Betting Picks

NCAAF Picks ATS Nov 7

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Boston College Golden Eagles -14 at Syracuse Orange

I was a big advocate of fading Kansas early this season.  My fade attention has now turned to the Syracuse Orange.  I loved Wake Forest last week and that paid off in a major way, I am looking at a similar story in this matchup.  This is the second week in a row that people are overvaluing the Orange’s showing against Clemson.  

Syracuse has given up a lot of points this year (33.29 per game).  The biggest problem has been a complete inability to stop the run.  The Orange give up 222 yards per game on the ground.   While Boston College no longer has AJ Dillon in the backfield they still have the ability to gain yards on the ground against the Cuse defense.  Boston College QB Paul Jurkovec has passed for 1,875 yards with 14 touchdowns.  He will have a chance to throw down field after BC establishes the run.  

Boston College is coming off of a tough loss to Clemson but they will have the chance to re-establish themselves against a putrid defense on Saturday.  This game should be closer to a 17 point spread.  The Golden Eagles are too strong on offense for Syracuse to keep this one close.  Give me BC.  #fadeCuse

Pick: Boston College -14

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats -3.5

We are currently in a world wher Northwestern football is favored in a Big Ten football game.  The Wildcats are the most improved team in the conference, beginning the season 2-0 with wins against Maryland and at Iowa.  The Maryland victory looks even better after the Terps ran all over Minnesota last week.  The key to the Northwestern success was through the running game. They feature two very talented runners in Isaiah Browser and Drake Anderson. Browser is coming off of running for 82 yards against Iowa while Anderson was held in check in week two, he showed his explosive ability in week one going for 100 yards on just ten carries.

Nebraska started strong against powerhouse Ohio State in their first game, eventually the talent of the Buckeyes was too much as they fell 52-17.  Nebraska will need more from QB Adrian Martinez through the air.  He threw for just 105 yards versus Ohio State, he did lead the team in rushing with 85 yards and a touchdown.  Martinez will have trouble relying on his legs as the Wildcats have some of the top linebackers in the conference that will sure to have their eyes on him as he trys to leave the pocket. 

Northwestern will be able to control the ball with the run game and contain Adrian Martinez.  This game will be close but eventually the Wildcats will take control and run away with the victory, literally. 

Pick: Northwestern -3.5

North Carolina Tarheels -10.5 at Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina is coming off of a loss to Virginia.  Their second loss in the ACC since finding themselves in uncharted waters,  top ten in college football.  Mac Brown’s squad has squandered any chance of an ACC title or being legit competition for the big boys of the conference.  They have a chance on Saturday to take out some of their frustration on rival Duke.  

Duke’s problem will be stopping UNC QB Sam Howell.  One of the best in the country, Howell is coming off of a game where he threw for 400 yards and four touchdowns.  Duke has been middle of the pack against the pass most of the season but they have given up points to good offenses.  Behind Howell UNC should be able to get an early lead due to the fact that Duke gives up yards in chunks.  They are giving up 7.4 yards per attempt this season.  

With Carolina jumping out to an early lead they will force the Blue Devils to throw the ball to make up the advantage.  Duke QB Chase Brice is capable but has had a serious issue with turnovers.  Brice has thrown 11 interceptions while being sacked 22 times.  Duke’s only chance will be to hold down the talented Tarheel offense,  a task that seems unlikely.  

Pick: North Carolina -10.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 7-4

NCAAF Picks ATS, Week 9

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Temple Owls at Tulane Green Wave

The total for this game has taken a tumble from 64 to 59.5.  The drop of this magnitude is something I am going to jump on. 

These two teams have not stopped anyone. Tulane is coming off of giving up over 600 yards to UCF.  Temple is coming off of giving up 31 second half points to Memphis.   While they both played offensive oriented teams the lack of defense from both of these teams will transition to their next matchup.  

Temple was able to counter the Memphis offense with gaining some yard of their own behind QB  Anthony Russo.  The Owls gained 489 yards and got 30 first downs. Russo will have an advantage against a Tulane offense that has given up over 400 yards a game through the air. 

Tulane will rely on their running game averaging 232 yards per game (9th in the country).  Stephon Huderson leads Tulane with 397 rushing yards along with 3 TDs while Cameron Carroll has a team-high 7 touchdowns to go along with 341 rushing yards.

Temple is averaging 34 points, Tulane is averaging 36 points.  Add those together and you get 70 points per game. These two teams are a combined 5-1-1 to the over this season and it will continue on Saturday.  

Pick: Over 59.5

Oklahoma Sooners -14 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oklahoma is coming off of two straight ATS covers against Texas and TCU.  They will continue to run their way through the Texas teams on Saturday versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Sooners have not only won their last two but they also covered both of those games.  Matching up with Texas Tech  should allow for fireworks for Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler. 

Texas Tech is coming off of a game where they gave up 438 yards against a subpar West Virginia offense.  They will face a major step up in offensive competition.   The Red Raiders have given up tons of yards through the air.  The secondary has given up over 300 yards in three of five games this year and should be the fourth this weekend.  

This comes down to the fact that Texas Tech will not be able to get enough pressure on Rattler to force turnovers.  The Oklahoma defense made an appearance last week holding TCU to just 14 points.  Texas Tech will have no chance to keep up with the pace of the Sooners. 

Pick: Oklahoma Sooners  -14

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11 at Syracuse Orange

Wake Forest is coming off of an upset win over Virignia Tech where they were eleven pount underdogs.  The win is their third straight.  They have won by causing turnovers, 10 in total over their last three victories.  Wake is at a +10 turnover margin in their victories. 

Syracuse is coming off of a “moral” victory by covering the spread against the vaunted Clemson Tigers.  Their performance against Clemson has given the market a false idea taht Syracuse is better than they really are.  Syracuse lost starting QB Tommy Devito early in the season against Duke.  Senior Rex Culpepper has not been good completing just 43% of his passes since taking over as the starter.  The lack of passing attack has killed the run game. Syracuse is only averaging 91 yard per game on the season.  

Much like the Demon Deacons, Syracuse has been turning opposing teams over (2.8 per game). Wake’s QB Sam Hartman has not thrown an interception this season.  He is considered a game manager that will not look to throw the ball down field.  In this matchup he won’t need to.  He will rely on the two-headed running monster.  Sophomore Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 449 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Junior Christian Beal-Smith has added 71 carries for 385 yards and four scores, picking up 5.4 yards per attempt.

Syracuse has had a tough schedule.  They sit at the bottom of college football giving up nearly 500 total yards.  The run game will dominate and Sam Hartman will do enough to keep the defense honest.  This matchup reminds me of the Orange’s matchup with Liberty earlier this year.  Wake Forest will control the ball with the run game

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11

Overall Season Picks Record: 6-3

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct.14

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Navy Midshipmen -2 at East Carolina Pirates

East Carolina has given up a lot og yards on the ground.  The Pirates rank 126th in the nation against the run.  The bread and butter of the Navy offense is on the ground.  Navy’s ability to run will allow them to control the clock and keep the high powered East Carolina offense off the field. 

Navy has had great success over their conference going 5-0 ATS in their last five games.  East Carolina is just 1-9 straight up in their last ten. Navy’s run game will be too much to handle, they win this one easily due to their ball control.  

Pick: Navy -2

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Both teams are coming off of great offensive showings last week.  Georgia Tech put up 46 points versus the Louisville Cardinals, while Clemson continued their dominance putting up 41 against Virginia and 42 against Miami. These two teams have the ability to run and control the clock but they still move quickly and pick up yards in chunks.  Clemson ranks 10th in yards per play while Georgia Tech surprisingly ranks 28th.  

Clemson is a 27 point favorite in this game and they will likely be emptying the bench in the 4th quarter.  They will be able to coast at the end which will provide the opportunity for the Yellow Jackets to put up some points late in the game.  This one should be a scoring factory.  Lots of points and a blow out.

Pick: Over 64

North Carolina Tarheels -13.5 at Florida State Seminoles

Living in a world of North Carolina being a double digit favorite on the road against Florida State is the world we live in right now.  The Tarheels come into this matchup looking to continue to establish themselves as a serious contender in the ACC.  The Seminoles are just looking to salvage a bit of credibility as they continue to rebuild.  

Florida State replaced James Blackmon at QB with versatile sophomore Jordan Travis.  He showed signs of life from the Seminole offense, outscoring powerhouse Notre Dame in the first quarter until reality took over and Notre Dame blew them out the rest of the way. Travis though will likely not be able to play on Saturday which means they have to go back to Blackmon which has been less than successful. 

Florida State gave up 353 rushing yards to Notre Dame last week and now have to go up against the two headed monster Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.  Combined they have rushed for almost 700 yards and eight touchdowns.  The Tarheels need to not only win this game but do it in convincing fashion.  They will roll over the Seminoles by three touchdowns. 

Picks: North Carolina -13.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 2-1

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct 10

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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Liberty Flames -19

The Liberty Flames offense is overwhelming.  They average 81 plays per game, which is top 15 in all of college football. Dual threat quarterback Mailk Willis had the offense moving in their week one upset of Western Kentucky.  The Auburn transfer rushed for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns in against the Hilltoppers leading to a victory as 14.5 point dogs.  

The Flames followed up their upset victory with two more wins over Nortern Alabama and FIU. Both games missed the cover but the momentum of the victories should have them ready to take care of business against the lowly Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. ULM gives up rushing yards in bunches ranking 127th in college football against the run.  Willis should be able to control the game with his ability to run and his sneaky passing attack.  

Liberty is a veteran team that has won seven consecutive games at home dating back to last year and they will not look past ULM.  ULM is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home. 

Pick: Liberty -19

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -2.5 

Two teams that have underperformed to start the season meet in a rivalry game that will have a lot less impact on the college football playoff than most would have thought at the beginning of the season.   These two teams are both in need of a win and a statement game.  

Sooner redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has been a roller coaster in his first three starts throwing for 290, 387, and 300.  He has had a problem with turnovers in the clutch with four picks against Big 12 opponents.  The pressure will be on in his first go round in the Red River Showdown.  His matchup with the Texas Longhorns will be favorable. Texas is coming off back to back games giving up 56 and 33 to Texas Tech and TCU respectively.  

Texas will have senior Sam Ehlinger running the offense looking for a big win in his final showdown with Oklahoma. The Texas offense is averaging 518 yards and 51 points per game.  Oklahoma has not shown the ability to stop anyone this season and a veteran team that is desperete for a win will be a problem.  

Both teams have great offenses, they will show them off this weekend.  I look for Ehlinger to make the big play down the stretch to win but I am more comfortable with taking the over. 

Pick: Over 72 (lean Texas ML)

LSU Tigers -14 at Missouri Tigers 

This game was supposed to be played at Baton Rouge, due to hurricane Delta this game was moved to Columbia, Missouri.  The move caused a line change from -20 to -14.  Missouri is 1-9 ATS in their last ten games.  They have given up 35 and 38 respectively over their last two games.  Matching up with an LSU offense that isn’t the same national title contending group but they are still no walk in the park. 

Missouri found some offense once they inserted Connor Bazelak into the lineup over TCU transfer Shawn Robinson. They will have to be on their game early because if they let LSU grab a lead they still haven’t figured out how to turn yardage into touchdowns.   

Missouri’s inability to get stops on third down crushed them last week against Tennessee.  If they can’t get off the field their defense will wear down. LSU QB Myles Brennan has thrown for 330 or over in each game along with seven touchdowns   If he finds it early and grabs a lead they will coast the rest of the way. 

Pick: LSU -14

CBB pick ATS Jan. 21

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Florida Gators at LSU Tigers -2.5

Florida’s had a disappointing start 2019-2020 campaign.  Their loss to Missouri on January 11th was not only bad, it was downright embarrassing.  Florida has bounced back with two straight victories and covers versus Ole Miss and Auburn.  The Florida defense has been outstanding all season and they were able to shut down Auburn the entire game holding the undefeated Auburn Tigers to just 47 points.  

LSU is currently on a six game win streak, currently being undefeated in the SEC.  The Tigers will face their stiffest competition within the league. 

Florida’s offense has not been great most of the season but they have seemed to find it in SEC play averaging 80 points per game in their five games.  Florida will be able to cause problems for the LSU offense with Kerry Blackshear and 6-10 freshman Omar Payne both controlling the paint. Florida has found their mojo as they have begun to play well as all the new pieces are beginning to fit together.  Mike White has found the right mix that works. The Gators were a top ten team to begin the season and they will begin their climb back up the NCAA rankings.  

Pick: FloridaGators +2.5 

Texas Tech Red Raiders at TCU Horned Frogs +3

Texas Tech has the best player on the court in guard Jahim’us Ramsey.  Ramsey will have trouble tonight versus Jamie Dixon’s TCU defense. Known for their tight man to man coverage should be a problem for Ramsey but the Red Raiders have more to offer on the offensive end than just their freshman guard.  Kyler Edwards, Davide Moretti and Chris Clarke are all offensive options that can be a problem for the Horned Frogs. 

The Red Raiders have been streaky all season but have wins over Louisville, Iowa State and Kansas State were all wins that show the potential they have to take over the Big12.  Texas Tech will have the advantage on the offensive end, the key will be to keep TCU off of the boards. TCU is just 4-7 ATS the spread at home in 2019-2020, Texas Tech is also 5-0-1 in their last six versus the Horned Frogs.

Texas Tech is in need of another signature win and their ability to utilize multiple players on the offensive end should be enough to cover.

Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3

Two Wildcats cover- NCAAB Picks ATS Jan. 4

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Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats -8

The Missouri Tigers are coming off of a route of Chicago State.  Not exactly a good warmup for the #17 team in the country coming off of their biggest win of the season over rival Louisville.  The Wildcats come into this with a clear size advantage, Missouri’s leading rebounder is guard Mark Smith averaging just 4.9 per game. They are going to be at a serious disadvantage on the boards.  Kentucky can bring multiple bigs at the Missouri defense including Nick Richards and EJ Montegomery. Missouri will not get many, if any second chance opportunities while the Wildcats should be wild on the offensive boards.  

This game will feature the 25th (Missouri) and 26th (Kentucky) adjusted defenses according to Kenpom.  While they are both great on defense Mizzou ranks 117th in adjusted offense. Even if Mizzou is able to slow the game down, they are at such a huge disadvantage in size that is should be an easy win and cover for Kentucky.

Pick: Kentucky -8

Villanova Wildcats at Marquette Golden Eagles +1

I want to start by saying I love Markus Howard. One of my favorite players in the nation to watch.  Problem is that his team doesn’t always show up the way he does. They have to face off against a Villanova team that is as hot as they come currently in college basketball.  Winners of six straight including two wins over Xavier and Kansas. Villanova’s two loses came on the road against top ten teams Baylor and Ohio State. This game will be on the road but against a very different kind of opponent.  Both of the aforementioned losses were against much stiffer defensive competition ranking 4th (Ohio State) and 12th (Baylor) in Kenpom’s defensive rankings.  

Marquette is coming off of a loss to Creighton where they surrendered 92 points.  They have to bring more intensity on the defensive end to stand a chance. Marquette will keep this one close but they have not shown the ability to finish higher level competition with their best wins coming against Kansas State, Purdue and USC, none bring the potential firepower Villanova does.  

I like Villanova to establish themselves as the class of the tough Big East.  Should be fun but this is a day for Wildcats. 

Picks: Villanova -1

NCAAF Picks ATS

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Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs +18

Alabama just lost. That means someone is going to have to take a beating.  Mississippi State has had problems all year against talented quarterbacks allowing four straight to compete 71% of their passes.  The Bulldogs don’t have the defensive front to pressure Tua Taguvailoa at all.  If Tua is allowed to sit in the pocket, the secondary will be getting their sprints in before next weeks practice. having to chase down the Crimson Tide receivers as they enter the end zone over and over again. I see Jerry Juedy going for 200 yards on Saturday.

This will be the most focused team in the country this weekend.  The Mississippi Bulldogs are in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Shocking to me that this went from -21 to -18 .

 Pick Alabama -18

Massachusetts Minutemen at Northwestern Wildcats Total: 56.5

Northwestern can’t score. Averaging a shocking 11 points per game this season as well as the least efficient passing game in college football. Northwestern has only put up a total of 38 points over their last five games in total.  Obviously their inefficiencies were  against much stiffer competition, but I still can’t see a possible way that Northwestern puts up over 40 points in this game.  

A took a shot on Vandy/Florida game last week, assuming Florida would dominate but keep Vanderbilt off the board.  The difference here is I just can’t imagine Northwestern being able to put up the kind of points that they need to hit the over. 

Pick: Under 56.5

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears Total 67.5

Jalen Hurts has been better than his predecessors Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.  Seriously, look at the statistics 869 rushing yards and 24 throwing touchdowns.  Hurts has been everything Oklahoma could possibly want.  The problem will not be on the offense Saturday, the Sooners defense has shown an inability to stop competitive teams.  Iowa State  and Kansas State both put up 40 points against the Sooners offense. The Baylor Bears have been solid on offense this year ranking 26thin the nation in scoring, averaging 35.3 point per game this season.  

Baylor has hit the over at three of their four home games in this season and they should be able to move the ball enough put points on the board.  The Bears will put up a fight at home but the Oklahoma offense will be impossible to stop.  This game should be a shootout, this total is way to low.  Give me the over.

Pick: Over 67.5

Other Picks:

Florida -7

Memphis -10.5

West Virginia/Kansas State Under 47.5

Thursday Night Pick Steelers vs. Browns

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -3 

The Steelers have won four straight games propelling them into AFC playoff contention.   It’s been the defense that has taken the reigns with the loss of Big Ben and injury to James Conner. The Steelers defense has allowed fewer than 193 passing yards and 96 rushing yards over their last three games. Pittsburgh was able to bottle up the red-hot Cooper Kupp last week.  They will look to do the same to Odell Beckham. Beckham was targeted ten times last week but was still unable to make an impact in a game that Cleveland actually won. 

Cleveland’s offensive line has been solid on the run but has had serious problems protecting Baker in throwing situations. The Steelers are third in the league in sacks, while applying a ton of pressure.  Baker Mayfield has been subpar under pressure this season.  Mayfield has a completion percentage of just 37% while under pressure this season. Mayfield’s flaws are apparent, this matchup is not good for the struggling former #1 pick. 

Both of these teams need this win.  The Cleveland flaws are obvious.  Pittsburgh will be able to exploit those flaws while Mason Rudolph does what he does best: game manage.  Steelers are just a better overall team, most importantly better coaching. 

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3

NCAA Football Week Ten Picks ATS

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Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Golden Eagles -2.5

Boston College has been undervalued for the last few weeks (Excluding their matchup with Clemson). Florida State is dealing with inner turmoil after firing Willie Taggert mid-week.  Clemson was the only team that was successful in stacking the box to stop AJ Dillon.  Florida State will stack the box on Saturday but that won’t stop the 230-pound Junior running back.

Florida State has been bad on the road 0-3 while not covering the spread in any of those games. The Boston College running game will be able to wear down the Seminole defense which should allow for a dominate victory for the Golden Eagles. 

Boston College will be celebrating Senior day and Florida State has to many questions to trust them to cover this small spread.

Pick: Boston College Golden Eagles -2.5

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans -Total 45.5

This game is simple. Michigan State has hit he under in 13 of their last 16 games.  Illinois has hit the under in 4 of their last 5 games.  

Illinois has a mediocre offense.  They now face a defense that has dominated lesser competition.  Illinois has taken advantage of other teams’ mistakes, scoring 105 points off of turnovers this season.  Michigan State will not turn the ball over, look for them to run the ball and dominate the field.  Without the reliance on turnovers the Illinois offense doesn’t bring enough to the table on Saturday.  Boring game, easy under.

Pick: Under 45.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies +2

Virginia Tech is 1-4 against the spread at home.  That’s right they are terrible at home. They get a matchup with a Wake Forest team that comes in underrated once again this week.

The Virginia Tech secondary is getting loaded, allowing 340 yards or more in three of the last four games. Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman is coming off of one of his most impressive victories of the season, dominating NC State last week.  This is bad matchup for the Hokies as they don’t have the secondary to matchup.  Newman has a repeat dominant performance, one that will assure him the spot of ACC Offensive player of the year. 

I’m taking Wake and not worrying about it. 

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2

Other Picks:

LSU +6

Kentucky -1

Penn State -7

Georgia -16.5