, while giving up 103 yards and three tuddys to Damien Harris.

The Patriots have struggled down the stretch because of the regression of rookie Mac Jones. Over his last five he has thrown five interceptions. Belicheck will not allow the game to be on the shoulders of his rookie QB. He will limit the throws and pound the ball right down the middle of the Buffalo defense. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will be available, which means fresh legs for the Patriots run game.

Josh Allen is a stud, but this is the third meeting this year, hard for me to believe the Patriots won’t be ready to limit his downfield throws.

This division matchup will be gritty, no matter what this will be decided by a field goal. I like the Patriots to keep this close and potentially win because Allen can’t get the ball in his hands enough.

Pick: Patriots +4

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

A lot of things went right to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers to get into the playoffs. The luck has run out. The Chiefs have found their groove at the right time and they get the best matchup they could possibly ask for with an over the hill relic of a hall of fame QB in Big Ben.

The Chiefs smacked the Steelers in the face just two weeks ago. They will do it again on Sunday, ending a historic career, finally. The Chiefs hold the advantage in nearly every category, including on the defensive end. The “vaunted” Steelers defense ended the season in the bottom ten in points against. Their inability to stop the run has allowed teams to control the clock and score at will. If they can’t get pressure on the QB they are basically just crash pads in the middle of the field. The Chiefs have averaged 35 points per game over their last four, the Steelers just don’t have the firepower to match them.

The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. They are red hot, fully healthy and playing at home. The Steelers would be a nice story but Big Ben hasn’t had a QBR over 35 in his last five games. If they fall behind its going to be tough to beat the Chiefs if your QB can’t throw it over 20 yards. Najee Harris will likely make a big play at some point and Dionte Johnson will break loose, but it won’t be enough. Double digits in the playoffs is never an easy cover but this one is a mismatch of organization going in different directions.

Pick: Chiefs -13

Fantasy Football- Four late round targets

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Value is the key to having a successful fantasy football draft. Finding sleepers is not an easy thing to do.  Injuries and stupidity from your conterparts can sometimes work out in your favor.  Here are a few guys that you can grab late that can end up being in that playoff lineup.  

Javonte WIlliams, RB, Denver Broncos, ADP: 64

Williams put up ridiculous numbers in his final season at North Carolina, finishing the season with 22 touchdowns and averaging 7.3 yards per carry. He was snagged in the second round by the Denver Broncos.  Williams will have to contend with veteran Melvin Gordon for carris but his experience sharing carries in college will prepare him for that role.  He will step onto the field ready to make the most of every touch.

When drafting Williams you may have to wait a few weeks to get the payback but the organization spent a top 35 pick on him which means they want him to play immediately.  Gordon is in his age 28 season and has a history of injury issues, you could likely see a time split early on in the season with Williams ability ultimately winning over the position.  

The Broncos have question marks with Drew Lock but the offensive weapons are still there and can create a lot of scoring opportunities. The solid Broncos defense could also play a factor into games, keeping it close, allowing the offense to play ball control with its two running backs.  Williams ability to break any play will be a great asset for your fantasy team.

Jamal Williams, RB, Detroit Lions, ADP: 125

Another overlooked Williams in the backfield is former Packer Jamaal Williams who inked a deal with the rival Detroit Lions in the offseason.  Williams has already shown the ability to make the most of his touches playing behind fantasy standout Aaron Jones last season.  Getting potentially limited touches behind second year runner De’Andre Swift shouldn’t deter you from taking a chance on the 26-year-old power runner. 

The Lions moving from Mathew Stafford to Jared Goff is a change in the offensive gameplan. Jared Goff’s style of play opens up the run game, utilizing the play action.  Goff has consistently had running backs that have excelled behind him.  The Lions starting RB Deandre Swift has shown an inability to stay on the field, which will mean more carries for Williams who has the ability to be an every down back. 

Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets, ADP: 123

A former first round pick that has become the focal point of a new offense with a dynamic QB at the helm.  That former first round pick is also coming off of the best season of his career and will likely be the deep threat for a team that will be playing from behind a lot during the 2021 season. With a new QB means a new favorite target and Zach Wilson has already made it clear that Davis is going to be his favorite. Wilson has thrown to Davis in 55% of his throws in the preseason. 

The Jets have rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason in order to protect their #2 overall pick. The idea is that Wilson will be allowed to let loose just like he did at BYU and if that is the ase the #1 option will be Corey Davis.  The best part is that you can get a top receiver with your 11th round pick or maybe even later.  

Ja’Mar Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, ADP: 59

Rookie receivers can come with risks.  It is one of the hardest positions to learn at the next level.  Luckily for Ja’Mar Chase he has a built in chemistry with QB Joe Burrow because of their time at LSU.  Chase has had a tough preseason, three drops on three targets in their most game has a lot of fantasy owners questioning him which could allow you to pick him up late in your drafts.  

The Bengals threw the ball a lot last season, regression is likely but when the game is on the line they will be looking to throw the ball.  The former LSU standout will get a lot of one-on-one coverage due to last year’s emergence of Tee Higgins.  Chase has the ability to be a top ten wide receiver as he progresses throughout the season.  Bengals Head Coach Zac Taylor was the mastermind that was able to bring the best out of Jared Goff, utilizing multiple wide receivers over the middle for short passes that eventually could open up the big play.  Joe Burrow is  way ahead of Goff and Chase is the most talented receiver on the team.  He will have an impact on a fantasy championship.

NFL Playoff Saturday – Betting Each Game

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Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have won six straight games and covered in eight straight games.  The Bills offense has set the tone scoring 31 ppg this season, ranking second in the NFL.   Josh Allen has dominating opposing defenses, putting himself in the middle of the MVP conversation. Allen has thrown for 15 touchdown passes in his last five games.  He will be without one of his favorite targets, Cole Beasley, but last week’s return of John Brown should make up for the loss. Stefon Diggs has shown that he is a top ten receiver in the NFL and has become a matchup nightmare for any team.  The Colts are only 20th in the league in yards versus the pass.  The combination of Diggs and Allen is one of the top combinations in the league and will show it on Saturday. 

The Colts have gottent he reputation of being a defensive team this year.  They have one of best defensive players in pro bowl linebacker Darius Leonard and rank second in the league in rush yards against and 10th in ppg given up.  The defense has stood out but while the offense has been on a nice roll all season.  They rank top 11 in both run and pass offense.  Rookie RB Jonathon Taylor has established himself as the lead back, scoring five touchdowns in his last three games, as well as running for 253 yards in their season finale.  QB Phillip Rivers has spread the ball around all season.  TY Hilton, Zac Pascal, Michael Pittman Jr., and Nyheim Hines have all been effective receivers for the Colts and any one of them could be the go-to target on Saturday.  

These two teams have been great to the over all season, combined they are 20-11 to the over.  They both feature top ten scoring offenses in the league.  The Colts have to take the lead early to have a chance against the powerful Bills offense.  While the Colts have the ability to run the ball effectively they don’t have Josh Allen.  Buffalo will give up points but this game is going to be high scoring so I am going with the team that has the better skill position players.

Pick: Over 52, Bills -6.5

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Two teams that are very familiar with each other meet on Saturday when the Rams head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks.  Both teams have questions on the offensive side of the ball, the Rams may be without starting QB Jared Goff while Seattle has had issues putting the ball in the endzone.  

The Seahawks started the season dominating on the offensive end averaging over 40 points per game in their first five.  Lately outside of a 40 point effort against the lowly Jets, Seattle has not found the same success.  Over their last 8 games the Seahawks are averaging just 23 ppg.  

The Rams may not have Goff on Saturday but they should have back WR Cooper Kupp who had to sit out the season finale with Arizona due to covid protocols.  Backup QB John Wolford showed some great elusive skills as a runner in his first career start, causing all kinds of problems for the Cardinals linebackers.  His ability to run opened up the pass game in the second half and with the return of Kupp and another week back for Cam Akers the Rams offense should give problems to a Seattle defense that has been great lately but may not have Safety Jamal Adams. 

These two teams have a lot of important injuries that are TBD.  Even if Goff is able to suit up it seems unlikely he can be very effective.  The Rams offense hasn’t been effective at all over the last five weeks, while the Seattle defense has transformed after the addition of Carlos Dunlap.  Even without Jamal Adams the Seattle defense can be effective against the Rams.  Seattle brings more weapons to the offesnive side.  I am going to trust Russell Wilson and the Seattle defense over a litany of uncertainty that the Rams have to deal with. 

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

The Washington Football Team won the NFC East.  They did this with a QB that literally couldn’t walk a year ago and a coach that likely had a lot of other things on his mind. The Football Team is built aroun their stellar defense led by rookie Chase Young.  They have held teams to just 20 ppg and just 190 yards through the air.  They haven’t given up more than 20 points in their last six games. With an offense that has not been able to find a grove the whole season due to many different QB changes, ultimately leading to former first round pick Dwayne Haskins getting released. Veteran Alex Smith will have to do his best to limit turnovers and take advantage of any positive field position. 

The Washington defense will face Tom Brady and the red hot offense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Brady was able to figure out his offensive weapons capabilites against the inferior defenses of Detroit, Minnesota and Atlanta (2) over their last four games.  Tampa Bay has not been able to establish the run consistently, if they are forced to throw consistently on Saturday they will be in trouble against the Washington defensive line.  Chase Young and Montez Sweat bring constant pressure. Brady has had his issues with tough defensive line and that should continue in this matchup.

Tampa Bay’s defense is a great matchup against the Washington offense that has to lean on the run due to lack of talent on the outside. Washington’s run first offense will have a lot of trouble against he leagues #1 overall run defense.  Tampa has basically taken the run away from opposing teams, they have had issues getting pressure on the QB but they won’t have to worry about a lot of downfield plays against Washington.  

Brady will struggle against the pressure, Washington will be able to get pressure with its front four allowing them to double the explosive receivers downfield.  The Bucs offense will struggle early but make adjustments in the second half that will allow them to just score more points than a lackluster opposing offense.  This game will be a chess match that may score the least amount of points of wild card weekend.  Bucs will win but won’t cover. 

Pick: Washington Football Team +9, Under 44.5 

NFL DFS Picks Dec.6 (Main Slate)

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*These are just suggestions!

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers made it look easy last Sunday against the Chicago Bears. He has put up at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last six games.  The Eagles are actually pretty good against QBs this season but they will have to face a red hot Rodgers who should have most of his offensive talent available to him.  He has built chemistry with players other than just Davante Adams.  Robert Tonyan and Allen Lazard have both seen steps forward.  Aaron is priced pretty fairly at just $6,800.  I want to ride the hot hand.

Other QB’s I Love:

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins

RB: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Austin Ekeler is back and so is the production.  Ekeler saw an astounding 16 targets out of the backfield last week against Buffalo, he had a total of 25 touches in his first game back and should see similar production against the Patriots.  The Patriots will likely try and lock down Keenan Allen, which will force rookie Justin Herbert to go to his check down Ekeler.  

Jonathan Taylor was activated from the covid list right on time for a juicy matchup with the worst rush defense in the league the Houston Texans. Houston has given up 26 ppg to RBs this season and it should continue this week, as the Colts will look to keep the ball on the ground to manage the clock. Taylor should see a lot of touches this weekend.  His price is the best part at just $5.7K.

Other RB’s I Love:

David Montgomery, Chicago Bear

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (Duh)

WR: Keke Coutee, Houston Texans

WR: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams

WR: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Keke Coutee is just $3.5K.  Coutee was the only receiver other than the suspended Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks to get a snap count above 25% in their last game.  Coutee will be forced into a bigger role without Fuller as the Texans will likely be forced to throw more against the tough Colts. 

Robert Woods has had 27 targets in his last two games.  He did not miss a single snap last week against the Cardinals.  His potential volume at a price under $6,000 makes him a great option in a likely high scoring game. 

Davante Adams- I am a believer that if you start a QB, you should start their #1 target.  Adams is by far the #1 target in Green Bay.  We saw what DK Metcalf did last week to the Eagles, we should see similar production from Adams on Sunday. 

Other WR’s I Love: 

Michael Pittman Jr, Indianapolis Colts

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

TE: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

Robert Tonyan is way to cheap at $3.7K.  The Eagles will be forced to pay attention to multiple offensive threats which should leave Tonyan with multiple opportunities to hit value.  The return of Lazard has opened up a lot more freedom for Tonyan in the red zone.  He is a serious threat for a TD at a way to low cost. 

Flex: James White, New England Patriots

James White has returned to form over the last two weeks.  The injury to Rex Burkhead has opened up a lot of production for White, he has put up back to back weeks of 14+ points and has a good matchup with the Chargers on Sunday.  White shockingly rushed for two touchdowns last week, getting the red zone carries.  His real value comes from targets out of the backfield but by adding the threat of goal line carries he is way underpriced at just $5,000.  

Defense: Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks have found a pass rush since adding Carlos Dunlap and getting healthier in the secondary.  They get to face the Giants with Colt McCoy under center.