NCAA Basketball

Sweet 16 Picks: Part 4

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4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-5.5) vs. 8 Florida State Seminoles

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have not made this tournament easy for themselves. Twice letting half time leads evaporate quickly. The Zags overcame through strong play from most everyone, especially Josh Perkins, Zach Norvell, and Rui Hachimura, are now gathering the bulk of Final Four chatter after the rest of the bracket was decimated in the first weekend.

While the Zags got through the Big Ten regular season champion Ohio State Buckeyes most assumed they were set for a matchup with Big East regular season champion and region #1 seed Xavier. As this tournament has proved, seeds don’t mean anything.  Despite the Musketeers dominating a large portion of the game, they fell to a late surge from the Florida State Seminoles. The Seminoles’ pure size created issues for both Trevon Bluiett and Quentin Goodin on the offensive end for Xavier.  Florida State’s shocking win set us up with a rather interesting matchup.  Florida State’s high pace offensive strategy accompanied by their length on defense versus a high powered offensive Gonzaga team.

These two teams have very differing styles, while Florida State has multiple players that play a bulk of the minutes, Gonzaga has NBA level talent that they stick with for the larger portions of the game.  Determining a victor for this game is going to be about pace.  Florida State has to keep this game up tempo and not let Gonzaga utilize their advantage down low.  Killian Tillie and Jonathon Williams will attack the offensive glass all game, I can’t see Florida State being able to handle the power down low.

Florida State has shocked me after literally not showing up in the ACC tournament, they have turned it around defeating two teams that were highly regarded.  Problem is the Zags have more players to lean on then the Seminoles have dealt with.  Multiple scorers means multiple points.  I have the Zags winning but I won’t bet it.

 Gonzaga wins (Betting +5.5 for Florida State)

Sweet 16 Picks: Part 3

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5 Kentucky Wildcats(-6) vs. 9 Kansas St. Wildcats (-6)

The Wildcat region has its second Wildcat matchup of the region, just not the one we thought we would get.  Kentucky sits as the favorite remaining in the bracket,  a team full of freshman is now the favorites. While they sit as the favorites they can’t loo past a battle tested Big 12  Kansas State team.

Kansas State played the role of midnight on the Cinderella of the tournament UMBC thanks to a Bryce Brown and Xavier Sneed.  Leading scorer Dean Wade had to watch as his teammates pulled out a grinding victory over the upstart Retrievers. Kansas State’s perimeter defense will have to repeat its performance of the first round holding down a offensive heavy Creighton team.  The purple Wildcats will look to keep the more athletic Kentucky team out of the lane.  Their 20th ranked defense will have to play at that level, especially if All-Big12 Selection Dean Wade is still not able to play, Kansas State will be challenged on the offensive end.

The biggest individual reason for Kentucky’s surge has been the rise to prominence of freshman Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  SGA has been a swiss army knife for the young Kentucky squad  averaging 18 points 5 rebounds and 4 assists per game during their current win streak. The scary part about this Kentucky team is that he may not even be the best player on the floor, freshman Kevin Knox, a potential lottery pick still has the ability to take over a game at any point.

Kentucky opens this game as a 6 point favorite, with their current hot streak and the potential injury problem for Wade this number makes sense.  Wade has come out recently saying barring any setbacks he will play in the Sweet 16.  If Wade plays the entire game changes.  If he plays I see K-Sate covering the 6 points and even winning outright over a young Kentucky team that has limited range.

 Kansas State +6 (Lean Kentucky if Wade can’t play)

 

Sweet 16 Picks: Part 2

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7 Texas A&M vs 3 Michigan (-2.5)

Texas A&M was ranked as high as No. 5 in December after starting the season 11-1. A five-game losing streak ensued, a string of so-so play that A&M never really busted out of until the NCAA tournament. A&M brings a loaded frontcourt with Robert Williams and Tyler Davis but it has been the emergence of freshman point guard TJ Sparks that has provided the front court stability during the first two rounds.  Sparks was unstoppable in the Aggies second round matchup with the vaunted North Carolina Tarheels, gashing the heels for 21points and 5 assists. Texas A&M are a dangerous team with NBA level talent, they have spent a lot of the year playing inconsistently, their 9-9 record and first round departure in the SEC tournament shows they have vulnerabilities.

Michigan enters this game on a high after the miraculous shot from freshman Jordan Poole pushed them past a very game Houston Cougars team.  Michigan’s defense is elite, they are the best defensive team left in college basketball.  Teams have shot 34.5 percent, but they have yet to face a team that will be working from the inside out like Texas A & M. Charles Matthews has been a key guy thus far in the Big Dance for Michigan. The Kentucky transfer leads the team with a 15.5 scoring average. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman has been good on both ends, ranking No. 2 in scoring with an 11.5 average while playing good defense. Still, keep an eye on Matthews, who is hot and matches up well with the Aggies. With Michigan outmanned down low, wing players like Matthews need to excel. While I do believe Mathews will play a big role, keeping Moritz Wagner out of foul trouble will also be key for Michigan on the offensive end.

I have gone back and forth on this game.  Texas A&M has a future NBA starter in Robert Williams but their inconsistencies are tough to look past against a very strong Michigan defense. I also consider John Beilien to be one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball. Michigan will suffocate the Aggies guards all day and Robert Williams talent will be matched by Wagner’s skill.  Give me the Wolverines moving on and covering.  If the line moves up i would be cautious.

 Michigan -2.5

Sweet 16 picks: Part 1

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11 Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. 7 Nevada Wolfpack (-1.5)

Cinderella rules the South region of the NCAA tournament, where Loyola-Chicago will take on Nevada in a Sweet 16 matchup Thursday night in Atlanta.

The Ramblers and Sister Jean have stolen the hearts of the viewing public.  An under estimated, in my opinion and under seeded Rambler squad play grind it out team basketball.  They have multiple players that can beat you on any night.  Mo Valley player of the year Clayton Custer runs the offense to perfection, moving the ball to find the defenses weakness.  They have been supremely efficient in their first two games, shooting 47 percent vs a stout Miami defense and an even more astounding 50 percent against a battle tested Tennessee squad.

Nevada pulled off one of the most amazing comebacks in NCAA tournament history overcoming a 22 point deficit to defeat the Cincinnati Bearcats Sunday night. They had similar sharp shooting in their two games thus far defeated two solid defenses to get to this matchup.

Both teams have played at an elite level the first two round of this tournament, right now the line sits at a slight edge in favor of the Wolfpack.  I believe most money will be going with the Ramblers as we inch closer to the tip.  The Ramblers have not played a team with this kind of offensive firepower.  Cody and Caleb Martin will be a tough matchup, I look for Nevada to speed up the pace and take down the Ramblers.  Sorry Sister Jean it’s over.

 Nevada -1.5

Midwest Region: Champions Classic Region

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The Midwest Region will give us a matchup of blue blood teams.  Featuring three of the teams that participate in the Champions Classic at the beginning of the season.  Kansas, Duke and Michigan State will compete in a bracket that is clearly top heavy.  Matt Boeding and I looked at this region, we are ready to break it down!

First Round Upsets to watch: New Mexico State over Clemson, College of Charleston over Auburn, Kansas second round (Seriously)

Potential Bracket Buster: New Mexico State Aggies

Clemson had a great season, but they have been scuffling down the stretch, 3-5 in their last eight games. New Mexico State plays aggressive defense they are 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. New Mexico State has proven that they can hang with the power conferences this season. The Aggies upended Miami on Dec. 23 and fell by only five points to USC two days later. We saw recently in Clemson’s matchup with Virginia that they can be held in check on offense.  New Mexico State will bring it, Clemson will have to have a big performance from Gabe Davoe.  This will be our 12 over 5 upset.

Most Intriguing Potential Matchup: Duke Blue Devils vs The Fighting Trae Young’s

I am a believer that Oklahoma shouldn’t have made this tournament.  But they are in so who doesn’t want to see Trae Young vs, Marvin Bagley? Rhode Island might have a backcourt that can combine to rival Young’s offensive firepower. In Jared Terrell, the Rams have a first-team all-Atlantic 10 guard who can strain defenses by knocking down three-point shots, getting to the free-throw line and converting his attempts once there at a favorable rate. And at full strength, fellow senior E.C. Matthews gives Rhode Island another dangerous perimeter scorer. The Rams are going to have their hands full trying to contain Young, but Oklahoma also has to reckon with a big defensive challenge.  But when you have the dynamic talent of Trae Young you have to think that Young will overcome a Rhode Island team that we believe is a bit overrated.

Duke has had a problem with dominate guards for the last few seasons.Grayson Allen’s length will be an asset if Coach K decides to go man to man vs Oklahoma, but with Duke’s tendencies to switch on screens we may see a lot of Young vs Bagley which will be a problem for Marvin.  Duke should handle an Oklahoma team that is a one trick pony.  Still this game will be marketed through the roof.

Bracket Winner: Duke-Kansas

I know this isn’t a pick but we couldn’t agree on a winner of this bracket.  Kansas has looked dominate over the last few weeks.  There is no way the Jayhawks should have won the Big12 Tournament without Azubuike, but they did.  Devonte Graham is a true leader in college basketball, he can lead this team very far.

The problem I see with Kansas is Duke or Michigan State can be a tough matchup for them. The bigs will be dominate against KU.  Whether it is Bagley and Carter or Michigan States 20 different bigs they throw at you Kansas does not have the depth to handle the offensive skill sets.  I love a senior guard, I picked KU, Matt picked Duke.

 

 

 

South Region: The Wildcat Region

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The #1 overall seed, the #1 NBA prospect in the NCAA, the #1 team in the American Conference and the #1 team in the SEC (tied with Auburn in regular season).   The South region of the 2018 NCAA tournament has some real hard nosed competition.  I Talk Sports and That’s It contributor talked with me about the highlights of these region.  Let’s break it down!!

First Round Upsets to watch: Wright State over Tennessee, Loyola- Chicago over Miami

Potential Bracket Buster: Loyola- Chicago

Loyola-Chicago, champions of the Missouri Valley, come into the tournament with a lot of confidence. The Ramblers play a ball control and efficient style.  MO Valley player of the year Clayton Custer leads a team with multiple long range threats, while freshman Center Cameron Krutwig plays at a 5 star recruit level. Miami can sometimes have problems scoring, this matchup favors Loyola.  If they get by Miami , most likely Tennessee will be waiting, another matchup that can be favorable for the Ramblers.  Remember this team took down Florida this year, they are not afraid of the big boys.

Most Intriguing Potential Matchup: Kentucky vs Arizona

If the south plays out a we all hope a potential Wildcat matchup could be the highlight of the first week of action.  John Calipari seems to be pushing the right buttons of late for Kentucky as they impressively took care of business in the loaded SEC tournament.  Arizona has the scandals behind them, while also featuring the hottest player in the Country right now Deandre Ayton. The future lottery pick led his team through the PAC12 tournament without breaking a sweat.  NCAA fans coaches and multiple agents would really enjoy this matchup.  A game of great talent and great controversy, but damn it will be fun.  Keep your fingers crossed we get to see this.

Bracket Winner: Arizona Wildcats

The selection committee made it clear, if you are being investigated by the FBI we are going to make excuses why you don’t belong.  Arizona got a 4th seed,  most would argue that they really were more of a 2 or 3 seed.  Arizona, has the best player in the country and is loaded with talent at multiple positions.  Virginia is a great team but Arizona has so much size and athleticism, its is going to be tough to matchup.  Virginia will breeze into this matchup but they do not possess the scoring necessary to stick with Alonzo Trier and Deandre Ayton.  The PAC12 Champs toughest matchup will be Kentucky, but we believe Kentucky will be tested big time by Davidson.  Deandre Ayton will dominate this bracket.

 

 

 

 

ACC Tourney Day 1 Predictions

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The ACC Tournament begins today with three matchups that most people won’t give a second look to when passing it on their TV screens.  While the big boys of arguable the best conference in college basketball are waiting for their matchups to develop, we think there is not only some entertainment value today but also some betting value.  Let’s break it down.

12- Boston College (-3) vs. 13-Georgia Tech

This game stood out to me right away.  Two teams without much to play for.  Boston College opens as the early favorite in this one, gaining a point over night.  The fact is that while Boston College is the closer of the two teams to the bubble, neither will most likely make the tournament unless they win out.

My early lean was on Georgia Tech, the better defensive team, but as I dug deeper the numbers don’t seem to match my gut reaction. Boston College won the only matchup between the two teams in a game that took place in early February.  The three headed attacks of guards, Ky Bowman, Jordan Chatman and surprising leading ACC scorer Jerome Robison all put up 17+ points.  At 6-foot-6 Robison causes real mismatches for Georgia Tech, his ability to score as well as facility should allow the Eagles to score at will.

If Georgia Tech cannot make the stops needed on defense, they will be forced to rely on what was one of the worst offenses in the nation.  The Yellow Jackets are riding a modest two game win streak into this matchup, but I think the dynamic guard play of Jerome Robison and leadership of Ky Bowman is to much for Georgia Tech.

Boston College -3

10- Notre Dame (-17) vs. 15-Pittsburgh

There really isn’t much to say about this matchup.  Notre Dame is a dangerous team with Bonzie Colson back and Pittsburgh’s team and fanbase want to forget this season ever happened.

Pittsburgh has not won a game in the ACC, their is no reason to think they will win this one.  The Fighting Irish are favored by 17,  normally in an ACC game I would say that is to much but in this one I am taking it.

Notre Dame -17

11- Syracuse (-5) vs 14-Wake Forest

It’s March that means three things, the weather is getting better, day light savings time and Syracuse being on the bubble.  The Orange enter a matchup with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons today in a must win situation.

Syracuse’s main issue today will be containing sharp shooter Byrant Crawford. Crawford has lit up the Syracuse press in both meetings this year averaging 21.5PPG in the two previous meetings. If Wake Forest comes out firing in the first half the Orange will have to make an adjustment defensively.

Tyus Battle will have to carry the load offensively for the Orange as he did int he previus matchup with Wake Forest scoring 34 points.  Battle will must penetrate the Demon Deacon defense and make good decisions.  If Syracuse settles for 3-pointers they may find them selves in the NIT next week.

These two teams split the season series, both winning on their home courts. This tournament being in the Barclay’s Center should make it a pro-Syracuse crowd.  The Orange have a lot more to play for tonight an as we saw last night in the BYU vs. St. Mary’s game that can make a huge difference.

Syracuse -5

 

Time has come to Fire Paul Lusk

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In 2010-11 Missouri State University was able to win its first and only Missouri Valley Championship behind Cuonzo Martin’s leadership.  I was at JQH Arena storming the court as we took down the mighty Creighton Blue Jays and their star Doug McDermott on ESPN2.  The Bears fell short of making the NCAA tournament despite an RPI of 44, Martin was able to transition his success to a job at the University of Tennessee, then University of California, finally ending up at his current position as Head Coach of University of Missouri. With Martin gone, Missouri State hired Purdue Assistant Paul Lusk, at the time a hiring made sense as Lusk came from a similar coaching tree as Cuonzo Martin.  The results however have not been as favorable.

Paul Lusk entered the 2011-2012 season with lofty expectations as the Missouri Valley Player of the Year, Kyle Weems was returning for a senior season.  The team did not live up to expectations finishing a feeble 15-16, highlighted only by their victory over 21 ranked Creighton.  It was understandable that a first year head coach can have struggles out of the gate, but the struggles continued.  Entering the 2012-2013 season Lusk had begun to rebuild his team, a roster of six incoming freshman and one returning senior made the Bears the youngest team in the Missouri Valley Conference.  The Bears played like a young team, taking until December 30th to get their first Division 1 victory.

In Lusk’s third year at the helm, he lead the Bears to a 20-13 record and an invitation to the CIT (losing in the first round).  That highlighted Lusk’s coaching career as over the next three season the Bears finished middle of the pack in the Missouri Valley.

As Missouri State entered the 2017-2018 season hopes were high.  Missouri Valley’s last powerhouse team Wichita State had moved on to the American Conference, leaving the door open for the conference title.  The Bears entered the season as the preseason favorites, winning their first game against a strong Western Kentucky team, beginning the season 15-3 (3-0 MVC).  They then proceeded to take major steps in the wrong direction, finishing the season tied for 7th place.  This marked the first time in the history of the Missouri Valley Conference that the team picked to win the conference in the preseason finished any lower then 5th place.

Lusk’s inability to even live up to the most modest of expectations has to be the final straw at Missouri State.  Blessed with a roster that includes the only real NBA prospect in the Missouri Valley, forward Alize Johnson, he was unable to build around this superior athlete.  Lusk will enter the Missouri Valley tournament on Thursday against Valparaiso, if this is anything less then a blowout, it has to be the final straw.  As Missouri State continues to grow, exceeding previous years enrollment every year for the last three years, the sports programs have to grow with the university.  Missouri State has made a commitment to improving itself it is time to stop settling in it’s athletic programs.  Lusk’s time in Springfield has to come to an end unless he can make a miracle happen and get this team to play to it’s preseason expectations over a week in St. Louis.  Missouri State is not Mizzou, the alumni and the fans understand that but 7 years with a combined record of 88-106 shouldn’t be acceptable.  The time has come to fire Paul Lusk.