Betting Picks

NFL Week 9 picks ATS

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals +10

This line is interesting, seems like a letdown spot for the 49ers heading to Arizona.  The Cardinals have had issues in the red zone and the 49ers are great defending the red zone.  Arizona has problems against the tight end and the 49ers have the best tight end in football.  This is a smash spot for San Fran.  They will cover, don’t over think it.

Pick: San Francisco -10

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London) +1

I want to take the Texans. I love Deshaun Watson, but they have had their issues with the Jags.  The Houston line is in trouble, offseason acquisition Laremy Tunsil is very questionable which is a problem for the Texans.  The Jaguars have the pass rush to give Watson a lot of trouble, while the Texans have lost JJ Watt which obviously will hurt their pass rush. 

Jacksonville has been through these London games before,  that matters.  Jags will win a close one.

Pick: Jacksonville +1

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills -9.5

Washington is bad on offense, but they seem to know how to cover.  Dwayne Haskins does not look ready to be the starter, a matchup with the Bills terrible. My pick is based on assuming Case Keenum will play, if he plays they will find a way to cover.  

Pick: Washington +9.5

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers -4

I try to avoid the Titans because they are so unpredictable.  Ryan Tannahill has been great over his first two starts.  Notably dominating a poor Buccaneers secondary. This is going to be a different challenge for the former Miami QB.  The Panthers are coming off a shellacking at the hands of the 49ers last week which should put them in a foul mood heading into this game.

Carolina is a different team at home.  They will lean more heavily on their star running back Christian McCaffery, I will also look for Curtis Samuel to breakout in this one.  I think we are getting a great buy low on a Carolina team that is better than what we saw last week

Pick: Carolina -4

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles -5

Been back and forth on this one all week.  Trubisky has been horrible all season.  He gets a favorable matchup with the Eagles secondary.  This will be the time that we see the Trubisky of last season.  The Bears defense will keep them in the game by supplying a ton of pressure on Carson Wentz.  

Bear’s defense keeps them in it and cover.

Pick: Chicago +5

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins +3

The Jets are better than the Dolphins.  I see a big game from Sam Darnold.  Jets win by at least ten.

Pick: New York Jets -3

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers -1

The Colts are another case of public playing a recency bias, struggling mightily against the Denver Broncos last week.  Indianapolis has been good on the road going 2-1 covering or pushing the spread in each game. 

The Steelers will fall behind early in this game and the superior Colts offensive line will work the clock. Indy is the better team and has no fear of the road.

Pick: Indianapolis -1

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders -2

Two similar teams meeting in a must win situation makes for what should be a really fun matchup.  The way to beat the Raiders is to pressure on Derek Carr.  That is something that the Lions have not been successful in doing this season.  Oakland will lean on the running game and Josh Jacobs which will open up the passing game for Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams. 

The Raiders are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games.  The Lions have had problems ever since they lost Kerryon Johnson. Raiders win by 3.

Pick: Oakland -2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks -6

This is going to be an offensive explosion on both ends. The Buccaneers are going to bring their air raid offense to Seattle.  The time of the Legion of Boom is very over.  Seattle has been crushed through the air this year and will continue on Sunday. 

The Seattle Seahawks have failed to cover all four games at home this season.   They are a run first team which plays right into the hands of the Buccaneers who love to sell out to the run.  If Winston can avoid multiple turnovers this one should be close.

Pick: Tampa Bay +6

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos +3

Baker better come to play in Denver.  If the Browns lose to a rookie QB there will be full on anarchy.  Cleveland will put up too many points for the Broncos to keep up with.

Pick: Cleveland -3

Green Bay Packers at LA Chargers +4

This will be a home game for the Packers.  The Chargers were able to get to a much-needed victory of the Chicago Bears last week.  They face Aaron Rodgers this week rather than Mitchell Trubisky. Rodgers will reportedly have the services of Davante Adams

The Packers are already 3-0 against the spread on the road already and will continue their success. 

Pick: Packers -4

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens +3.5

You can run on the Patriots. Just hold on to the ball.  The Ravens will do their best to make sure that they keep Tom Brady off the field.  Baltimore is not scared of the Patriots and they will show it Sunday night.  

This is the toughest matchup of the year for New England.  They will be challenged in this one.  I see it as a field goal game.  Not sure which way so I have to go with the underdog at home.

Pick: Ravens +3.5

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants +7

I am keeping this last one simple.  I believe a lot of money will be on the Cowboys in this one.  The Giants have their full complement of offensive weapons. The Giants will be able to move the ball,  I wonder whether they will be able to stop the Cowboys.  I’m taking the home team with the points.  

Pick: New York Giants +7

NCAAF Football Picks ATS Week 9

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Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats +23.5

The Wildcats bring in the perfect matchup for a cover.  Kansas State has been the best in the Big12 at defending the pass, giving up just 152.5 yards pe game, 5thbest in the entire country. That is what Oklahoma is all about.  While I don’t see Kansas State completely shutting down the pass game, I do see them forcing Oklahoma to run the ball more than they would like which can slow up the attack.

Kansas State will look to do what they do best and possess the ball.  They will look to run and run often with work horse runningback James Gilbert. The longer they can keep Jalen Hurts off the field the better chance they have to survive.  

Oklahoma wins, but Kansas State gives them a tough game. 

Pick: Kansas State +23.5

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

This was supposed to be a matchup of undefeated powerhouses.  Wisconsin may have been looking too far ahead as they became the biggest upset of 2019, losing to Illinois on a last second field goal.  The Badgers turned the ball over three times against the Illini, which helped blow  20-7 second half lead. 

Ohio State has done everything possible to show that they are the cream of the crop in college football, dominating every game. The competition hasn’t been great, that all changes on Saturday.  Despite their loss Wisconsin still sees themselves as the top of the food chain in the Big10. The Badgers have to come out and establish Jonathon Taylor early and often. Wisconsin is averaging 38 minutes of possession per game. They will work to grind out the Buckeyes and force them to play from behind, something they have not done at all this season.  

Wisconsin is the biggest test for the Buckeyes this season, Ohio State QB Justin Fields has not seen a defense that can bring the pressure the way Wisconsin can.  Buckeyes win but they are tested.

Pick: Wisconsin +14.5

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans +6.5

Michigan State’s offense has disappeared since their shocking loss to Arizona State.  The Spartans have averaged a paltry 5.7 points per game over their last three.  Michigan State has not shown the ability to play up to the higher level of competition. Ohio State and Wisconsin beat the hell out of the Sparty, and they will have similar trouble coming their way on Saturday.

Sophomore QB Sean Clifford has been superb with a 56% completion percentage, helping the Nitany Lions get out to a 7-0 start.  Despite the 7-0 start Penn State has had trouble covering against ranked opponents, failing to cover against Michigan and Iowa.   They have a terrible history versus Michigan State, going 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six matchups.  

Penn State’s history is not what I am worried about.  Looking past Michigan State is the only thing that I am worried about.  This matchup is not as highly regarded as it would be if Michigan State hadn’t been embarrassed by Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Penn State has to stay focused and overcome the recent history of these two teams.  Penn State’s offense is just too strong for Michigan State’s defense to handle.  Penn State will grab a lead early and that will be to much for the Spartans to overcome. 

Pick: Penn State -6.5

Other Games:

Texas -1

App State -27

Marshall/ Western Kentucky over 44.5

NCAAF Picks Oct 19

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Houston Cougars at UConn Huskies +22

The Huskies are fade worthy every single week.  This week is no different.  The Houston Cougars saw themselves potentially on the verge of pulling off an upset of a top 25 team until they gave up 17 points and the lead to Cincinnati in the 4thquarter.

Heading into a matchup with UConn, Cougar’s QB Clayton Tune should be able to find his grove pretty easily (if healthy).  Houston was able to move the ball pretty well versus a stout Cincinnati defense until their collapse.  If Tune is healthy, he should be able to dominate on the offensive end. 

UConn playing at home which should give them a bump, but this is still UConn.  Money is coming in on the Huskies which has already dropped this by a half a point.  I just believe the Cougars will play with a fire after their tough loss last week. They jump out early and run the score up. 

Pick: Houston Cougars -22

Oregon State Beavers at California Golden Bears Total: 51.5

California is coming off a much-needed bye week, previously losing a tough 17-7 game versus Pac12 powerhouse Oregon.  The Bears are still without Quarterback Chase Garbers, they will again look to Devon Modster to carry the Golden Bears offense.  California’s defense will have to be the star on Saturday, Oregon State QB Jake Lutton has been lighting up the sky with 1400 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one interception on the season.

California has gone 4-0 in unders at home and 10-1 on unders in their last 11 conference games.   I expect California to win this game at home, that means it will have to be a low scoring affair.  Cal doesn’t have the offense to compete with Oregon State, but their defense at home is too good.  Cal wins 26- 18.

Pick: Under 51.5

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers -3

Virginia is looking to get their groove back after two straight losses versus Notre Dame and Miami, relinquishing their lead in the ACC Coastal Division.  What’s been the problem?  The offensive line’s inability to handle the pass rush.  That should not be the same problem heading into their matchup with the Duke Blue Devils.  

Duke has been red hot offensively against the weaker opponents on the schedule, Middle Tennessee, North Carolina A&T, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  Losing rather easily to the Alabama and Pittsburgh. Duke was not able to throw the ball well in their two losses.  They will have to be able to throw against Virginia, who ranks 11thin the country against the run.  

This is the time to buy low on Virginia.  Only a three-point spread at home against a team that has not shown the ability to handle real competition.  The concerns about injuries in the secondary for Virginia will have people worried about the recency bias of Duke’s offense.  Virginia will have the use of #1 wide receiver Hasise Dubois, which means they will be at full force on the offensive end.  

Three points at home for the top of the ACC Coastal Division.  Give me the Cavaliers all day.  

Pick: Virginia -3

Other Games I’m leaning

Florida -5

Temple +9

NCAA Picks ATS Week 5

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Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers -24.5, Total 46.5

Northwestern blows. The chalk bet of last weekend was Northwestern +7 against Michigan State.  That bet didn’t work out for most and never made sense in the first place. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in college football, they are now going to be greeted with a dominant Wisconsin defense.  

Northwestern has had no success on any part of their offensive end.  They especially have had issues with their passing game only connecting on 48% of their passes with just one touchdown to go along with six interceptions. Wisconsin has the #1 pas efficiency defense in the nation. That means that the Wildcats are going to have to try and run the ball.  That game plan will not be very effective as the Badgers have given up a total of 20 yards per game this season.  

Wisconsin is at home versus a team that can’t score.  This should be a cake walk.

Pick: Wisconsin -24.5

Rutgers Scarlett Knights at Michigan Wolverines -28

Michigan is coming off of one of their most embarrassing losses in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Getting embarrassed at the hands of Wisconsin last week has left a bad taste in the mouth of all Michigan players.  Rutgers will now have the aggression of that loss taken out of them on Saturday.  

I understand that Dylan McCaffery is most likely out and Shea Patterson is very beat up, leaving the quarterback play as a question mark.  They seemed to figure it out at the end of the game after it was all but wrapped up.  The Wolverines are at home, they are not facing the offensive and defensive lines of Wisconsin.  This is Rutgers.  

Again, this is Rutgers. Michigan has to dominate this game to work their way back into relevance.  Look for pain.  

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -28

Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -11

Notre Dame is coming off of a valiant effort against Georgia.  They now get a quietly interesting showdown with the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers have a dominant defensive front.  They lead the ACC in tackles for a loss and lead the nation in sacks.  They have yet to give up 100 rushing yards in any of their four games this season. 

Virginia has been a tough out ATS against top teams. The Cavaliers have gone 13-3 ATS over their last sixteen games versus teams with winning records. The Irish have to feel a let done after the loss to Georgia and will come out sluggish.  The Virginia front will be a tough challenge for Norte Dame, while their offense lead by Bryce Perkins has enough to keep them in the game. Notre Dame wins, but it won’t be easy.

Pick: Virginia +11

Other Picks:

Texas Tech +27.5

USC/Washington over 61

Bets that should have won week 3

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Giants beat the Buccaneers with a rookie QB. Took Tampa Bay

The matchup between Tampa Bay and New York was the definition of gambling  gone wrong. A rookie Quarterback on the road versus a well-rested Buccaneers team coming off of a huge upset victory over the Panthers. 

Jamies Winston came out firing, finding his number one target Mike Evans for 135 yards and three touchdowns in the first half! Tampa Bay took a 28- 10 lead into half time. This game was not only over but the -6 cover was a given.  No way a rookie Quarterback is going to lead a comeback victory on the road when their best player Saquon Barkley is no longer a part of the game plan. 

The Buccaneers then decided that it was time to be the Buccaneers.  Despite their dominance through the air Byron Leftwich decided it was time to lean on a non-existent run game.  Instead of relying on what was working they decided to go in the opposite direction.  Not many would agree with leaning your game plan on Jameis Winston, but it was working!

Daniel Jones went on to torch the Buccaneers along with our dreams of covering.  Jones became the first ever rookie quarterback to throw for 300 yards, touch owns and run for two touchdowns.  The media will play up Jones as a savior of New York Giants football. While he killed me this weekend, I will be fading him next week.  

Panthers win without Cam. Took Arizona +2.5

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals were at home, the Panthers were without their Quarterback.  Arizona was coming off of two large late game comebacks versus the Ravens and Lions.  The momentum of Arizona rightfully put them as the favorite.  The Cardinals were going to face Kyle Allen, an undrafted free agent out of Houston. 

The Cardinals fast paced offense was supposed to lead to big points, the pace worked against Arizona as Allen was able to pick them apart utilizing CMC and the ageless wonder Greg Olsen. Arizona has a strong future ahead of them but they let us down in week 3 and continue tough matchups in week 4. 

Seahawks lose at home to a backup QB. Took Seattle -4

I had two locks this week. The first of those being the Seahawks at home -4 versus the New Orleans Saints without Drew Brees.  This was a game that I though Vegas had lost its mind. The Seahawks were coming off of two victories in a row where they dominated on the offensive end.  Seattle was playing at home against a Quarterback that hadn’t played a full game in like two years.  

Seattle decided to pick this weekend to lay an egg.  Literally seems like Chris Carson believes the ball is an egg and it can only stay safe on the turf. New Orleans showed up on defense and special teams allowing Teddy Bridgewater to play the role of game manager.  New Orleans got a boost from their ancillary pieces, something they cannot rely on in the weeks to come.  

Seattle’s defense is not what I thought they would be when they picked up Jadaveon Clowney, continually giving up big plays.  Their offense makes for a great matchup for week 4 when they face the Cardinals.

MLB Picks May 18

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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

This matchup seems like I’ve played it recently.  Oh.. I did and won the ML with the Yankees.  Blake Snell could arguably be the best pitcher in baseball, but he has had his struggles against the Yankees with a 3-5 record and a 4.52 ERA in his career versus the bronx bombers.  The Yankees are also quietly getting healthier with the return of Gary Sanchez Aaron Hicks.  Did you know they moved into first place in the AL East?  Most probably didn’t. 

Betting an against the best pitcher in baseball is probably not the best idea but getting +112 for a first-place team with their ace on the mound is always worth a gamble.  The Yankees are hot, ride this one while you have the value.

Pick: Yankees +112

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

I’m going to start by saying that the Angels are 26-17 ATS this season.  This lineup is one of the more underrated sources of power in the league with the return of Shohei Otani. They now feature a lineup that goes pretty deep as career utility man Tommy La Stella has emerged from the scrap heap to lead the Angels in homers (11).  Even players at the bottom have found ways to contribute most notably Kole Calhoun is slugging .490. 

The Angels will get a chance at Jakob Junis who couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning in his most recent start and has a problem with giving up the long ball.  The Royals have had bullpen issues as well sitting at the bottom of the league in most statistics including saves (obviously).

Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Angels.  He has had a problem giving up the long ball this season but will face off with a Royals lineup that will not provide as many power threats as the Angels. 

Pick: Angels RL (+110)

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers- 9.5

The Tigers will send hard luck Mathew Boyd to the mound against the Athletics on Saturday.  I call him hard luck because he may be the best pitcher in baseball no one is talking about.  Boyd currently sits 3-4, 3.15ERA and .99WHIP.  Boyd will have a challenge with the Oakland A’s, a team that is tough against lefties but has overall underperformed in 2019.

Boyd should be able to hold his own while the Detroit lineup has struggled ultimately the entire 2019 campaign. I am going to bet on bad offense from Detroit and solid pitching from Boyd. 

Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)

MLB Picks 4/20/19

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I have been throwing out a lot of picks lately and haven’t held myself accountable so today I begin to truly cover my plays and see what my end of the season record may be. Let’s get this started on a winning track.

Chicago White Sox (Santana) at Detroit Tigers (Norris)

The Detroit Tigers as a team haven’t hit much all year. They have however been better at home with a .244 BA at home when compared to a .183 BA away from Comerica Park. Ervin Santana has not been stellar in his first two starts of the season giving up 10 earned runs over 8 innings and getting shelled by right handed hitters.

The Tigers have a healthy Nick Castellanos back in their lineup which will propel them to a victory at home.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -135

Boston Red Sox (Porcello) at Tamp Bay Rays (Morton)

Rick Porcello has been a ticking time bomb to start the season, a matchup the leagues best team has the potential for time to run out. Lefties in particular have hit Porcello to a tune of .460 batting average in more than enough of a sample size.

The Tamp Bay Rays will have an array of lefties in their lineup including Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi and the red hot Austin Meadows. Even if Boston was playing better this is not a matchup that benefits the the world champs.

Pick: Tamp Bay Rays -1.5 (+140)

Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) at Colorado Rockies (Senzatela)

No one expected the Rockies to have struggles on the offensive side of the ball but that has been the case early in 2019. The Rockies are bottom five in most offensive categories. With a slash line of .215/.274/.360 at the plate as a team a matchup with Aaron Nola seems like trouble for Colorado. However, their offense has come alive during their recent winning streak, scoring at least four runs in each of their last five games.

The Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound coming off of a great first start against San Diego going 6.2 innings while only giving up one run. Ryan McMahon has stepped up for the Rockies filling in for the injured Daniel Murphy. The Rockies as a home dog versus a usually sluggish start to the season for Nola should give great value in this situation.

Pick: Rockies +105

CBB Picks ATS 2.23.19

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Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers

Tennessee was primed to make a statement last week in Lexington. They had control of the SEC and could bury the “mighty” Kentucky Wildcats.  Instead they saw an end to their 20-game winning streak and found themselves just one game up the aforementioned Wildcats and their opponents on Saturday the LSU Tigers.

This is a matchup of offensive teams both ranking in the top ten in scoring in all of college basketball.  The difference on Saturday will be the ability of either team to establish themselves on the defensive end.  In LSU’s loss to Florida on Wednesday night the Tigers were unable to adjust to a Florida that tried to slow down the pace. If Tennessee is able to establish a slower pace and dominate the ball control LSU will not be able to adjust.

We have seen the Volunteers win scrappy games when they have to.   I like Jordan Bone holding Tremont Waters in check and the Volunteers to prevail on the road.  I’m not going to worry about last week or the Rick Barnes curse.  Give me the Volunteers in a huge SEC game.

Pick: Tennessee -1

Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

Every week I look at Maryland and see a potential second weekend team.  It could be my love for the traditional big that you really only see in college basketball.  Bruno Fernando is a throwback to the basketball I watched as a kid.  Throw it to the big man and impose your will.  The sophomore center enjoyed his matchup in Columbus putting up 13 point and 15 rebounds.  He will be on the attack early against Ohio State’s Kaleb Wesson whom was no match in the first meeting.  If Wesson gets into foul trouble the deficiencies of Ohio State’s depth will show.

Neither team will bring a potent offensive attack, but if Maryland is able to avoid a sluggish start that they are known for they should be able to coast to an easy victory at home.  They also have to find a way to cut down on their turnovers.  If they play smart and feed Fernando early it will open up looks for the slick shooting freshman guard Aaron Wiggins whom has hit 9 of 18 from behind the arc over the teams last 3 games. 

Maryland is 3-0 ATS in their last three home games.  Give me Maryland to cover. Take care of the ball!

Pick: Maryland -6.5

Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange

We all know Duke without Zion Williamson is going to cause some problems.  What is being ignored is that a healthy Tre Jones is back in the lineup for the Blue Devils.  In the first matchup his injury forced the Blue Devils to run the point with RJ Barrett and company.  With Jones as the helm Barrett will be free to work inside the Syracuse zone.  His ability to create at the top of the key will be a huge factor.  I assume Coach K will utilize one of his big’s in Zion’s spot, while that may be the game plan to start don’t be surprised to see a lot of sharp shooting sophomore Alex O’Connell. 

Syracuse shot lights out in the first matchup, Frank Howard will have the defense of Tre Jones hounding him all night which will lead to more turnovers not allowing the Orange to set their press.  Duke has the superior athletes even without Zion.  If utilized correctly they should cover the spread.

Pick: Duke -4.5

Other games I like:

Illinois/Penn State Under 145.5

MO State/ Indiana State Under 131.5

Purdue -5

Marquette -3

Texas +3.5

Kansas State -10.5

SLU +6.5