Fantasy Football- Four late round targets

Value is the key to having a successful fantasy football draft. Finding sleepers is not an easy thing to do.  Injuries and stupidity from your conterparts can sometimes work out in your favor.  Here are a few guys that you can grab late that can end up being in that playoff lineup.  

Javonte WIlliams, RB, Denver Broncos, ADP: 64

Williams put up ridiculous numbers in his final season at North Carolina, finishing the season with 22 touchdowns and averaging 7.3 yards per carry. He was snagged in the second round by the Denver Broncos.  Williams will have to contend with veteran Melvin Gordon for carris but his experience sharing carries in college will prepare him for that role.  He will step onto the field ready to make the most of every touch.

When drafting Williams you may have to wait a few weeks to get the payback but the organization spent a top 35 pick on him which means they want him to play immediately.  Gordon is in his age 28 season and has a history of injury issues, you could likely see a time split early on in the season with Williams ability ultimately winning over the position.  

The Broncos have question marks with Drew Lock but the offensive weapons are still there and can create a lot of scoring opportunities. The solid Broncos defense could also play a factor into games, keeping it close, allowing the offense to play ball control with its two running backs.  Williams ability to break any play will be a great asset for your fantasy team.

Jamal Williams, RB, Detroit Lions, ADP: 125

Another overlooked Williams in the backfield is former Packer Jamaal Williams who inked a deal with the rival Detroit Lions in the offseason.  Williams has already shown the ability to make the most of his touches playing behind fantasy standout Aaron Jones last season.  Getting potentially limited touches behind second year runner De’Andre Swift shouldn’t deter you from taking a chance on the 26-year-old power runner. 

The Lions moving from Mathew Stafford to Jared Goff is a change in the offensive gameplan. Jared Goff’s style of play opens up the run game, utilizing the play action.  Goff has consistently had running backs that have excelled behind him.  The Lions starting RB Deandre Swift has shown an inability to stay on the field, which will mean more carries for Williams who has the ability to be an every down back. 

Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets, ADP: 123

A former first round pick that has become the focal point of a new offense with a dynamic QB at the helm.  That former first round pick is also coming off of the best season of his career and will likely be the deep threat for a team that will be playing from behind a lot during the 2021 season. With a new QB means a new favorite target and Zach Wilson has already made it clear that Davis is going to be his favorite. Wilson has thrown to Davis in 55% of his throws in the preseason. 

The Jets have rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason in order to protect their #2 overall pick. The idea is that Wilson will be allowed to let loose just like he did at BYU and if that is the ase the #1 option will be Corey Davis.  The best part is that you can get a top receiver with your 11th round pick or maybe even later.  

Ja’Mar Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, ADP: 59

Rookie receivers can come with risks.  It is one of the hardest positions to learn at the next level.  Luckily for Ja’Mar Chase he has a built in chemistry with QB Joe Burrow because of their time at LSU.  Chase has had a tough preseason, three drops on three targets in their most game has a lot of fantasy owners questioning him which could allow you to pick him up late in your drafts.  

The Bengals threw the ball a lot last season, regression is likely but when the game is on the line they will be looking to throw the ball.  The former LSU standout will get a lot of one-on-one coverage due to last year’s emergence of Tee Higgins.  Chase has the ability to be a top ten wide receiver as he progresses throughout the season.  Bengals Head Coach Zac Taylor was the mastermind that was able to bring the best out of Jared Goff, utilizing multiple wide receivers over the middle for short passes that eventually could open up the big play.  Joe Burrow is  way ahead of Goff and Chase is the most talented receiver on the team.  He will have an impact on a fantasy championship.

NFL DFS Picks Dec.6 (Main Slate)

*These are just suggestions!

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers made it look easy last Sunday against the Chicago Bears. He has put up at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last six games.  The Eagles are actually pretty good against QBs this season but they will have to face a red hot Rodgers who should have most of his offensive talent available to him.  He has built chemistry with players other than just Davante Adams.  Robert Tonyan and Allen Lazard have both seen steps forward.  Aaron is priced pretty fairly at just $6,800.  I want to ride the hot hand.

Other QB’s I Love:

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins

RB: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Austin Ekeler is back and so is the production.  Ekeler saw an astounding 16 targets out of the backfield last week against Buffalo, he had a total of 25 touches in his first game back and should see similar production against the Patriots.  The Patriots will likely try and lock down Keenan Allen, which will force rookie Justin Herbert to go to his check down Ekeler.  

Jonathan Taylor was activated from the covid list right on time for a juicy matchup with the worst rush defense in the league the Houston Texans. Houston has given up 26 ppg to RBs this season and it should continue this week, as the Colts will look to keep the ball on the ground to manage the clock. Taylor should see a lot of touches this weekend.  His price is the best part at just $5.7K.

Other RB’s I Love:

David Montgomery, Chicago Bear

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (Duh)

WR: Keke Coutee, Houston Texans

WR: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams

WR: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Keke Coutee is just $3.5K.  Coutee was the only receiver other than the suspended Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks to get a snap count above 25% in their last game.  Coutee will be forced into a bigger role without Fuller as the Texans will likely be forced to throw more against the tough Colts. 

Robert Woods has had 27 targets in his last two games.  He did not miss a single snap last week against the Cardinals.  His potential volume at a price under $6,000 makes him a great option in a likely high scoring game. 

Davante Adams- I am a believer that if you start a QB, you should start their #1 target.  Adams is by far the #1 target in Green Bay.  We saw what DK Metcalf did last week to the Eagles, we should see similar production from Adams on Sunday. 

Other WR’s I Love: 

Michael Pittman Jr, Indianapolis Colts

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

TE: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

Robert Tonyan is way to cheap at $3.7K.  The Eagles will be forced to pay attention to multiple offensive threats which should leave Tonyan with multiple opportunities to hit value.  The return of Lazard has opened up a lot more freedom for Tonyan in the red zone.  He is a serious threat for a TD at a way to low cost. 

Flex: James White, New England Patriots

James White has returned to form over the last two weeks.  The injury to Rex Burkhead has opened up a lot of production for White, he has put up back to back weeks of 14+ points and has a good matchup with the Chargers on Sunday.  White shockingly rushed for two touchdowns last week, getting the red zone carries.  His real value comes from targets out of the backfield but by adding the threat of goal line carries he is way underpriced at just $5,000.  

Defense: Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks have found a pass rush since adding Carlos Dunlap and getting healthier in the secondary.  They get to face the Giants with Colt McCoy under center.  

Fantasy Football Regrets

The fantasy football playoffs are already upon us.  This is the time that we look back and tell ourselves what we did wrong.  You may have been just one pick away from being a champion or being dead last.  I played in a couple leagues this year and here are my biggest regrets. I did not take injuries into account because they can happen at any time and you can’t consider that a mistake. 

AJ Green in the 6th round. Total fantasy points 41.7

Sometimes name value does cloud your judgement.  That was the case when I grabbed AJ Green in the 6th round.  I had already taken two RB’s and two WR’s that I had a ton of confidence in, I always wait on QB’s and I had snagged Darren Waller in the fifth round.  I wanted some depth and a potential flex option.  Green has been a star receiver for most of my fantasy football life.  His last time actually playing in 2018 he was putting up 11 points per game on an offense that didn’t have much depth outside of him. 

While I was sure injuries may have slowed him down he was still only in his ninth season coming off of a year without contact and a QB in Joe Burrow that was ready to throw the ball a lot. The Bengals have thrown the ball a lot ,just rarely goes to AJ Green.  He has three games this season where he was targeted over ten times and his total scores in those games were 8.2, 8.2 and 3.  Green just doesn’t have the same speed and playmaking ability he once had.  On the season he has just 1 TD and that came in week 11.  

With Joe Burrow tearing his ACL, the Bengals season is pretty much done.  Green will have no motivation to even try and make something of himself.  This was a bad call that you just have to live with in the fantasy world sometimes.  

DeAndre Hopkins over DaVante Adams

I played lightly this season, only entering two leagues.  One league was a 12 man league where I picked Davante Adams in the second round.  Another was an 8 team league that I picked DeAndre Hopkins in the second round.  Little did I know that Hopkins was actually going to regress after finally getting away from Bill O’Brien.  

I am not blaming Hopkins.  He is playing with a second year QB that is still trying to handle the adjustments of the superior level defenses.  But still there have been times this season where it appears as if Hopkins isn’t even in the game.  He ranks 12th in fantasy points per game at just 10.8 (Fantasypros.com).  In 2017 and 2018 Hopkins was a TD machine bringing in 11 and 13 each of those seasons.  He currently has just 4 touchdowns on the season and one of those was the miracle hail mary against the Bills.  

The Cardinals offense has leaned more toward the utilization of Kyler’s ability to run the ball on his own rather than target their #1 receiver. Don’t get me wrong, 77 catches for 967 yards is not a scrub season, but Adams is having an elite season despite his injuries.  This one won’t make me lose sleep but I can still curse the name of DeAndre Hopkins.  

Believing Devin Singletary was going to be good. 

I drafted Devin Singletary in my 8 team league in the 9th round, 69th overall.  I shouted to the rooftops last year that I thought a healthy Singletary could easily be a top ten RB in fantasy because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  This thought was stupid.  Josh Allen is the best RB on the team and the Bills really only seem interested in him running the ball and throwing it over the top.  The game plan along with the addition of Zach Moss, who was drafted in the 3rd round out of Utah basically made Singletary and after thought.  

Singletary currently has101 total fantasy points (PPR). He has actually been productive on the ground averaging 4 yards per carry but he has only found the end zone 1 time in 2020 and has seen less and less snaps as the season has gone on. Over his last 7 games he has only hit double digits in fantasy points twice.  It’s not so much that I thought Singletary was going to carry me to the championship but I really thought he would be a solid flex play every single week.  He ended up being my first drop of the year.  

Main Slate Draftkings Lineup

QB: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans ($7,100)

Watson gets a week of rest ahead of a game with the Jacksonville Jaguars with their horrendous defense.  The Jags give up the 4th most fantasy points to QBs this season and Watson has already roasted them once with 29.86 fantasy points in week five.  Watson is moderately priced at just $7.1K.  What makes him a better choice than Justin Herbert or any other top fives is that his receivers are affordable.  He is easy to match up with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Darren Fells.  

Other QB’s I Love:

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

RB: Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings ($8,200)

RB: James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,000)

Dalvin Cook is coming off of a monster performance against the Packers.  He will likely be very popular but the matchup is too good to ignore.  The Lions give 32 fantasy points per game this season versus RBs.  The Minnesota offense has very little interest in putting the ball in the hands of Kirk Cousins.  They will continue to feature Cook and he will dominate this matchup. 

James Robinson will have a rookie QB at the helm on Sunday when he faces one of the worst run defenses in the league.  The Jaguars, Texans game has one of the top totals in the league and Robinson will be a big part of that.  Robinson is hot, ride the hot hand. 

Other RB’s I Love:

Deejay Dallas, Seattle Seahawks (If Carson is ruled out)

David Johnson, Houston Texans

WR: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans ($5,500)

WR: Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions ($5,100)

WR: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,800)

Cooks is my choice to pair with Watson.  His cost at $5.5K is a main reason why.  He has three straight games with at least nine targets.  He dominated the Jaguars in his last outing against them going for 33 DK points. 

Jones Jr. may be without Mathew Stafford on Sunday.  Even without Stafford Jones Jr. should still be a great option against the subpar Vikings secondary. The Vikings have given up 15 touchdowns to wide receivers this year.  The Lions won’t have Kenny Golladay on Sunday and may have Chase Daniel under center but they are a team that consistently will lean on the pass.  

You can start nearly any Chief and have a great chance to get points.  Mecole Hardman is coming off a nine target game, his explosiveness is always a touchdown waiting to happen.  His price tag of $4.8K is too intriguing to ignore.  Hardeman has been the clear replacement for Sammy Watkins seeing 68% of the snaps, second on the team to Tyreke Hill.  Find a receiver on an offense this good at a similar price,  go ahead and play him. 

Other WR’s I Love: 

Any Seattle or Buffalo Receivers you can fit.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

TE: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos ($4,600)

Tightend has its top options.  Kelce, Waller and Andrews are always great but Noah Fant is beginning to find himself in that category. He is a target monster for a Denver team that doesn’t have a clear #1 receiver. Atlanta has given up the most fantasy points to the position in the league.  

Flex: Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,900)

Seems like Justin Jackson is now the #1 RB for the Chargers.  Coming off of a game where he got 20 touches and 5 total targets he has established himself in the Chargers backfield.  Jackson gets a great matchup with the Raiders.  He is a starting RB, in a great matchup with a close spread and a high potential total. 

Defense: New York Giants ($2,700)

They are a defense playing a bottom five offense.  Why not. 

Other Defense I Love:

Steelers (Duh)

Washington Football Team

The Airing of Fantasy Football Grievances!

Being a fantasy football champion is not easy.  As a multiple time champion across many leagues I have found that your season can be dependant on many things.  If you draft well, you can be set if you avoid injuries. If you don’t draft well you better be good at working the waiver wire.  After my most recent championship was locked in yesterday, I took a look at how some teams drafted and wanted to help them air out their grievances. In honor of the great Seinfeld’s festivus we are going to host the airing of grievances to our top three fantasy disappointments in 2019. 

3. David Montegomery, RB, Chicago Bears

A popular sleeper in most leagues, this rookie RB out of Iowa State was supposed to walk into an awesome situation.  Taking over the primary back roll with for the departing Jordan Howard should have lead to solid production for a run heavy offense.  Well that was not the story of 2019 for Montegomery. The problem was not completely on the rookie. The Bears had plenty of problems other than their running game.  

Still when you finish the season ranked behind James White, Ronald Jones and just two points ahead of James Conner (played ten games) you have to be called a bust.  Montegomery went from a top sleeper to a droppable option. Next season could be a different story for the Bears and their run game but for the 2019 season they deserve to be hated.

2. Le’Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets

Remember last year when people took Le’veon Bell with a top three pick in their drafts?  I do, because I was one of those people. Bell was supposed to have a new life in New York.  An up and coming Quarterback, an offense with some solid weapons, a team that was on the rise.  Bell was going to be the final piece of the puzzle of a team that was supposed to compete in 2019.  We forgot about Adam Gase.  

Le’Veon Bell has averaged just 3.3 YPC, 4 total touchdowns and 61 receptions.  All of these numbers acceptable for a fifth round RB3 on your team, but not for a guy that was a preseason #18 average draft position.  Bell currently ranks 15th overall in fantasy points by running backs, behind rookie Miles Sanders, barely ahead of Kenyan Drake. Bell’s season was ok, but we don’t want ok.  Hey Adam Gase this guy is the best player you have on the field. Be smarter.

1. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns

The Browns were going to be good in 2019.  Baker Mayfield and new addition Odell Beckham Jr.  were going to set the league on fire with a huge aerial attack.  Beckham Jr. was finally happy and can flourish to his full potential…… Uh no.   The Browns much like Beckham’s fantasy output have been a complete flop this season.  

Odell was projected as the #6 wide receiver in most preseason ADP, closing as the 18th player overall in most leagues.  You were spending a second round fantasy pick on a guy that has seen the end zone just two times the entire season heading into week 16.  

Odell found some success in game 16 of the year but he already burned you and it’s too late to make up for it now.

Forget the Waiver Wire- Play your Bench

Injuries week one are going to open the door for multiple “handcuffs” and waiver wire pickups to make an impact in week two.  Injuries to Darrius Guice, Nick Foles, Tevin Coleman and Joe Mixon should leave other players with a chance to make impacts.  I am looking more toward the players that showed up bigger than expected the first week of the season.  Here are three players that are will continue to overplay their preseason fantasy value in week two. They are most likely owned in your league, put them in the lineup!

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Baltimore Ravens (32% ESPN) (30% Yahoo)

Speed plays in the NFL. Look at the breakouts of Alvin Kamara and Tyreke Hill over the past few seasons.  Marquise Brown showed off that speed in his first career NFL game. Catching his first pass for a 47-yard slant straight to the endzone.  Brown continued to dominate the field going for 147 total yards and adding another 40-yard touchdown reception.  

Marquise will get another favorable matchup in week 2 when the Ravens take on the Arizona Cardinals who just gave up 385 passing yards to the Detroit Lions in week one.  Danny Amendola put up huge numbers last week hauling in seven catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.  While Brown will have his ups and downs during his first season in the league he will have flashes of brilliance like he did Week 1.  Week 2 should be just as explosive. 

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets, (70% ESPN) (46% Yahoo)

Drafting Jamison Crowder always comes with its risk.  As a multi time Crowder drafter I have been bite quit a few times.  Like an addict though I just couldn’t get enough of the potential high that Crowder can bring.  Taking Crowder looks like it may pay off heading into week one.  Crowder found himself as the favorite target for Sam Darnold. catching 14 of 17 passes for 99 yards. While Crowder didn’t find the endzone he still brought tons of value especially in PPR leagues. 

The best part about Crowder is that he is still available in over 50% of leagues.  Crowder’s health during a full season is always up in the air. In week two the Jets will matchup with the Browns coming off of an embarrassing defeat against the Tennessee Titans 43-13.  Marcus Mariota was able to torch the Browns secondary, the Jets should have a similar chance to do that on Monday.  

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills, (70% ESPN) (71% Yahoo)

Singletary was listed at the top of the depth chart in Buffalo to begin the season.  Playing 70% of the snaps for the Bills in week one showed who was considered to be the #1 RB for Buffalo but his actual carries were limited to just four actual carries.  Singletary was able to gain 70 yards as well as bring in five catches. Singletary showed the bust-out potential he has, which will make him a featured back going into week 2. 

A matchup with the Giants defense is just what the doctor ordered for a potential impactful game. New York gave up 151 rushing yards to the Dallas Cowboys last week, they should not bring an impactful push against the run heavy Buffalo Bills.  Singletary will be the featured back and should have a very solid game ahead of him.  I’m looking for 100+ rushing yards and 50+ receiving yards.