MLB

I Talk Sports DFS Picks Aug. 2nd (Night Slate)

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With a nine game slate upon us in DFS I wanted to pass along my plays for tonight August 2nd 2018. All prices based on Draft Kings.

Pitcher- Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves ($10,500)

Most people will be drawn to known aces Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.  But with matchups against much better offenses I wanted to go with a much lesser known All-Star pitcher.  Mike Foltynewicz has established himself at the top of the rotation starter.  Playing in New York against a team that has been underwhelming to say the least should give Foltynewicz a better matchup to get him on track post All Star break.

In two post All Star break starts thus far Foltynewicz has struggled playing much higher level offenses of the Nationals and the Dodgers.  Mike’s last start against a much more inspired Mets team on June 12th he was able to score 21.5 DK points.  While you are paying a steep price at $10,500 I believe you will see a big upside and can save yourself over $1,000 when compared to the two previously mentioned aces.

SS/3B- Tim Beckham, Baltimore Orioles ($3,800)

Former prized draft pick Tim Beckham recently made a list of top 20 draft busts over the last ten years.  With star Manny Machado in LA Beckham will see an increased role with the Orioles and I believe increased production.  This Orioles/Rangers game looks and feels very stackable. Beckham stands out to me due to his mid-level cost and power/speed potential. Beckham’s is 3/4 in his career versus Yovanni Gallardo, while that is a small sample size I really like the exit velocity of 95.8MPH in those at bats.  Not only did he hit Yovanni, those balls were destroyed.

SS/3B- Johan Carmago, Atlanta Braves ($4,100)

Carmago has been a big part of my DFS lineups this year, especially against lefties.  The Braves showed that they are committed to Carmago at third base for the rest of the season by not making a move at the trade deadline.  The matchup tonight vs Jason Vargas intrigues me.  Carmago has shown great power against lefties slugging a ridiculous 200 points higher as a right handed batter.  Vargas has also been a dumpster fire the entire season, there is no reason to think that is going to change.  With Draftkings prices as high as they are playing a guy with major power upside and a low price is a need.

OF- Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers ($4,900)

The resurrection of Shin-Soo Choo is in full force in 2018, until the last 15 games.  A matchup with Andrew Cashner is always a way to break a slump . Choo hits 60 points higher against righties as well as 15 point higher at home.  Choo will have his chances during this game projecting to bat second.  This game will be one that many pick on with the highest projected run total on the slate.  I expected Choo to be a cornerstone in my lineup.  I see a potential home run from him tonight.

1B- Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays ($4,100)

First base has its obvious choices.  Paul Goldschmidt should be popular tonight, Joey Votto actually has some great career numbers versus Max Scherzer, Justin Bour versus a struggling Nick Pivetta is also intriguing.  I am looking at Justin Smoak against the pitcher formally known as King Felix.  Smoak is 6 for 10 in his career against Felix with a 95.2MPH exit velocity. He hits Felix very hard and consistently. Even though Smoak has not had the season he had in 2017 he has still been consistent with his power holding a season long ISO of .223.

Smoak’s price tag will allow you to make moves on some of the beast of the night like Mookie Betts and JD Martinez.

Stacks

Rangers

Braves

Secondary Pitchers

Mike Montgomery- Cubs

Felix Hernandez- Mariners

 

 

 

 

MLB Trade Deadline

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Best

Dodgers- Manny Machado, Brian Dozier

With Corey Seager out for the season the Dodgers needed to find a replacement at shortstop.  Playing Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are better utilized in a play anywhere and everywhere role. Adding Manny Machado gave them a player with huge upside, while his defense is suspect he right away can be placed in the middle of the Dodgers order making an impact.  With the Diamondbacks hot on their heels in the National League West it was fair to assume that the Dodgers brass didn’t want to rely on the bats on Max Muncy and rejuvenated Matt Kemp.

The Dodgers also added more depth to their middle infield adding veteran second baseman Brian Dozier.  Dozier, whose name has come up around the deadline for what seems like the last century will finally be placed on a team that is ready and willing to do what it takes to compete for a championship.

Yankees- J.A. Happ, Zach Britton, Lance Lynn, Luke Voit

The New York Yankees had a few holes to fill going into the trade deadline.  Starting pitching was the biggest need.  They filled it without giving up their top tier prospects.  While J.A. Happ doesn’t have the sexy stats you may want to see in New York he does bring a valuable asset.  He can beat the Red Sox. Since 2015, Happ, a 35-year-old lefty, has one of the lowest ERAs at 1.78 among starters vs. the Red Sox. This season alone in two starts vs. the Red Sox Happ has allowed only one run in 10 2/3 innings pitched.  The Yankees were also able to add a veteran starter Lance Lynn who can eat up innings down the stretch allowing your dominate bullpen to get rest during the dog days of August.

The under publicized move to add Luke Voit can end up being an impact for the Yankees.  With the injury to Aaron Judge the Yankees will have a small void to fill for a few weeks.  Voit allows the Yankees to place power back in their lineup.  Will he be Aaron Judge? No that’s not fair but he can supply a right handed bat to platoon at DH and 1st base for the time being.  Oh… Zach Britton also joins a bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Delin Betances.  That’s not to shabby.

Worst

Astros- Roberto Osuna

I am not a believer in getting involved in the personal issues of professional athletes, this one is hard to ignore.  Roberto Osuna is an extremely talented reliever with huge upside now and in the future but this seems like a buy low move from an organization that has openly stated they have zero tolerance against domestic abuse.  Osuna makes them stronger on the field but has a chance to cause some issues in the locker room.  Team leader Justin Verlander has already openly made a statement against the move which right away could cause a rift between new teammates.  I understand Osuna’s talent and every person should have a second chance in life if they truly regret what they have done but this move I cannot agree with.  The Astros are a classy organization with respectable players.  If any team can handle some controversy then it would be this team, but why bring it??

Mariners- Zach Duke, Sam Tuivailala, Adam Warren

Jerry Dipoto loves to make trades.  In fact a strongly believe that during his time off he plays fantasy mode on MLB the Show just so he can make more trades.  He reminds me of the guy in your fantasy football league that will offer you a trade every week that makes no sense for you or him.  He just can’t help himself.  When evaluating his moves I focused more on the actual moves made closer to the deadline.  The pickup of Denard Span and Alex Colome were very good but a little early for our rating system. Adding three arms to the bullpen was a sound strategy for a team looking to make a run right now, but it doesn’t really get you over the hump against the beasts of the east.  Juan Nicasio’s offseason signing has turned out to be a bust as he currently sits with an ERA way to close to six but Sam Tuivailala and Adam Warren are not two guys that are battle tested enough to fill in that need.  Zach Duke has been a consistent performer in his major league career but are you really going to trust him in the middle innings of a playoff game to get a big out….nope.  These moves have make the playoffs all over them but the Mariners were likely to do that anyway.  They don’t put them any closer to the World Series.

 

Surprising-

Brewers- Mike Moustakas, Jonathon Schoop

I am trying to understand the moves that the Brewers made during the deadline and I have come up with this…they are going to try and out slug everyone.  Continually their starting pitching has been questioned.  After the injury to Brent Suter all eyes were watching for what potential starting pitcher was going to be headed to Milwaukee.  Instead they added two players that bring the boom stick with them.  Adding Schoop and Moose to a lineup that already features one of the best home run hitters in the league, Jesus Aguilar, makes their lineup up one of the most vicious the NL has seen in years. I guess who needs starting pitching when you can potentially put up 12 runs a game.

Pirates- Chris Archer, Keone Kela

No much was expected of the 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates.  An offseason of change saw veteran franchise faces Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole moved in what seemed like the beginning of a rebuild in the steel city.  Sitting 3.5 games back in the NL Wildcard race and seeing their young stars emerge into the roles they had envisioned has inspired the front office to make moves that are not only bold but uncharacteristic of the organization. Picking up Keone Kela to match up with All- Star Felipe Vasquez as already a noteworthy move.  Then out of nowhere the blockbuster deal getting long time Ace Chris Archer from the Rays caught the entire league off guard.  The Pirates have decided they are very close to being a true contender for years to come and they proved it today.

 

Final thoughts

St. Louis needed to go young in the outfield.  Welcome to the majors Tyler O’Neil.

Tampa Bay may have the craftiest front office in all of baseball.  Austin Meadows can hit.

Braves bullpen got much better.  O’Day and Brach are going to help them win the East.

Poor Nationals

 

 

Time to sell. Is that a bad thing?

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The Cardinals stepped into the second half taking a glass is half full approach.  By moving on from Mike Matheny all their problems would magically dissapear.  The bullpen would pitch better, Ozuna and Fowler would start hitting, the defense would play error free.  After just six games they realized that not only was the glass half empty but it has been thrown to the ground and shattered.

Sitting five games back in the Wild Card is an illusion of potential for a team that has lost its way.  While they only sit five games back they have to jump two teams in their own division just to make case for the second spot. It is time to open their eyes and see that this is a team that has to find a new direction.  I wrote a piece earlier in the month talking about the potential of trading “ace” Carlos Martinez in hopes to have a return that can set them up for future success.  While it is unlikely that they move on from Martinez they have to see that it is time move the pieces that are not going to be a part of the future.   Players like Jedd Gyroko, Jose Martinez, Kolten Wong,  Tommy Pham and Bud Norris have to be put on the trade block.  Each one of these players have friendly contracts and assets that can intrigue true contending teams.

Players like Jedd, Jose and Kolten may not bring you high valued prospects in return, but  they can allow the team to open up spots for young talent. Players that are ready in the minors like Patrick Wisdom and Tyler O’Neil need to be called up and put into bench roles while Yairo Munoz and Harrison Bader should be given the chance to play everyday to see what they can bring to the table on a day to day basis.  The players that can bring you the most value on the market like Bud Norris and Tommy Pham should be moved in order to restock your system with top 15 potential players.

So why not move your hottest hitter Matt Carpenter or your bad contract Dexter Fowler or your “big” offseason pickup Marcell Ozuna?

Carpenter is the player you have to build around, moving him full time to first base is your best option and can bring you stability to work around for your infield.

Fowler’s contract will most surely be impossible to move.  The reality is that you have to put him on the bench and try and find a suitor in the offseason that will help you take on some of his salary (Very Unlikely).

Ozuna is injured.  He has little to no value at the moment unless you want to sell low.  Shut him down and let him go fix his shoulder injury.  If you would like to move him next season before he becomes a free agent then look into it then.  He has to much potential as a great trade piece when he is fully healthy.

It’s hard for a front office to admit that the season is a bust.  I am not admitting that it is a bust yet, but what the organization is putting on the field is not one that can make it to the playoffs let alone compete in an extremely competitive 2018 National League Central.  Let the young kids come up and see what kind of impact they bring.  Being a seller at the deadline does not admit defeat it can show a better understanding of your personal.  This team needs a change, they need fresh faces beyond Mike Shildt.  Let the young guys play and see if it can turn things around.  Use Poncdeleon, Gomber and eventually Dakota Hudson in the bullpen if their is not a spot in the rotation.  Let Bader get as many at bats as he can and see if he changes your team dynamic.  Cardinals fans may not like the idea of “selling” but they will have to understand that sometimes selling just means admitting your mistakes.   Everyone can accept that.

Trading Carlos?

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When Mike Matheny was finally let go by the St. Louis Cardinals a large portion of the fanbase rejoiced.  Matheny the subject of  ridicule since his hire has left Cardinal Nation with a gleaming light of hope at the end of the longest mediocrity tunnel this era has seen.  Now that he is gone it is time for the Cardinals to look to the future, as they rebuild the culture and the team they have to figure out who they should take a long for the ride.  Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak have to look at this roster and figure out who they want to be a part of the next ERA of Cardinals baseball.  Is Carlos Martinez a part of those plans?

Let’s look at the positives of Carlos Martinez.  At the end of the 2018 season Carlos will be 27 years old,  he will have a contract that is team friendly based on the price of quality starting pitchers.  Earning just $11.5 Million per year over the next three seasons he will not hurt your budget.  Carlos currently ranks 33rd in the league in starting pitcher salary per season behind guys like James Shields, Tyler Chatwood and our old St. Louis friends Lance Lynn and Mike Leake.

Carlos has been great for three straight season propelling himself to the top of the rotation accumulating 43 wins and averaging 30 starts per year during that span.  He proudly represented the Cardinals in two All- Star games, 2015 and 2017.  Despite some minor injuries Carlos has stayed healthy enough to keep his spot at the top of the rotation.  While other such as Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have broken down, Carlos seems to come back from injuries strong and capable.   Outside of a handful of pitchers in the league he would be an ace on most staffs.

Now let’s look at the negatives. Carlos has been known to be an emotional player,  during the stress of a playoff run and/or series he has been known to get a little flustered.  The veteran presence of Yadier Molina has been able to hide some of those issues.  Martinez can be wild at times his BB/9 has reached a career high so far in 2018 at 4.67.

While erratic at times Carlos will still find himself on the list of top potential targets of any team if made available.  With the firing of Matheny, Cardinals management has made it clear that they are not afraid to shake things up.  While moving Martinez may be looked at as giving up on the 2018 season, would he not bring back the most of any player on your current roster?

Imagine you are the Yankees, stacked with a loaded farm system and the Cardinals have made this great cost controlled pitcher available.  How can you not offer up some of your top prospects to get him. As a Cardinals fan can you really be that upset if you move on from Carlos, when you have seen the strength of your developing pitchers.

Cardinals get: Gleyber Torres,  Domingo German, Dermis Garcia

Yankees get: Carlos Martinez, Jedd Gyorko

While this is obviously hypothetical, I cannot see any way as an organization you cannot at least open up the negotiation.  The Cardinals have been looking for a dynamic position player to take the reigns of the team since the departure of Albert Pujols. Moving on from Carlos Martinez will have backlash,  while he is great on the field he is also a charismatic personality that people are enthralled in seeing. The Cardinals will have a better idea of where they are right out of the All- Star break heading to Chicago for 5 games that can make or break your season.  At that point they have to decide whether Martinez is the future himself or is the key to bringing in the future.

 

Who is Trae Santos?

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The Frontier League Homerun Derby took place at Carshield Field in O’Fallon, Missouri this week.  Fans filled the stadium for a chance to see former Cardinals greats compete with Frontier League All-Stars in matchup of local favorites vs. unknown up and comers.  Former Cardinals Mark Whiten, Ray Lankford, Kerry Robinson and Rick Ankiel were set to put on a show for the thousands in attendance. To their surprise they were upstaged by a little known first baseman playing just across the river for the Gateway Grizzlies.  His name was Trae Santos.

Trae Santos put on a show from the first pitch launching mammoth homers over the giant right field wall at Carshield Field.  Santos ran through the Frontier League competitors smashing 22 homers in the first two rounds, setting up a matchup with former Cardinal P/OF Rick Ankiel.  Santos dispatched of Ankiel rather quickly beating his 3 homers in just a few swings.  Fans that had come to see the former Cardinals greats swing left wondering who was this power hitting machine manning first for the Grizzlies.  Who was Trae Santos?

In 2005, star pitcher and first baseman Trae Santos led the Guam Little League team all the way to the semifinals of the Little League World Series in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. With that success, the Santos family made a momentous decision. They decided to move their family to America where Trae began to make his mark the baseball community. Drafted in the 17th round of the 2013 MLB draft by the San Diego Padres out of Troy University.  Playing 4 seasons in affiliated ball Santos had trouble standing out.  Hitting his peak during the 2015 season, Santos hit 14 homers and drove in 60 runs for the Fort Wayne Tincaps of the Midwest League. Unable to improve on those numbers the Padres released Santos after the 2016 season, leaving Trae at a crossroads in his career.

“The phones weren’t really ringing last year.  I just kept working on my swing and hitting the gym everyday. Waiting for that opportunity.” said Santos when asked about taking the 2017 season off.

Manager Phil Warren gave Trae a call with an invite to tryout for the Gateway Grizzlies.  With the departure of long time first baseman Craig Massoni their was an opening on the Gateway roster.   Looking for pop in the middle of the order Santos seemed to fit right into the needs of the team.  Beating out Kristian Brito for the starting first baseman spot, Santos jumped right into the middle of the Gateway lineup.  Santos came out the gates struggling in 2018.  Showing signs of rust from the year off of competitive baseball.  After a few weeks into the season Santo was hitting well below .200.  Phil Warren refused to give up on the young slugger.

“I sat Trae down and told him to stop putting so much pressure on himself.  These guys are out here trying to get you out.  Stop worrying so much and just do what you know you can do.” said Warren.

The brief conversation paid off huge for Santos as he was able to turn things around almost immediately.   Hitting .288 with 11HRS, 34RBI’s, earning himself a slot in the Frontier League All-Star game his comeback was complete.

Santos has had a roller coaster career so far in baseball.  Right now he is heading towards the top of the coaster in hopes that there will not be the long drop this time.  At the age of 25 getting a call back to affiliated ball will be a long shot.  But the statement he made during the Homerun Derby will live on in the history of the Frontier League.  Maybe Santos will not be the second player ever to make it to the Majors but he will go down in the Frontier League history books along with the creation of the Baseball’s Best Burger and Brett Gray’s 25 strikeout night.

Come see Trae Santos lead the Gateway Grizzlies in the second half of the season beginning July 14th vs. the River City Rascals.

All Star Snubs, Who they should replace.

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All Star games are for the fans first and foremost.  Most of the time the fans make a wrong choice here and there to get a fan favorite in the game…Bryce Harper.  For the mot part the fans got the teams right.  Still there are times where even with the help of the coaches, players and fans the choice are wrong.  Let’s dive into the five biggest mistakes.

Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins.  Should replace: Michael Brantley

Eddie Rosario has struggled over the last few weeks when compared to the start of the season.  Still he owns nearly every statistical advantage over Indians left fielder Michael Brantley.

Brantley, 11HR, 49RBI, .306/.351/.490

Rosario, 18HR, 53RBI, .301/.342/.536

Brantley has the luxury of playing along side stars like Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion.  He has protection all around him as well as many more chances to knock in runs on a team that is loaded with talent.  Rosario features a lineup with the minimal protection.  Currently hitting in front of career utility man Eduardo Escobar has made him target for pitching around.  I get that the Indians are a superior team, but rewarding their 4th best position player with a spot on the All Star team seems a bit ridiculous.

Blake Snell, P, Tampa Bay Rays.  Should Replace: Joe Jimenez

Blake Snell could be he best pitcher in the entire American League…right now.  Snell owns the American Leagues best ERA (2.09) as well as an impressive 12-4 record.    Despite his ideal numbers Snell has fallen victim to another player on his teams success.  With his catcher Wilson Ramos making the team it seemed as if it was decided that the Rays are only allowed one representative. Snell should not only consider this a snub, he should be asking why he isn’t starting the All Star game.

This injustice continues when you see a guy like Joe Jimenez on the roster.  The Tigers are a sinking ship that will be looking to unload every last bit of extra cargo at the trade deadline.  I have never been a proponent of every team should have an all star, but if you are going to have one, make sure they chose the right all star.  Joe Jimenez has had a fine season but a reliever with a solid but not overly impressive 2.45ERA should not be in the All Star game.

Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinal. Should replace: Buster Posey

Buster Posey is a future Hall of Famer.  He is a former MVP, no doubt he deserves a shot at the All Star game.  This year he should have fell short of that honor.  It has nothing to do with Posey’s abilities as a player.  This is all about the offensive output of the multi time Gold Glover Yadier Molina.  Despite missing time with an injury I choose not to speak of, Yadire Molina has put on one of his best offensive seasons in his storied career.

Molina’s 13HR 38RBI and .495Slug are all on pace to be career highs for the Cardinals backstop.  Molina’s responsibilities with a young pitching staff has made them one of the most effective staffs in years despite dealing with a flurry of injuries, including to mainstays like Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright and ace Carlos Martinez.  When you are dealing with two great players the debate can go on for a long time, this one I can live with.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers. Should replace: Joey Votto

Reputation clearly matters, and before this season the Milwaukee first baseman didn’t have much of one. Aguilar is a destructive force in the middle of a first place lineup. 22 home runs and 63 RBI, and his 1.001 OPS is tops in the NL overall.  Yet he is hoping on the fans to vote him in on the last ballot.

Joey Votto is a great player with a great background.  He is one of the best players in the National League over the last five seasons, but the Reds have representatives at two different places on the infield, Votto should have not even been in the conversation of being an All Star.  It’s debatable whether he should be in over any other first baseman in the NL Central.

Hopefully the fans make the right decision and vote him in.  This selection should never have made it to this.  Shame on the MLB.

 

Paul DeJong, changing Cardinals needs

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The St. Louis Cardinals currently sit four games out of the Central Division.  A team riding the proverbial roller coaster all season has kept themselves relevant despite having to make adjustments to the lineup all season.  The early struggles of lineup mainstays like Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter had fans voicing their displeasure with management.  They shouted from the rooftops about trading away the young arms for a rental slugger like Manny Machado or Josh Donaldson.  As the Cardinals prepare to enter July they may end up receiving a power upgrade that will cost them no prospects.

Paul DeJong has targeted a return to the lineup around the All-Star break.  DeJong will instantly bring more power into a lineup that has begun to produce at more levels.  DeJong’s development as a hitter cannot be ignored.  While strikeouts are still a problem that is impossible to ignore, DeJong has increased his walk rate.  Through 108 games last season DeJong walked just 21 times. Before his injury in just 41 games he has walked 16 times raising his walk percentage by almost 5%. DeJong’s injury also allowed more at bats for Yairo Munoz, allowing him to establish himself as a major league player.

When comparing DeJong to both Machado and Donaldsons advanced analytics the differences are not what you may think. Donaldson’s numbers are nearly identical to DeJong, while  Manny Machado’s are not earth shattering in comparison, in fact they are very comparable if played out over a full season of the season.

Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 12.12.48 PM

Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 11.53.21 AM

Machado Advanced Stats

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DeJong Advanced Stats

Machado’s advanced numbers with nearly double the at bats compare favorably to DeJong’s with no clear advantage.  Machado brings with him the intrigue of a marquee name, but does not bring the clear offensive advantages. The Cardinals also do not have to deal with the distraction of what to do with Machado at the end of the season.  They can focus on their current needs.

That brings me to what the Cardinals need to have their focus on, the bullpen.  Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks have cemented themselves in the backend of the pen but the need for help is still relevant. Padres closer Brad Hand sits at the top of the list for most contending teams, the price for him will be very high for the Cardinals.  They will most likely look at the second left handed reliever option Zach Britton.  Britton’s 2018 has not been great but he brings late inning experience as well as experience against high level opponents while playing in the American League East.

If the Orioles are being stubborn about the value of Britton, the Cardinals should take a look at a guy they let walk away in the offseason, Zack Duke.  The Minnesota Twins have not been able to put it together in 2018, they have a few assets on their roster that may be available when the trade deadline hits.  Duke has been extremely effective versus lefties in during the 2018 season allowing just a .184 average.  While it may seem crazy to “backtrack” on a reliever that they could have resigned in the offseason, Duke will be low cost both in trade value and contact cost.

If the Twins believe they are still in contention for some reason the next potential suitor would be Alex Claudio of the Texas Rangers.  The Rangers have a long rebuild ahead of them, a left-handed reliever will not help them long term.  Claudio has tons of value with his abilities to get out left handed hitters, similarly to Britton, Claudio has the experience in the late innings.

Cardinals fans want management to make a big move, but they have to understand that they have an impact player ready to make his return without costing the team any of their prospects.  Fill the needs that make sense, go out and get yourself the bullpen help that can cement you as a playoff team.  Fans have to see that it makes more sense to fill the bullpen need rather then bank on a big name for half a season.

 

 

A “Rockie” bullpen

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The Colorado Rockies found themselves in the National League Wild Card game in 2017, losing to the Diamondbacks.  The players looked at the season as a huge step forward for a young club.  With young starters like Jon Gray, Chad Bettis and Tyler Anderson carrying the load of the rotation as well as a offense packed with talent the Rockies had a clear hole to fill in the back end of the bullpen.  They needed depth and a new closer, enter Wade Davis.  Davis and Colorado agreed to a three-year, $52 million contract. The deal included a four-year vesting option that could take the total value up to $66 million if he finishes 30 or more games in the 2020 season.  The former Royal and Cub signed a historic contract pundits of the deal called it a classic “Coors overpay”.  Fans of the contract saw the final piece of a potential championship puzzle.

Davis joined free agent signee former Indian Bryan Shaw (3year, $27million) and the resigning of Jake McGee (3year, $27million). Along with the rebranded and dominating Adam Ottavino the Rockies thought they had shaped a bullpen that would be able to handle the pressures of Coors Field.  Unfortunately for Colorado their bullpen has been more rocky then the mountains they were named after.

If you exclude Ottavino the other top five Rockies bullpen arms based on usage:

Bryan Shaw 39 games, 7.08ERA, -1.5 WAR

Jake McGee 30 games, 5.40ERA, -0.1 WAR

Chris Rusin 23 games, 7.45ERA, -0.6 WAR

Mike Dunn  23 games, 9.00ERA, -0.5 WAR

Wade Davis 30 games, 4.55ERA, 0.3 WAR

Five players making a combined $130 million in contracted salary have combined to make the worst bullpen in the entire league with a combined ERA of 5.75.  Davis leads the league in blown saves followed directly behind him is Bryan Shaw, both have 4 blown saves for a team that is still looking to fight their way into a playoff spot.  Davis has also been uncharacteristically wild during the first two months of the season, sporting a 33.6 percent Zone% that is the second-lowest among qualified relievers.

The Rockies cannot blame the entirety of their troubles on their bullpen.  The starting rotation hasn’t been top level and the offense has been nearly non-existent at times during the season.  The Dodgers have had early season struggles and the Diamondbacks have been falling off from their red hot start.  The Rockies are still in the mix for the National League West despite being four games under .500. Colorado will need a drastic turn around from their bullpen to have a chance to make up ground with in the division.

The Nationals made the first move to improve themselves before the All-Star break acquiring Royals Closer Kelvin Herrara.  With some much money locked up in their current relievers its seems unlikely the Rockies will be able to go outside the organization for help.  They will have to rely on their players to overcome their problems.  There is hope despite recent struggles Wade Davis has had his moments including 18-20 saves before June as well as holding hitters to a .274 Xwoba at dreaded Coors field.  Adam Ottovino has established himself as a dominate reliever.  Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee are not young players, you would have to believe that they will find a way to figure out what is going wrong.

The NL West has done one of the worst things they can possibly do, allow a team that has underperforming talent stick around.  If the Rockies find a way to fix their bullpen they will leave their mark on the National League soon.

 

 

Eddie Rosario- The star we don’t talk about

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In 2017 the Minnesota Twins would have been the best story in baseball if they had not been overshadowed by the brilliant run by the world champion Houston Astros.  The Twins made a huge step forward finishing second in the Central, finding themselves in the American League Wild Card game.  Minnesota fell short against the powerhouse Yankees but the statement was made, they have arrived on the scene and are ready to make the next step.  The baseball world has begun to see the Twins but they have yet to notice their developing star Eddie Rosario.

Rosario burst onto the scene in 2015 for the Twins hitting 13HR, stealing 11 bases  and hitting an astounding 15 triples.  Rosario finished 6th in the rookie of the year voting.  Rosario struggled to stay healthy in 2016 playing just 92 games. Without their young star the Twins suffered a tough season finishing just 59- 103, 35.5GB.  A healthy Rosario took the field in 2017 and began his accent to a leadership role on a young Twins roster looking for a star.  Rosario’s stats spoke for themselves, being placed in the middle of the Twins order Rosario blasted 27HR. Rosario also saw a huge progression in his advanced analytics. 2017 Stats (Increases from 2016)  OBP +33 – SLG  +86 – OPS +120 – XWOBA +59. The impact of having Rosario created a boast to the team as they finished 85-77 a ridiculous +26 in there win total.  While there are many different reasons for the increase in wins for the Twins it cannot be ignored that Rosario’s presence was huge for this team.

Rosario has continued his development in 2018 continuing to be a force.  The Twins struggled out of the gate mainly due to pitching issues.  But as we inch closer to the All Star break the twins currently sit 4.5 games back from the Central leading Indians.Eddie Rosario has been the reason why this team has been able to stay afloat in the division.  Over his last 15 games he has a Ruthian stat line .379BA 7HR 13RBI.  Eddie Rosario came into the league as a guy with a little pop but a lot of raw skills.  He used his speed and defensive ability to get into the lineup.  There has been a regression in his speed game, but I believe that is due to the fact that the Twins needed a guy that can hit for power.  Players like Byron Buxton can provide speed, Joe Mauer can provide more OBP. Rosario has changed his game to address the needs of his team.  He has found more value swinging for extra base hits and driving in runs.

Right now Eddie Rosario’s numbers should place him right in the middle of the MVP discussions.  His .323BA (5th), 16HR (10th), 46RBI (6th) put him in the same class as players like Mike Trout and Mookie Betts but he is still not looked at in the same light as these stars.  Rosario currently ranks 14th in AL All-Star voting behind players like Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Nick Castellanos and Michael Brantley.   While these players may be deserving they are not near the level of Eddie Rosario.   I live in realistic world, players in bigger markets are always going to be put in front of a player that plays in the midwest.  Rosario sits in a market that doesn’t receive the same level of coverage.  The baseball world has to open their eyes and see what is happening up in Minnesota.  The best way to make that happen is to win.  The Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau Minnesota Twins teams of the early 2000’s forced the sports world to pay attention.   If the Twins can get more consistency from their pitching and secondary players they can turn around what his been a disappointing season.

Eddie Rosario will most likely make the All- Star game, he may even find himself in the talks for MVP (Not Realistic to win).  What is certain though is that he is becoming a player that the league cannot ignore.  He hits both righties and lefties, he hits for power, he hits for average,  he has speed and he is only 26 years old! It is time to pay attention to this man and watch as he continues to be one of the best players in Major League Baseball.

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Reasons Mariners are Winning without Cano

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The Seattle Mariners currently sit atop of the ultra competitive American League West.  One game up on the reigning world champion Houston Astros.  Seattle being in first at this point in the season is surprising. The fact that they sit on top with their best player Robinson Cano on the DL (or suspended list) is inconceivable.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, known for his aggressive style, has made the moves necessary to cover for the 8 time All- Star.  These are the reasons why the Mariners are winning without their star

1.Soft Schedule

Winning is winning.  I will be the first to agree that it really shouldn’t matter who you play your team still has to show up and execute.  Still it is hard to ignore that the Mariners schedule is been very favorable over the past few series.  The Mariners have still not played the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and have also not had to travel to division foes Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros.

Seattle has won 13 of 16 over their last five series playing only one team with a record above .500, that team being the Oakland Athletics (25-23).  Seattle has feasted on struggling teams during this span.  Beating up the lesser competition in the American League will be vital as they wait for Robinson Cano to return to the lineup.

2.Bullpen Pieces stepping up

Jerry Dipoto made the first move of the 2018 season grabbing Rays Closer Alex Colome for a few mid level prospects.  Colome was another piece added to a bullpen that has begun to fill out their roles to perfection.  Offseason signee Juan Nicasio has begun to get back to his 2017 form, allowing the Mariners to have a 3 headed monster of power pitchers at the back end of the game.  Seattle’s bullpen sits at 8th in the league statistically allowing opposing hitters to hit just .228 against them.

Closer Edwin Diaz has made the conversion to top ten closer with an astounding .85WHIP during the 2018 season. Emerging arms Chasen Bradford, James Pazos and Ryan Cook have emerged as impact arms early in games.  Pazos has been especially nasty. Pazos has substantially decreased his home run rate. The 6’2” 235-lb hurler sports a career 15.6% HR/FB rate, which is thrown a bit out of whack by the 50% figure from his 3.1 innings in 2016. Pazos has given up a total of one run in his last 20 appearances.

3. James Paxton and Mitch Haniger

I put Paxton and Haniger together because they have both taken huge steps in their career during the early portion of the season.  Both highly touted prospects in the Mariners system have reformed themselves into team leaders both on the mound and at the plate.

Paxton the third round pick back in 2010 has emerged as the ace of the staff in 2018. Long time ace Felix Hernandez has not been the dominant force that he has been over the last ten years in Seattle. Paxton has emerged to dethrone the king in Seattle becoming more dominant at ever turn.  Paxton 5-1, 2.95ERA, has struck out an astounding 101 batters over 82.1 innings.  His dominance culminating in a no hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 9th.  Still just 29 years old Paxton is entering what could be the prime of his career at a time where the team needs him most.

Mitch Haniger is struggling right now for the Mariners.  Over his last 15 games he is just hitting .185.  The reason I have him on this list is because he has still been a force in the Mariners order.  For the season Haniger is has 12HR 43RBI this season.  Haniger has improved his advanced analytics across the board as well.  Picking up the production lost by the suspended Cano.  Haniger has stepped into the role as run producers for a team that lacked consistency through the order in 2017.

Haniger Advanced Stats (MLBSavant.com)

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The Mariners will eventually get back their star.  But if they are able to make it to the playoffs Cano will not be eligible to play.  This time without him will prepare them for that situation.  They have the pieces to contend but the upcoming months will provide us with a true idea of what this team is.  I see the playoffs in 2018….maybe.