Feb 21 2018 Podcast: NBA second half predictions, Reaction to Hosmer and Martinez deals.
MLB
NL Central Outfield Rankings
The NL Central has been one of the most continuously active divisions in an offseason that has been mostly dull. As we begin spring training we have to decide which teams stand out from the rest in each category. We are going to begin with the outfield, additions and subtractions have set a few teams apart from the others. Let’s get to ranking!
5. Cincinnati Reds, 2017 combined WAR: 5
Projected Starters: Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Billy Hamilton
Fourth Outfielder: Jesse Winker
The Cincinnati Reds currently sit last in our rankings due mainly to the fact that they are unsure of the future os speedster Billy Hamilton. Jesse Winker proved that he is ready for the big leagues but with Hamilton still in the fold manager Bryan Price may be forced into a platoon situation.
Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler combined for 61 homeruns in 2017, both however showed that they can be boom or bust a large percentage of the time. Schebler and Duvall both hit just above .230BA and hovered around .301 OBP. While they have been tasked with driving in runs the lack of production from speedster Billy Hamilton left them with few options to drive in.
The Reds have a solid future to grow on in the outfield but right now it is full of unproven potential. Great American Ballpark will help them provide the power but outside of that and Duvall/ Hamilton’s solid defense, there is much to like about this outfield core.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates, 2017 Combined WAR: 3.3
Projected Starters: Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier
Fourth Outfielder: Jordan Luplow or Daniel Nava?
It wasn’t long ago that the Pittsburgh Pirates sat on top of this list. Andrew McCutchen claimed that they the best young outfield in the game. Now he sits in a San Francisco dugout wondering what could have been.
The Pirates still have two potentially dynamic players in Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, but with Polanco’s injury history and lack of true star production you have to question whether his ability will ever match expectations. Polanco still has never hit above .258 in three full major league seasons. Marte entered 2017 as the potential breakout star of baseball senior circuit, a gold glover with the ability to one day be a 30/30 man in the majors with a strong .350OBP. Sadly a early season steroid suspension put a hole in a season that looked to have big time promise. Marte has now taken on the role of team leader and star as he shifts to centerfield for 2018, can he pick up for the lose of McCutchen not only on the field but also the locker room?
The Pirates also have to determine whether Adam Frazier, infielder by trade, is the answer in left field. Frazier provides stability but pretty much no power for a team that will be looking to replace 28HR from its lineup. The Pirates just added veteran Daniel Nava to it’s roster to compete for the position but, let’s be honest, Daniel Nava is what he is and that is not a consistent MLB starter.
Rookie Austin Meadows is still developing, but as of right now, the Pirates have to options in the outfield and the rest is a coin flip. Marte and Polanco’s ability though allows them to stay ahead of the Reds for last place.
3. Chicago Cubs, 2017 Combined WAR: 5.4
Projected Starters: Jason Heyward, Albert Amora, Kyle Schwarber
Fourth Outfielder: Ian Happ
The Chicago Cubs have a lot of potential players that could spend a lot of time patrolling the outfield in the friendly confines. But I see Ben Zobrist as more of an infield option at second base. That leaves us with a few question marks with serious potential.
While I am sure the Cubs regret the amount of money spent on Jason Heward, they will never admit it because you still get the best defensive outfielder in baseball. While Heyward has been great defensively his offensive output has been subpar over the last two seasons and there is no reason to think it will improve.
Luckily for the Cubbies Albert Amora showed flashes of brilliance in 2017, defensively he has the talent to play center and he bat has begun to show signs of life, his .338OBP and .298BA lead all cubs outfielders in 2017, with another year of experience under his belt he can only improve.
Kyle Schwarber will be the greatest mystery of the bunch. While Schwarber supplies the power that fans and GM’s drool over, he has not developed as a complete hitter. Being sent down last season seemed to do him some good but the Cubs need an improvement from the .211BA. Schwarber’s limitations defensively will force Joe Maddon to sit him in big situations of games as well as limit his overall usage. Reports say that Schwarber has come into spring training in great shape, but does that really magically turn him into a viable outfielder?
Ian Happ is good, if the Cubs can find AB’s for him he will hit 30 homers, but who do they sit to make room?
2. Milwaukee Brewers, 2017 Combined WAR: 13.7
Projected Starters: Chritian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun
Fourth Outfielder: Domingo Santana
It’s hard to argue with the depth of the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers. The additions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain vaulted them right into the stratosphere of athletic/dynamic outfields.Yelich and Cain immediately provide upgrades in the lineup as well as defensively. The Biggest question about this new look outfield is who is what Ryan Braun is going to show up in 2018
Braun featured career lows in every statistical category in 2017 outside of his injury riddled 2013 season. Braun will have less pressure as the big names come into the fold but for the Brewers to overcome the arch rival Cubs they will need some form of the former MVP.
Another question that comes is what to do with Domingo Santana. Santana smashed 30 dingers for the Brew Crew in 2017 and now he has to relegated to a bench role. Finding holes in the Brewers outfield depth was tough but, Cain has only played two full seasons in the majors without any injury issues and Braun seems to be a shell of his former self. They are dynamic and talented but there are a lot of questions that still have no answers.
1. St. Louis Cardinals, 2017 Combined WAR: 14.3
Projected Starters: Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna
Fourth Outfielder: Jose Martinez
The Cardinals entered the 2017 offseason with a goal to add a power bat. They were successful and now Marcell Ozuna will play in the most talented outfield in the NL Central.
The biggest question about the Cardinals outfield is whether or not Tommy Pham’s monster season was a fluke or not. The fact is that Tommy Pham has his on every level in professional baseball. If not for his injury history then he would have been in the majors a long time ago.
Now you may ask, What if he does get hurt again? The Cardinals feature a stable of young talented outfielders ready to step in on a moments notice. Guys like Jose Martinez and Harrison Bader have come to the majors and made an impact.
The pickup of Ozuna gave the Cardinals the flexibility in the lineup and defensively, what gets lost in Ozuna’s gaudy power numbers is his defensive ability. The pickup of Ozuna allowed the Cardinals to move Pham to center and Fowler to right. Each of these players made MLB’s top 10 outfielders by position and they are set to dominate the league. The Cardinals have their flaws but the outfield is not one of them.
NL Central Chess Game- Yu Darvish
The NL Central has seen the most activity as a league during the 2018 off-season, Yu Darvish was just the latest move in a three way chess match for dominance.
The final memory of the 2017 MLB season was forgettable for Yu Darvish. Two starts in the fall classic ended with Darvish setting new career lows in innings pitched per start. But the Chicago Cubs remembered Darvish a little differently, 6.1 innings pitched allowing 1 run while striking out 7. Darvish helped end the cubbies season, now he looks to be the final piece for a potential championship.
Saturday, the Cubs inked the All-Star starter to a 6year $126million contract, taking the number 1 rated free agent pitcher off the market. The Cubs effectively addressed their biggest concern leading into the 2018 season. After several down seasons the Cubs utilized draft picks to build a strong core of position players which allowed them to make the moves necessary to fill a pitching staff with hired guns. The Cubs rank dead last in innings pitched by “home grown” talent since 2012. Darvish will take the spot of departing free agent Jake Arrieta, presumably finalizing the 2018 rotation. Darvish will join Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and fellow newcomer Tyler Chatwood, forming the most complete rotation in the top heavy NL Central.
While the Cubs had an available spot in the rotation, this can be looked at as a reaction to the moves made by fellow NL Centrals rivals. The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers made moves to bolster their offenses to catch up with the powerhouse NL Central Champs. The Cubs made the best counter move they could by bringing in Darvish. Questions still loom around the Cubs bullpen, can they replace All-World closer Wade Davis with Brandon Morrow or Steve Cishek? They also have to question the ability of long time ace Jon Lester, whom saw a nearly one run per game increase in ERA in 2017. Darvish will provide stability to the rotation, playing his first five season in the bigs in hitter friendly Ballpark in Arlington, Darvish should have no fear of fellow hitter friendly Wrigley Field.
The Cubs inability to build pitching has been the lone criticism of a team that has now made three straight playoff appearances as well as two straight NLCS appearance. But while the Cardinals and Brewers have to wait for young arms to develop, they Cubbies have been able to build a strong rotation that comes in immediately MLB ready. The length of the contact will also give GM Theo Epstein a chance to continue to build. If Lester is on his last leg and Kyle Hendricks comes back to the real world, Darvish will be able to fill in as the ace of a staff that will be competing for many years behind the great position player core.
While $126million sounds like a big number, in todays pitcher market Darvish comes in at a bargain price. The Cardinals and Brewers have just been put on notice. The Cubs have a grasp on the Central that they will not give up. With great free agents still on the market it is the Cardinals and Brewers move.
Feb 8: Suck it MLB free agents
February 8 2018: James Caldwell and Matt Boeding discuss MLB free agency, Superbowl rewind and Josh McDaniels Situation
Feb.1 Podcast: Get to know a Cubs fan.
February 1 2018: James Caldwell gives his top five NCAA Basketball teams right now, Special segment called: Get to know a Cubs fan, also the LOSER of the week: Doc Rivers
First Podcast of 2018!
January 22, 2018: NFC/AFC Championship breakdown, State of the NCAA Basketball and my thoughts on the Cardinals trade of Randall Grichuck, and why John Calipari is a huge LOSER
San Francisco (Giant)s Mistakes?
The San Francisco Giants decided to lit a flame to reignite the major league baseball hot stove by acquiring former National League MVP Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen joins Evan Longoria in a new look middle of the Giants lineup. The Giants have thrown down the gauntlet in potentially the most stacked division the Major League Baseball’s senior circuit. While the moves are attention grabbing, does it really put the giants in a place to contend?
McCutchen joins a lineup that has found it a struggle to find offense in the outfield. With the addition of the 5 time all-star the Giants will be able to move injury machine Hunter Pence into left field solving a problem that has plagued the team for years. The new problem moves to center field as normal Denard Span was part of the Longoria deal. Early projections show Gorkys Hernandez as the potential starting center fielder, the Giants could shock us all by potentially moving defensive gem Brandon Belt to the outfield and play Buster Posey over at first. Posey’s move to first is inevitable due to his growing concussions issues as well as the overall wear and tear of playing the position. A move of Belt to the outfield would shift the aging McCutchen to one of the biggest and funkiest center fields in Major League Baseball.
While the outfield has questions the Giants infield has could rival any team defensively. The acquisition of Even Longoria made a strength even stronger, the 2017 Gold Glover joins fellow 2017 Gold Glover Brandon Crawford and defensive standout Joe Panik. While the move for Longoria shocked most in the baseball world, it was justified when the Giants made the second move to pick up McCutchen. The Giants are telling their fanbase that they are all in for the 2018 season…at least they have forced themselves all in.
The Giants traded away their most promising prospect Christian Arroyo in order to pick up Longoria. While Longoria is still a viable player moving your top infield prospect to get him was questions by many baseball writers. Giants general manager Bobby Evans and executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean have addressed this, but to summarize, the Giants wanted to improve upon the production they received from third base last season. San Francisco’s third basemen finished last in the Majors in batting average (.216), OPS (.568), home runs (nine) and RBIs (51) in 2017. Despite Longoria’s dip in production in ’17, Giants management believes he has enough left to provide respectable offense for at least a couple of years. A couple of years may be all the Giants have left as their current farm system ranks in the bottom five and their is no one on the way. A team that has a lot of older players seems to not have a plan if those players breakdown.
The Giants are going to go into the 2018 season with a lot to be excited about. Their pitching staff will have a full year of Madison Bumgarner back , assuming he stays off the dirt bike. They have Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardjia, Mark Melancon, Sam Dyson, so many established major league players. The Giants just seemed to have forgotten that the Dodgers, D-Backs and Rockies are younger and better. The Giants won’t lose 98 games in 2018 but this team has not improved themselves enough to beat the teams in their own division. The will battle for a wild card spot but most likely be looking to unload some vets at the trade deadline. They showed the fanbase they are trying, but I think a rebuild would have made more sense.
But it is an even year.
Who Can Close? Cards Free Agent Options
The St. Louis Cardinals entered the offseason with a few glaring holes. The need that caught most fans attention is the lack of the middle of the order bat. Cardinals management took an obsessive approach in filling that hole, eventually landing slugger Marcel Ozuna from the Marlins. Cardinals fans have turned their complaints to a new place, the bullpen, more prominently the closer position. Relievers have become a commodity in the MLB garnering contracts that just a few years ago would have been laughable. If we assume that the Cardinals don’t use one of their current relievers as a closer what options are left on the open market?….and what will it cost?
With the biggest free agent reliever on the market signing 3year/52million dollar contract with the Colorado Rockies, many believe the market is set. What direction should the Cardinals go in? Let’s rank the options.
3. Tyler Clippard, 32, Career Saves 61
Tyler Clippard is coming off of arguably his worst season in the major leagues, most probably don’t even realize he was actually on the World Series Champion Astros roster at the close of the MLB season.
Clippard is not your prototypical closer, he doesn’t throw 100 every pitch he relies on deception, movement and a plus changeup in order to get outs. Clippard has performed well as a closer, 2012 with the Nationals Clippard posted 32 saves for a team that walked into the playoffs. While Clippard has not been able to repeat those numbers he does bring an intriguing element to his game, he is a fly ball pitchers. 50% of Clippard outs are recorded through the air. The Cardinals have one of the most athletic outfields in baseball entering the 2018 season. With the addition of gold glover Marcell Ozuna in the outfield and the further development of Tommy Pham to center field Clippard can have more confidence in pounding the strike zone. The spacious Busch Stadium outfield can also give Clippard the confidence to pound the strike zone.
While Clippard isn’t the sexy pick for closer, his veteran presence can be a nice stop gap to help young relievers like John Brebbia and Tyler Lyons develop more confidence to one day take the job.
2. Greg Holland, 32, Career Save 189
Greg Holland is going to be a closer somewhere in 2018. Holland established himself as a true star pitching in the confines of Coors Field finishing the season with an astounding 41 saves.
Holland’s negatives are the fact their is a health risk. Missing the entire 2016 season and parts of the 2017 really hurt Holland’s value leading into 2018 free agency. His experience and ability are unquestionable, but the injury risk and high cost that Holland will command may turn off the Cardinals. Their is also the lingering question of why Holland’s former team would decide to shell out the money to Wade Davis when they have the connection to Holland.
Statistics are always in Hollands favor but the fact that he sits atop of the current available reliever pull could demand multiple years and a lot of money. While the Cardinals have stated that money is not a problem a projected $15million a year for a guy with a recent injury history could be to much of a gamble for an organization that tends to be cautious in these situations.
1. Addison Reed, 28, Career Saves 125
Addison Reed entered the 2018 free agent market as an after thought as his Reed role changed mid-way through the season after being dealt to the Boston Red Sox. Before he was Craig Kimbrel’s setup man, Addison Reed was recording saves for a pretty pathetic Mets team. One of the best things about Reed is his low walk rate. His career walk rate is 2.3 per nine innings, and over the last two years it’s even better, 1.6 per nine innings, to go along with a 9.8 per nine strikeout rate. His WHIP of 0.996 over the last two seasons (total of 153⅔ innings over 157 appearances) is outstanding.
Reed will enter 2018 in his age 28 season with very little recent injury history. A pitcher in his prime playing for a contending team is the right mixture to equal success for the Cardinals and Addison Reed. The Cardinals can get a quality reliever that is ready to close now for $8million per season. Picking up Reed could be the move that solidifies the Redbirds bullpen for years to come at an extremely affordable rate.
Honorable Mention:
Huston Street: Career Saves 304
Too old and to Injury prone. Worth a look if its cheap.
World Series 2017 Preview
The Los Angeles Dodger and the Houston Astros are set to meet in what can be called the World Series of Sabermetrics. Two teams that were built around sabermetric strategy will meet in what should be an entertaining and exciting series.
Reasons why the Astros win.
Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander has not only been the most dominant pitcher in baseball since his trade, he has us reminiscing about the MVP Justin Verlander that took the world by storm in 2011. He has taken control of this team and with his leadership guys like Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers have shown not only great pitching ability but an intensity that is infectious to the team while they are on the mound.
Vets stepping up
Brian McCann and Evan Gattis came through in game 7. Verlander has become a leader on the mound. Carlos Beltran sits waiting for his opportunity to strike. The Astros are looked at as this young team built over years of depressing seasons but that isn’t the case. They have a solid core of veteran players that are looking for rings and they will do anything and everything to do it. At 27 years old Jose Altuve has developed into a team leader. He reminds me of Dustin Pedroia in 2011, he entered his 4th full season with the Red Sox and had developed in a vocal leader that also took care of business on the field. With Altuve’s leadership and a strong core of vets around him, this could be the year that the Astros win that first championship.
Reasons why Dodgers win.
Depth
Most managers in Major League Baseball have plans going into a game on what or who they are going to have to stop in order to be victorious. With the Dodgers you don’t have that luxury. Whether it is Austin Barnes, Kiki Hernandez, Charlie Culberson, or Justin Turner, you don’t know who is going to beat you on a given night. Dave Roberts, who was the ultimate bench player during his career seems to have the ability to know who has going to be on or not. The inability of an opposing manager to make a game plan can cause mistakes and any mistake in the World Series can mean the end of your run.
Pitching
The Astros may have the hottest starter in baseball right now with with Justin Verlander but the Dodgers sport maybe the most imposing pitching staff in the MLB. With four quality starters and a bullpen that can be trusted as soon as the 6th inning, Dave Roberts will be able to be comfortable in any situation to make a move and with Kenta Maeda looking lights out so far out of the bullpen Roberts can have the added depth that he needs to eat up innings and not over use guys like Kenley Janson and Brandon Morrow. Some pitching is good, but when you have more pitching it is always better.
Prediction
This is going to be a fun World Series. With exciting young players and veterans that are looking for their first ring, this world series will be full of intensity and emotion. Every fiber in my being is saying that the Astros have to much starting lineup power. They have more then one guy that can hit the long ball and a red hot started. Not to mention the most likely AL MVP. I want to see Carlos Beltran win his first ring. But it won’t happen this year. Dodgers pitching and Dave Roberts decision making will be to much for the Astros to overcome. AJ Hinch has a serious lack of confidence in his bullpen and that will cost him games.
I Talk Sports and That's It 